attached, a 1990 - current compilation of the Lumber futures, Case-Shiller prices and US building permits charts lumber prices were very bouncy during the 93H-04H period, 04 being the peak of lm price coinciding with C-S's '10 City Composite' price line H, tho permits continued to peak into 05/06 , and while lm and home prices have jumped, permits may take another drop tick min fluctuation $.10 / mbf ($11 per contract) Daily Price Limits $10 / mbf above or below previous day's settlement price; expandable to $15 / mbf the trading bang for buck is ok, but the daily volume is usually less than 1,000 , so a it's a B&H type of trading vehicle - - - whatever happened to plywood ?
found this NAHB index chart, interesting since it's quite different compared with the above, tops out in 1999
funny you point this out, i'm in the building biz and just went over these charts w/ some buddys last week( no knowledge of charting). here in the hamptons(new york) we're supposed to be "recession proof". work is pretty tough but there are houses still going up. mainly in the 1-3 mil range with larger ones also. btw 1 mil is entry level here. just when you think nobody else ever looks at charts like this.......
i initially thought lumber would have shown a tighter corelation with permits and not have all the ralliles to 400+ , and be predictive of house price and building but the permits and NAHB do a better job of that the other building product i was thinking of is copper but that doesn't work, especially after 2002 with the price going stratospheric i know little about the building business but surprised to some extent there's any new home building being done in the States at all with so much excess on the market, tho historically low mortgage rates is an incentive for new-builds then again i saw a report where one small builder got hit by his cc bank cutting his limit which he'd been using for revolving credit - can build but can't finance current NAHB charts: http://www.housingbubblebust.com/HsgData/NAHB/HMI.html maybe you should try Canada - 'Canadian housing market remains on fire' and etc: http://news.google.com/news/search?aq=f&um=1&cf=all&ned=ca&hl=en&q=canada+housing+market
ammo, didn't notice the h&s until you pointed it out ! - even tho it's massive !! what i saw was the Reversal formation at the top of 1999 there's something similar in 86 but none for 94, tho 95 has a small one forming a base, unfortunately that formation doesn't always appear even when you dig down to the smallest timeframe