Low Volatility eery

Discussion in 'Trading' started by duard, Jan 24, 2006.

  1. duard

    duard

    2% Friday, then tight ranges Mon and Tuesday?

    Weird.

    Small cap rally?

    I think I'm clueless here!!!

    Throw me a frickin' bone.
     
  2. "When you see excessive volatility, be careful; when you don't see excessive volatility, be doubly careful." Victor Niederhoffer (The Education of a Speculator)

    My long term volatility figures have been rising recently (with days like last Friday...), but that's after hitting a 10 year low.
     
  3. Verylikely that we are seeing a round of short covering and bargain hunting. The puny close today seems to suggest further downside pressure.
     

  4. i saw that last night with the aapl/dis deal. massive short covering on nasdaq level2 in extended hours
     
  5. yeah what to make of small caps making new alltime highs while sp500 struggling not to breakdown...this is opposite to what small caps' (Russell2K) normal behavior at least in the last 6mos.

    My question is whether the Rus2K is the last to peak or what????
     
  6. Look at Amex yesterday only index to be negative. Looks like a small cap trap being set. With month end coming there might be a slight delay before slide sets in.
     
  7. you're right...monthend could mark the top in Russell2K which would make all major indices topped in an orderly fashon: first sp500 and last Russell2K

    -- which index will race on the downside..my bet is small cap ..Russell 2K
     
  8. Sounds like everyone's bearish on small caps. It must be time to buy.
     
  9. you may be right in the very short-term, but small caps have outperformed large caps for 5 straight years and it could be in the last stretch -- may be too late
     
  10. cnms2

    cnms2

    Niederhoffer was a naked premium seller, which actually led to his demise. Obviously he had to be more than double careful on low IV, and still got caught with his pants down twice.
     
    #10     Jan 25, 2006