Lou Dobbs on "Population Explosion" in the United States.

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August 22, 2008

SouthAmerica: Last night Lou Dobbs had 3 experts on the subject of population on his television show on CNN discussing the coming population explosion in the United States. They are estimating that in the next 30 years the population in the United States is going to increase by 50 percent from the current 305 million people to about 450 million people.

Lou Dobbs was going crazy about the economic impact that such population explosion is going to have in the United States.

I published an article in April of 2000 about population and I used the population in the United States as an example on that article.

Lou Dobbs is right when he was going bananas about the impact that the population increase is going to have in the quality of life and standard of living of Americans.

Basically today Americans are doing everything they can to turn their country into a major Banana Republic.

Very few people in the United States have a clue about what population increases are doing to their country.

Most Americans don’t have the capability of connecting the dots even to be able to save their own lives and I would not expect that they would understand the implications of population explosion which becomes even more complex in the coming decades because of technological innovations.

Let me explain a little further because most people don’t have a clue regarding what I talking about. In a nutshell: at least 75 percent of the jobs being done today in the United States can be replaced immediately by current technology.

In 1995, a book was published, "The End of Work" by Jeremy Rifkin, which described in detail the current and future trends in the job market. I recommend reading that book to anyone who wants to understand the current catastrophic job market.

I will quote the following from Jeremy Rifkin's mind-opening book. He wrote in the introduction: "Global unemployment has now reached its highest level since the great depression of the 1930's. More than 800 million human beings are now unemployed or underemployed in the world.

...In the past, when new technologies have replaced workers in a given sector, new sectors have always emerged to absorb the displaced laborers. Today, all three of the traditional sectors of the economy—agriculture, manufacturing, and services—are experiencing technological displacement, forcing millions onto the unemployment rolls. The only new sector emerging is the knowledge sector, made up of a small elite of entrepreneurs, scientists, technicians, computer programmers, professional educators and consultants. While this sector is growing, it is not expected to absorb more than a fraction of the hundreds of millions who will be eliminated in the next several decades in the wake of revolutionary advances in the information and communications sciences.

...Now, for the first time, human labor is being systematically eliminated from the production process. ...Substituting software for employees...To begin with, more than 75 percent of the labor force in most industrial nations engage in work that is little more than simple repetitive tasks. Automated machinery, robots, and increasingly sophisticated computers can perform many if not most of these jobs. In the United States alone, that means that in the years ahead more than 90 million jobs in the labor force of 124 million are potentially vulnerable to replacement by machines. With current surveys showing that less than 5 percent of companies around the world have even begun to make the transition to the new machine culture, massive unemployment of the kind never before experienced seems all but inevitable in the coming decades…..


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On its new edition of “The End of Work” published in 2000 – Rifkin said: “In 1995, 800 million people were unemployed or underemployed. Today, more than a billion people fall in one of these two categories.

… Based on current and projected trends in the agriculture, manufacturing, and service sectors, in the year 2050, less than five percent of the human population on earth -working with and alongside intelligent technology-will be required to produce all the goods and basic services needed by the human race.”

Source: http://www.jobsletter.org.nz/art/rifkin05.htm

Note: The latest population estimates shows that the total global population will increase to 9 billion people by 2050. That means that only 450 million people out of 9 billion people will have jobs in 2050.

In 2050 the total population of the United States it is estimated to be around 450 million people.


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Here is the article published in 2000 when I wrote about population.


Brazzil Magazine – July 1, 2000

“Overpopulated”

Brazil started the century with 17 million people and ended it with an estimated total population of 170 million people. When the population of a country grows ten fold during a period of 100 years, that country is asking for social trouble, as is happening in Brazil.
Written by Ricardo C. Amaral

Source: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...85&highlight=population+explosion#post1023285

I posted the above information on the Elite Trader Forum on March 29, 2006.


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July 2000 – “Overpopulated”
http://www.brazzil.com/component/content/article/67-july-2000/6963.html

This article was originally published as the cover story of “The Brasilians” in April 2000, and it was published on Brazzil magazine in July 2000.

By the way, regarding that cover story published by "The Brasilians" newspaper - usually "The Brasilians" have many stories on its front cover as in most newspapers, but in that particular month my story took the entire cover of the newspaper - what the editor of that newspaper did was he printed a map of Brazil that took the entire front page of the newspaper then he filled the entire map with little heads of people - white, black, native Brazilian indians and so forth, but just looking at the cover you already got the idea about what the article was all about.

