Well, when I was first putting this journal together I wasn't quite sure of the format I wanted to use. That is why you see some variation throughout. Essentially I am still sticking to my MM rules but in the process of tweaking them slightly. So for consistency sake, I will now make all my calls in this order. Sell Euro/USD at 1.2344 Stop 1.2366 Initial Target 1.2300 Capital used 10% Thank you for bringing this point up. Part of the reason I started this journal was to help in developing more consistency with my trades. Basically I only have three different capital settings 20%,10%, and 2%. When to use each of these is determined by a quality rating of each trade. While I haven't done enough back testing to determine how effective it has been, I do feel personally more comfortable using this simple MM structure. The main reason is because it give me more of a structure to my trading. I think this is important because the insane leverage FOREX allows you really requires to watch exactly how much your are putting up. Putting up 80% each time is a guarantee to get blown out by the end of the day.
I bounce between my trading platform and ET quite frequently. I usually make my order first then type up my post, so there is probably a few minutes delay. According to my platform, I placed the order at 3:25 am ( ugh I hate how all the clocks are inconsistent). That would make it about 2:25 my time. I guess that would be 6:25 for you. Where are you at out of curiosity? I am in Texas.
Thanks for your feedback. How about the margin ratios you use when associated with these %? What would be the maximum number (say 3 or 5 trades consecutively) of losing streak you would estimate from your system? Would like to see one day a trade you use 20% capital.
My quality rating goes something like this. If there is a major news announcement coming out, I will use 2% because you can never be sure how the market is going to react. If the technical factors look good on the longer tern charts (4, 8, and Daily) and okay on the One hour and less, I will use 10%. Sometimes, I will average into the position. If it is just one of those setups that call out to me, then I will use 20%. Yeah, there is a bit of discretion. This is definitely not a mechanical system.
For the last three months it stands at somewhere over 70% for winners to losers. I have been doing pretty well so far with about 8 winners in row. Before that, though, it was more like 27%. The change which helped me was to stop looking at the shorter time frames and take less trades overall. I stop trying to call every little move out there and only concentrated on the ones which fit my particular mindset. I'll figure out how to post some charts someday for a visual demo of my logic. It looks to me that it so gettting ready to bust through 1.23. Time will tell.
But I actually just use the free REFCO charts. They sometimes have the anoying habit of locking up ( and when that happens I get immediately out of the trade, not going to trade blind). They have all the TA features I need and they let me draw all kinds of lines all over them. That's another great thing about FOREX, all the free stuff they give you with it (charts and platforms). I don't see how those people who trade futures can make any money unless they have an account well over 100K.
I look at the 4 hour, 8 hour and daily to decide direction and type of trading day I might be encountering. I use the 15 and 5 to determine entry. Looking at the 15 right now (with the help of the MACD) give me the sense that we should see a drop (20+) within 45 minutes or so. Now I am not certain of this, but at least by having an opinion on the particular direction and time frame it should occur in, it gives me a point of view of the market. If I am right, then I just need to manage the trade to the best of abilities. If I am wrong, I just need to decide when to get out and whether this represents a move in the opposite direction.