I'm not bearish on the index. I'm bullish on sectors going up, which currently include commodities like lumber, and metals FCX X SLV GDX.
Would anyone ever establish a short position in lumber futures 3-4 moths out? The September ‘21 contract had a volume of 125 on Friday. I know these are illiquid and thinly traded but there will always be buyers after prices normalize.
Inflation raging everywere and the drunk fed printing to the sky . The fed must be brought to their knees to teach them the lesson since civilization started . You can’t print to the sky without retribution.
Lumber isn't the only thing increasing, so (as a former contractor) I would say that a 300% increase in the cost of lumber would easily suggest a $100k increase in total costs. Maybe more.
Is speculating in lumber futures out of the question due to liquidity? not sure I am familiar with what GS did shorting oil in 2008?
Did you build only one price house? I wouldn't think so. So why say $100k increase when some houses are built at a cost of 100k (granted not many) and some at a cost of 1mill or way more?