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The population explosion is a natural extension of allowing in so many illegal mexicans. They exhibit the breeding pattern of rabbits.

The united states is being replaced with a lower quality black and hispanic gene pool. The average black wants to sing and dance all day and will never find productive work, the hispanics think working illegally at the meat cutting factory entitles them to the same govt. entitlements that blacks are currently given.

Not a super power for more than 1 more generation.

 

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August 22, 2008

SouthAmerica: Reply to arealpissedqoy

I assume that you did not take the time to read my article about population and you have not grasped what I was trying to say.

The United States has passed the optimum number for its total population a long time ago and adding more people to the US population it is just going to make the population problem even worse in the future.

There is no free lunch and Americans are going to pay the price in the future for their lack of common sense regarding the US population growth.

Here I am quoting from that article as follows:

…“In the United States, Americans built an economic system in which the economy has to grow, grow and grow, and can't be allowed to stagnate.

Growth, growth, and more growth is the mindset of Americans. The United States had only five million people around 1800, when its Constitution and Bill of Rights were drafted and put into effect. The United States population had increased to 76 million people by 1900, but they had new lands, which they had bought or conquered since 1800. The United States could still afford to continue growing at that point in its history."

Today there are many studies estimating the optimum population the United States can support based on its resources, wealth, location, environmental considerations and type of economic structure. "Among these studies is one by David and Marcia Pimentel, professors at Cornell University. They suggest the United States should aim at a population of less than 100 million people. University of Maryland professor Robert Costanza reaches a more pessimistic estimate of 85 million people."

Based on the various studies it seems that up to 150 million people can be an acceptable limit of population for the United States. Above this number Americans are looking for trouble.

The United States reached the 151 million people mark in 1950; by 1970 the US had increased its population to over 200 million people. The country again increased its population to an estimated 275 million people by the year 2000.

Is it really surprising that the prison population started exploding in the United States since 1970, after the optimum population for this country of 150 million continued growing in numbers?

With the accelerated advances in technology and automation which we have today in the United States, the optimum population for the United States probably should be reduced to an even lower amount of people. Maybe the country should not have a population larger than 120 million people.

Most people don't understand and don't give much thought to the power of geometric progression (exponential growth) and its effect on population growth. For example, to show the power of exponential growth, in the 1980's more than 10 million legal and illegal immigrants arrived in the United States. This group of people will grow in numbers to approximately 25 million people by the year 2035.

To give another example, the estimated 25 million total legal and illegal immigrants who came to the United States during the 20-year period from 1980 to 2000, will grow to approximately 60 million people by the year 2040.

Government officials and the business community only think of their immediate needs of keeping labor costs down.

They never think about the consequence of a growing population on future generations and its impact on the future of the country.

Governments such as the United States and Brazil have learned nothing from the past. They brought slaves from Africa to accommodate their needs a long time ago, never giving much thought about the consequences of their actions on future generations.

Today the United States is making the same mistake again regarding its immigration policies. The US is still letting one million people immigrate to the US per year, even though today the United States has a population of 275 million people; a number which is probably double the optimum population.

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August 22, 2008

SouthAmerica: Most people have an idealized concept regarding population growth based on religious beliefs and a on a self-serving economic theory that expect these future generations to supply the tax revenue to support the old generations and their retirements.

Keep in mind these 2 figures as you read this information:

1) First the current population of the United States is 305 million people and you can check the figure grow at the following website:

http://www.census.gov/main/www/popclock.html


2) Today the United States prison system is incarcerating over 2.3 million people at an astronomic cost for the entire system.

The prison population in the United States went from about 200 thousand people in 1970 to about 2.3 million people in 2008.

Most Americans are not capable to connect the dots and figure out that there is a direct relation to population growth in the country and the population being incarcerated on its prison system.

And Americans are so stupid that they are outsourcing millions of jobs to other countries and creating an even bigger problem to its own society.

Americans also can’t figure out that millions and millions of people would never be a rocket scientist or a brain surgeon and that they need all these manufacturing jobs that they have been exporting to other countries to keep its own population employed.

Americans have a very short-term mindset and they can’t see much further into the future than the next day or the next year – and they can’t connect the dot to even be able to save their own lives.


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On my second book published in December 1998, I had an entire chapter about the prison system in the United States. And here I am quoting from information on that book:


Period 1930 - 1970

The United States population grew from 123 million people in 1930 to 203 million people in 1970. During this 40-year period the U.S. had a 65.0 % population growth.

