Louis Gave: «Inflation Will Come Back With a Vengeance»

Discussion in 'Economics' started by BKR88, Jan 11, 2021.

  1. Sig

    Sig

    Its a lot more complex now than in the 70s when that metric mattered a lot more. Now if wage growth gets out of hand (indicating a labor shortfall) the whole world can act to alleviate a big chunk of that labor shortfall when it comes to producing goods. And we've managed to squeeze immigration almost to a halt, just going back to historic levels leads to downward pressure on wages when it comes to services. It's much more of a stable feedback loop now than it once was.
     
    #11     Jan 15, 2021
  2. Where's the inflation going to come from? Velocity is in the dumps. People are anxious about the future and more inclined to save than to spend like mad. The Fed does NOT (and is legally forbidden to) monetize the federal deficit. Money creation is done through bank loans, but banks have not loosened their lending standards (if anything, the opposite), and qualified borrowers mostly have enough debt that they are less eager than in the past to borrow more. QE is not inflationary because it is just "bank reserves" that circulate in the banking system and are not, with infrequent and minor exceptions, allowed into the real economy. Because the money supply is not increasing (yes, I know there was that strange M2 spike in late 2020, which I suspect is some sort of artefact of how M2 is measured, but it was a short lived anomaly), wages are not rising and if consumers spend more money on some things, they will have to spend less money somewhere else. That leaves net inflation at close to nothing. BTW, Louis Gave thinks Communist China has a wonderful economic model. That should tell us enough about his judgment on economic matters.
     
    #12     Jan 30, 2021
  3. piezoe

    piezoe

    interesting thread. thanks to all contributing.
     
    #13     Jan 31, 2021