lumber~Case-Shiller~permits chart

Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by Wallace, Dec 12, 2009.

  1. attached, a 1990 - current compilation of the Lumber futures, Case-Shiller prices and
    US building permits charts
    lumber prices were very bouncy during the 93H-04H period, 04 being the peak of lm price
    coinciding with C-S's '10 City Composite' price line H, tho permits continued to peak into
    05/06 , and while lm and home prices have jumped, permits may take another drop

    tick min fluctuation $.10 / mbf ($11 per contract) Daily Price Limits $10 / mbf above or
    below previous day's settlement price; expandable to $15 / mbf
    the trading bang for buck is ok, but the daily volume is usually less than 1,000 , so a it's
    a B&H type of trading vehicle - - - whatever happened to plywood ?
    • lcsp.pdf
      File size:
      85.6 KB
  2. found this NAHB index chart, interesting since it's quite different compared
    with the above, tops out in 1999
  3. risky63


    funny you point this out, i'm in the building biz and just went over these charts w/ some buddys last week( no knowledge of charting).
    here in the hamptons(new york) we're supposed to be "recession proof". work is pretty tough but there are houses still going up. mainly in the 1-3 mil range with larger ones also.
    btw 1 mil is entry level here.
    just when you think nobody else ever looks at charts like this.......
  4. i initially thought lumber would have shown a tighter corelation with permits and not have
    all the ralliles to 400+ , and be predictive of house price and building but the permits and
    NAHB do a better job of that
    the other building product i was thinking of is copper but that doesn't work, especially
    after 2002 with the price going stratospheric

    i know little about the building business but surprised to some extent there's any new
    home building being done in the States at all with so much excess on the market, tho
    historically low mortgage rates is an incentive for new-builds
    then again i saw a report where one small builder got hit by his cc bank cutting his limit
    which he'd been using for revolving credit - can build but can't finance

    current NAHB charts:

    maybe you should try Canada - 'Canadian housing market remains on fire' and etc:
  5. ammo


    there is a pretty nice head and shoulders finishing on your chart
  6. ammo, didn't notice the h&s until you pointed it out ! -
    even tho it's massive !!

    what i saw was the Reversal formation at the top of 1999
    there's something similar in 86 but none for 94, tho 95 has
    a small one forming a base, unfortunately that formation
    doesn't always appear even when you dig down to the
    smallest timeframe
  7. ammo


    that 2000-2001 pop was the plywood sent to the middleeast for the war
  8. wasn't there a plywood contract at one time ?
  9. ammo


    pm youngtrader ,his dad used to trade it