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Lost 100K in one month, 50% wiped out, start to write journal

Discussion in 'Journals' started by lost100k, Jul 7, 2009.

buylo
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Quote from Tide31:

AIG - no way to value that I know of: Gov owns 80% and is owed $180 Bil. 1:20 reverse so that Goldman could short against margin deficiency was the joke this week.

You have all wildly spec stocks on. It looks like a customer of Datek's portfolio from 1990. Like your searcing for the next GOOG that you bought at .65 cents.

Rule 1 - never buy a stock under $1 (they are trading there for a reason).

Rule 2 - Never short a stock under $5; risk-reward is skewed usually.

Majority of your stocks violate these age old rules. I would liquidate and reevalute. You are not going to be up 100% to get your money back. With some savvy option plays (since you are comfortable with risk) and a balanced book you may get $20k back by year end. I would say the time for a major change is 9.30am tomorrow and not a minute later. This is without knowing anything about the actual names in your book except for 2 of them.

Good Luck!
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Timmay!! would disagree with you.

#41 Jul 9, 2009

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trader_david
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MRNA is a pumpie and dumpie. classic.

do not trade bio-stocks. they are too volatile. either way, you may get hit hard. if youshort itbefore thenews, youdead. ifyou boughtit, it keep dropping,you dead. ofcourse, that is not the truth. some maykeep rising afterthenews,but some justgoesback towhereit was,even worse.

bio-stocks are way too volatile. look at VNDA, DNDN....., you know the extent, if youhold overnight, better use options to minize the possible loss

Quote from lost100k:

My MRNA trade is an example or a lesson to show the bad thing of average down. I know the rule that do not put all eggs in one basket, so adding MRNA from 10K to 60K, which is 5% to 30% of the portfolio. I stopped out with 30K loss (15%) on a 30% of the portfolio.

I bought MRNA at around $3.5 in the day that news coming out their drug approved which is 100% up from previous day. I just wanted to take another 10%-20% to make $1000 on that $10000 position. Actually not so serious on that trade, it is just one of the trade I made. Though I realized that the news is not so exciting since it is just a re-labeling approval that day, the stock is down at $2.4. I add another $10000 at $2.4, average down, and hope to see it back to $2.8
then I can have less loss on that. I have never seen a stock drop that much and have no bound. This is the stock, no bound at all and drop to $1.9
the next day , announcing a new stock offer to some investor at $2. I add another $10000 at $1.9. If new investor buy at $2, I guess it will go up after that offering and I can break even. This would be like HEB. This stock has no bound at all for a single day, single hour with no any chance to get out. I add $30000 at $1.6 and stopped out all the position at $1.5. This is the bio-stock and I do not know when it will go up again after this wave and do not know how much it will further go down with the book value of $0.2. The loss is 30K.

Whole story about my loss on MRNA. One trade, average down, does not work.
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#42 Jul 9, 2009

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GTS
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Quote from lost100k:

AIG really has problems, but at this price, I think it is a good buy. I do not expect it goes to 100, but I think I will sell them at 30-40 range.

Yes, buy AIG is based on book value. Those fundamentals are on the desk, unless it bankrupt, goes to 0.

If I have a loss on AIG, I will accept it. As a whole part , it is 10% of the portfolio. I won't buy more than 10%.

If you see my long portfolios, you can see that all of them are banks which is heavily down in a month. I cannot say anything on this choice, just unknown how risky this long portfolio is since it is all in one sector. Anyone think bank sector will go down heavily further? I think the crisis is over based on Q2's earning report although there is a long way to get out the mud. The bank shares looks cheap at this price.
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http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a.SanYh6Y1EY

July 9 (Bloomberg) -- American International Group Inc., the insurer bailed out four times by the government,will likely have no value left for private shareholders after repaying the U.S., Citigroup Inc. said.

âOur valuation includes a 70 percent chance that the equity at AIG is zero,â said Joshua Shanker, an analyst at Citigroup, in a note to investors late yesterday cutting his price target on the New York-based insurer by more than half.
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#43 Jul 9, 2009

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trader_david
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from your list, you just did the opposite, are you doing financial suicide? or you are no brain...

#44 Jul 9, 2009

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Brandonf Sponsor
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When you finish up letting those little boys diddle you with your sick game of "London Bridges", you should get on the phone to your attorney and tell him that he sucks, coz I still have not heard from him. You will keep hearing from me until you either A) leave me the hell alone and stop ruining and shitting all over every single thread I post on (The majority of which I've been starting off by posting real content too that people will find useful before you come marching in to save the world) or B) you really get a lawyer. In that case I will know who you really are, and as a real person with a real business that I could prove actual damages with, I will get my own attorney and sue your stupid ass back. Neither of us will get very far with it, but the attorney's will both get a nice fee and I don't have any medical bills anymore, so I'm pretty sure I can outspend your stupid ass.

Quote from TraderZones:

Just watch. I suspect it is 70:30 odds he is.
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#45 Jul 9, 2009

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lost100k
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Down another 4.83% today, mainly by AIG. Covered PALM and shorted NVGN.

AIG 800 9.45 7560
MBHI 12000 0.68 8160
AMFI 12000 0.64 7680
ADVNB 22000 0.35 7700
CRBC 14000 0.52 7280
CNB 15198 0.49 7447

45827 0.54 (Leverage Long)

TRW -600 11.64 -6984
DYAX -3000 2.87 -8610
OSK -300 20.9 -6270
IVN -800 8.02 -6416
DDSS -3000 2.52 -7560
NVGN -1500 3.06 -4590
-40430 0.47 (Leverage Short)
Net Value 85232 1.01 (Leverage Total)

#46 Jul 9, 2009

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matgallis
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your play list seems tough... fighting trends is bad news

#47 Jul 10, 2009

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NevouS
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Lost100k are you insane do you even do research on these stocks fund/technically? No one here can help you like this. no one is going to analyze your position. take smaller positions like by 1/2 at least... better yet liquidate your account.

#48 Jul 10, 2009

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NKNY
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Quote from GTS:

Liquidate your account.

You're welcome.
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I would have to agree..... You cant think straight now. Get out and regroup...

#49 Jul 10, 2009

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NKNY
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Quote from lost100k:

One mistake can ruin all the life.

Average down, it is the cause make me loss 30K on MRNA. I was doing average down many times, and never has problem until this time. I have 200K in assets and 10K to buy MRNA at start. When MRNA goes down, I add more to 60K. Unfortunately, MRNA did not go back this time. I finally stopped out with 30K loss.
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You need to read a good book on position sizing and risk.

Trade your way to financial freedom comes to mind from Van Tharp.

Also, you never average down, especially with 30 % of your account in one trade. It's like playing with fire, all it takes is one disaster.

You need to understand its a numbers game. You need to understand expectancy, risk reward. Stop trading because your are only gambling now.

Good luck

Nick

#50 Jul 10, 2009

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