The Federal and State Prison population in the United States grew from 129,453 prisoners in 1930 to 196,429 prisoners in 1970. During this 40-year period the prison population had a 51.0 % inmate population growth. (These figures do not include the people on county, municipal and local jails, but even if we did include them on our calculations, the totals would have changed at around the 50.0 % level).


Period 1970 - 1997

The United States population grew from 203 million people in 1970 to 269 million people in 1997. During this 27-year period the U.S. had a 33.0 % population growth.

The Federal and State Prison population in the United States grew from 196,429 prisoners in 1970 to 1,218,256 prisoners under Federal and State jurisdiction by June 30, 1997. During this 27-year period the Federal and State prison population had a 520.0 % inmate population growth (These figures do not include the people on county, municipal and local jails, if they were included the growth rate still would have been over the 500.0 % level using the equivalent base 27 years early.)


The near future estimated figures.

The United States population is estimated to grow from 269 million people at the end of 1997 to an estimated 299 million people in 2010. This represents an estimated population increase of 11.0 % in the next 13-year period.

The total number of people incarcerated in the U.S. prison and jail system which is estimated to be 1,800,000 people as of the end of 1997. Depending on how the United States gets its legal system to be even tougher, and criminalize itself to death, making any minor problem a reason to send people to jail or to prison, and keep them inside for longer periods of time (a trend which is already in an advanced stage in the U.S.) then we can make two estimates for the future.

The first a conservative estimate that we should have at least 2.5 million people incarcerated in the United States by the year 2010...

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Didn't you recently start a thread about an exodus from the U.S. and its economic impact? Now our population is about to explode? Which is it you stupid monkey? Go back to whatever shit-hole South American country you come from.

 

That's one million more welcomed to the welfare rolls.

I'm sure the average tax paying american is not too happy with the poor job their govt. is doing.

The US is imploding from the inside. Poor govt. policies and a population that seems to grow dumber each day. It doesn't need any external enemies to help expedite its demise.

 

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August 22, 2008

SouthAmerica: Reply to Chris 12000

These are completely different issues that we are talking about.

The exodus of illegal immigrants it will have an impact in the value of real estate in the areas where they used to live.

I guess that is a hard concept for you to grasp.

The population explosion that Low Dobbs is talking about it is a trend that has been going on for many decades and includes legal and illegal immigrants plus the population growth related to the regular American population.

Obviously you can't grasp the different of the impacts caused by each individual trend.

You are the type of person that if someone said that house prices were going down in the United States then immediately you would assume that the value of every single house in the country had to be going down.

Since you don't have the brain to figure out the difference of the two trends let me help you.

The exodus of illegal immigrants from the United States is something that has been going on for only about 2 years now or a little longer and it is the result of various events that happen to be going on during this period.

When the exodus is going to stop or be reversed I have no idea.

The discussion about population growth on the Low Dobbs show it is a long term trend and it is based on the period 2008 to 2050. We are talking about 42 years in this case.
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I do agree that demography is an EXTREMELY important factor.

It affects everything from economy to crime rate.

And it is not just about the population structure but also how the culture affects how everyone is given opportunity and rewarded. I hv just post a post on this:
http://elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?threadid=134581

Here is a website on demography. It is rather interesting and worths a read.
http://demographymatters.blogspot.com/

 

Do you realize what a pompus ass you sound like?

Bullshit. "can be replaced immediately" means there is a machine that can do the job available right now and at a financially viable price. No way - not even close.

Uh, you can read, right? Your quote says "in the years ahead", yet you stated "immediately". Huge difference. We aren't there yet, machines to replace 75% of the work force? You don't have a clue. Maybe the kind of work you can do (banana picking?) can be done by a machine but there is no way that 75% of the current US work force can be replaced by machines with current technology. Sorry charlie.

Oh, and if you do reply, please learn how to quote properly. Its obvious you don't have a clue but I'm sure if you try hard you can learn how to do it.

 

I'm not a US citizen and don't live in the US, but hey, if I wasn't British, I'd want to be American.
You can make out all sorts of logical sounding arguments, but real life is different. Life adapts and changes with circumstances.
Most anti-American stuff is pure jealousy.

I read these comments from Buffett just now:

"The prospects of being born in the United States are still better than being born anyplace else in the world," Buffett said. Buffett, the world's richest person according to Forbes magazine, added: "It has not paid to sell America short since 1776, and the time to start is not in 2008." He added that even if there are more debts to cover, the United States will have greater resources to pay them. "The pie gets larger over time," he said.

That says it all