If that is how you feel, a good time to lay down the bet would be right after Romney picks his VP, i remember last election when McCain picked Palin, it was good for about a 10 pointt jump on intrade right off the bat, and it slowly tapered off once Palin started talking. The exact same thing happened with Obama, when he picked Biden as his VP it was good for a 10 point jump which slowly tapered off after words. Intrade has a tendency to react violently to minor news, and then revert, i think it is because of the way the news cycle works where every single channel covers the same story, and things end up getting over hyped. I think you could easily get Obama back at 50, which would make it a hundred percent return if you just hold off until the VP is picked. Plus that way you eliminate all the unknown variables, and you dont have to hold the position as long. Also you might not get 50 again, but I GUARANTEE you that after the VP is picked you will easily get 60 again. There is no point in throwing the trade on right now.
msnbc thinks it will be this McDonald fellow. If Mittens is dumb enuf to do that, then it is a wrap. He is from Virginia, since I know that you watch Maddow, et. al. I will not bother with a link.
Purely from a trading standpoint, i dont think it matters who he picks as his VP, hell if both Biden and Palin were good for a 10 point jump on intrade for their respective parties, its pretty muxch proof he could pick just about anyone, and once the news cycle takes over and all they are talking about is the VP, it will be good for a 10 point bounce on intrade, at which point you can go long, and watch it slowly revert back to wherer it was trading at before.
Even if Obama goes to 65, you will still have an opportunity to get him at 60, or 55 at some point after the VP pick, or the next time there is some world crisis, or dip in the markets. The only way i think he gets to 70+, would be if Romney, or Santorum is caught in some kind of sex scandal from their past after they were nominated, or something like that, and I think due to the fact that they are both hard core bible thumpers, we all know that isnt going to happen. Thus I agree with you, you will most likely be able to get 50 again, but i know FOR SURE you could easily get 55-60 again, Maverick was correct about this, and i think the timing to place the trade is right after the VP pick.