Trader's Edge = Method + Execution Luck = Probability of a single trade Trading without a plan = Luck - Costs Trading with a plan = Luck - Costs + Trader's Edge
Blackjack dealers holding a 6 ... stock in an uptrend and just broke consolidation... odds still 50/50?....maybe.....luck? Called putting probabilities in your favour ain't it. Luck managment maybe... Are you gonna double up when the dealers holding an ace? Are you gonna buy Kmart 2 days ago? Luck...come on.... Pro i think the answer to that question is yes but i can't remember where i read it.
dottom, this is <b>great</b>! If we cannot calculate "Edge" ( expected outcome ) and luck factor, then we will rely on luck... Why casinos set maximum bets? Because even in a positive expectancy games there's a chance of bankruptcy. Casinos have an edge over gamblers. But it doesn't mean that the casino can't go bankrupt. If a gambler has a huge luck... s/he can win all casino's money! Casinos make a lot of $$$. Is it because people who run casinos are smart and super-intelligent people? They have skills? No! They make money because a lot of (stupid?) people are playing their negative-expectancy games! DT-waw
Protrader1, after my first app.50 trades in futures markets I ended up breaking even. Entries were dumb, dumb and dumber. Much worse then random. When I looked back I realized I still could have made the profit if I managed those trades properly. At that time I understood for the first time why the pros emphasize the exits!
Pro, No that wasnt the point I was trying to make... Actualy I already knew the answer... On a MICRO level the outcome of each and every trade is random and comes down to chance... I just dont think many traders really understand that... And that is where 99% of the mental errors come from... When you completely understand that, than you can let go of longing and aversion, hope and fear, memory and expectation, because quite frankly you see how absurd they really are... Cesko, I just started trading the e-minis today... you have any tips for a newbie (man that sounds wierd to say after trading for 10years)... anway i would appreciate any help that you could give me... PEACE and good trading all, Commisso
MICRO = Chance (nothing more, nothing less) MACRO = Probability (either in your favor or not depending upon ones edge)
If your point is on the "micro" level the outcome of each and every trade is random, ie 50%, then you must also conclude that on the "macro" level the outcome remains 50%. I don't agree with this. If this is true, there is no "edge". Is this what you are asserting?
If you flip a coin a single time the probability it lands on heads is 50%. If you do it 1,000 times the probability is the same that you will get 50% heads. If the coin is slightly weighted to one side then the individual and the overall probability may be 53% heads 47% tails. So I postulate that a trader with an edge does have a greater than 50% advantage on every single trade, as well as over the long run. I personally am weighted the wrong way and average only 49% success on my trades. However, I haven't had a losing week in 6 months.
I've always had problems with the coin flipping scenario being 50/50 everytime you flip. I understand mathematically it should be 50% heads 50% tails, however what are the chances of getting 100 straight heads? I mean if after 99 consecutive heads, it feels 'wrong' to have a 50% chance of getting heads still... wouldn't the chance of getting a pattern of 100 consecutive heads come into play? (something like 1 in 2*100?) which would make a tail more likely??
No, the odds remain 50%. You are just as likely to get either a heads or tails. each successive outcome (coin flip) is independent of the previous flip. The coin has no "memory" of previous outcomes and cannot influence future outcomes. However, the chances of getting 99 heads in a row is very improbable.