Lucky 10 year bond trade and

I have been shorting the Short the 10 year bonds all week and last week and doing pretty well. I exited all posiitons last nite because I had a pretty nice profit. Been short since 109270.

Anyway, I think they will head lower so of course I was pissed when I woke up this morning and they where much lower at 107280. I figured if they rally I would sell again right below the 13day ema at about 108100. I put my limit order in and left for work.

It just so happens I got filled at the high of the day. That trade worked out great and I have a nice profit. I learned a few lessons.

1) Having a plan to trade really helps, and is rewarding when a trade works out.

2) Patience is key. It was killing me to leave that plumeting market this morning and not jump in for a ride. However, I held out and had some luck.

On a final note why on earth did teh 30 year rally so strongly at the close today? I also managed to short those as well at 112260

Regards,
Steve

 

That's some nice top picking at 110' Steve... I got outta my longs on the way down, finally got into a short, after patiently waiting for the 30's supply to hit the market... Yes, it's hard sitting on your hands when you have a good feeling about getting in...

 

Btw,

My short for the nasdaq 100 was missed by 1 point today. I figured NQ would rise today then sell off so I placed a short for 1690 alas!!!!!!! the high was 1689. I guess I cannot hit them all. I would been almost 30 points to the good for the NQ's.

Back to bonds, I think they will continue to drop after all the mania for the 30 year settles out. It is amazing the low yields that people will buy these bond at. Bonds usuually drop nicely after the auction so hang on for the ride

Here is the news article http://www.bloomberg.com/news/markets/bonds.html

Regards,
Steve

 

Tens actually have a strong tendency to end the refunding week above Monday's close, 11 of the last thirteen to be exact, by an average of 8 bp, roughly a 16 tick futures gain. I guess we'll see. Two thirds of the time, the market is higher the following week.

 

could not have been more wrong about a rally

 

Key point for the ten year is 4.60%... There is absolutely a realistic reason why there would be a rally after an auction, nobody bidding for on-the-runs would wanna pay a premium for these things if they want to flip them out... Just that this time maybe the 30s were already pushing yields down too much.

 

I am still sort the 30 year and the Ten year. I t has been a great trade so far. I actual;ly got worried when you gave me your historical analysis, but I stuck with my system.

Regards
Steve