Lot of Dangerous thinking appearing on this board

Discussion in 'Trading' started by brettman9, Mar 16, 2008.

  1. Lot of people expressing the opinion that the fed will 'save this market' with a rate cut if it gets real ugly

    That betrays a big factor here: The reason I got short right off the fed news and reversal on my earlier post is partly because I knew a ton of traders would make that mistake in reasoning (i.e., thinking 'they didnt hit the target rate, so they still have that ammo to fire')...

    For anyone who is a little new to this game: The distinctive characteristic about our present circumstances is that lower target rates don't have any effect on the situation. The big funds know that, so you won't see them buying. You will see them short the short squeeze.

    the problem is the banks aren't lending...at any rate. So a lower rate is a non-factor. The fed knows that too. So they will have to come up with something else.

    Just don't bet too heavily on it. If you're not short with conviction here, then you need to see the market shake me and my like out without any intervention before you get in the other way.

    The last thing the fed can afford is to come out and make a bold move, and get toppled over. If that happens, then this will turn in to something even I don't want to see.