Just started reading Taleb - Fooled by Randomness... I love this distinction... At what point does a lucky idiot become a skilled investor, if ever? And can a skilled investor turn into a lucky idiot? What percentage of lucky idiots think they are skilled investors? And what % of skilled investors think of themselves as lucky idiots? Yours truly, A Skilled Idiot...
Never. Idiots do not move up the learning curve. No. Skilled investors do not rely on "luck". A high percentage. Zero. Basic Logic. The Taleb book is compulsory reading. Understanding the concepts presented must become ** second nature **. If this book is hard for a person to grasp... Then that person surely has many erroneous beliefs about the markets.
The real question is: If you made a million dollars in the market this year, would you really give a damn? If I could, I wouldn't.
I think the real questions are - Do you have to be an idiot to be lucky ? Or do you have to be lucky to be an idiot?
Depends what constitutes luck... some would argue that luck is merely right thinking, which translates to creation/manifestation... if this is true... what an edge
See this 2001 article: http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/business/vc093.shtml "...the Mercer Island billionaire has liquidated ownership positions in Priceline.com, Egghead.com, Internap, Viewpoint Corp., Allegiance Telecom and Zany Brainy. He didn't exercise an option to buy more of online financial news site TheStreet.com. And he pulled the plug on Bellevue-based Mercata in January. On top of that, Allen last year sold $8.5 billion worth of Microsoft Corp. -- the software company he co-founded with high school buddy Bill Gates in 1975. During the 1990s, Allen and his team at Vulcan Ventures were some of the most bullish technology investors pumping billions of dollars into more than 100 Internet, media and communications companies. The investments ranged from the high-profile and now-defunct Internet film studio Pop.com to online postage company Stamps.com. All were to be building blocks in Allen's so-called wired world strategy. Now Allen's trusted money manager, Bill Savoy, says Vulcan's portfolio of publicly traded tech companies has dwindled to the point where "I don't have a whole lot left to sell,"... Also, see ownership history of Charter Communications, Telescan, and many more.