dg, old faithful, did Friday make the cut? interesting that some downgrades were faded on Thursday. even if there's a spike down (and corresponding spike up in VIX), this could be the season turning (i'm not convinced at the moment. just raising the possibility). chas
No not even close. I did not run the numbers but Yahoo.finance shows 55/45 up/down volume. Unless it is a clearly extreme day, I don't bother withdoing the calculations. Besides the 90% down day last week, there was one almost 90% end of January, and there may be more coming. IMO, people are getting fooled into long positions. New lows are likely on the horizon. War will come and go (quickly I hope), but the same features of the stock market will remain.
can't wait to see what happens today. if i recall, the 'back to back' high vol' days can actually be a few days apart, no? man... the green on my screen is burning my eyes and i played things reaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaally close to the vest today owing to some brilliant shakeouts and trade throughs. it's monday morning. i was tired. my bad.
March 17 was a "90% upside day" in Lowry's nomenclature and, more critically, it was preceded by 90% downside days on March 10 and Jan. 27. http://www.thestreet.com/markets/aarontaskfree/10076982.html
Yes Babak, 90% down on 3-10 followed by 90% up on 3-17. This back to back has been often followed by an intermediate term rally, and if many other factors present , which are not now, a new bull. However, there was a 90% down day on 3-24. I 3 Mondays in a row with alternating and diametrically opposite results. Interesting times.
5-19-03 NYSE Point down: 88.8% Volume down: 89.44% SP-500 Points down: 99.08% Volume down: 96.46% The SP-500 had a severe distribution day. Days like this were occurring last year during the July meltdown.
I read the article in Barron's about a series of 90% days marking a new bull. Do these latest readings negate that? What is the significance, if any?
I believe a series of 90% up days tends to be more significant than a series of 90% down days. I think the general rule of thumb is something like double 90% up happening within three months signals change in trend.