Vulcan, great comments about the time it takes to know this stuff; I really needed to hear that after losing a quarter of my account this month ($300k) shorting NDX & RUT. Made $200k my first 4 months of trading IC and thought I had it all figured out, then decided to try directional trading and got my ass kicked. I'm definately going back to "grinding it out" with neutral strategy with directional trades limited to some FOTM black swan on the side I'm worried most about; no pure directional trading for me. For those that wonder how I could lose 1/4 of my account - here's what I was thinking. The prior months working the condor, I would balance deltas too aggressively and get burnt on whipsaw. This month with the directional trading, I was determined to wait for the market to come back to me; of course, this is the one month it wouldn't come back to me and the losses just kept piling up. Definately learned my lesson about limiting losses!
GBP/USD exchange rate chart 30 minute intervals. Daytrader with long position stops loss about 1.48 on 25 March 2010. <img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=2784181 \img>
GBP USD exchange rate graph daily intervals. There may be long term support about 1.48. <img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=2784189 \img>
80% of stocks in my portfolio are acquired via IPO. http://www.nseindia.com/marketinfo/ipo/ipo_pastissues.jsp 20% are index funds, ETF, MFs tec http://money.rediff.com/mutual-funds/high-risk I make 40% profits per year.
Plenty of people make money trading forex (cash and futures). Sorry to hear you don't have the capacity to figure it out.
I'm a strictly technical trader now. I used to look at what the economic news was vs expectations, but now I just watch the price bars, because I found that paying attention to the news itself caused me to form an opinion and I'd often trade my opinion instead of trading the crowd's reaction to the news (the price action), and I'd miss beautiful moves because the news didn't warrant it. The chart you post could be any chart. I think once you learn to trade pure price action, you can trade anything. This chart contains common patterns and the price action that commonly follows: First you have a double top/failed breakout which is a low-risk short setup (and it's followed by a decent move down). Then you have a slightly higher low, a long signal, that would result in a scratch trade or a small loss. If you're a 3-push trader, though, you wouldn't have taken it because it was only the 2nd push down. Then you have a double bottom, which is a low-risk long setup because it follows the 3rd push down (and this setup is followed by a decent move up). Then you have a strong push at the end of that up move, but it sells off. The attempt to retest that spike fails, leaving a lower high, excellent short signal (and it's followed by a decent move down). Then another bottoming process with slightly higher lows, good long signal and sure enough, up it goes. Lower highs in a down trend, higher lows in an uptrend, double tops, double bottoms, and breakouts in the direction of the trend, are all strong "edges" that increase your odds of making a good profit, and also these setups give you tight and survivable stop zones.
A little off topic, but I've just started looking at currency futures from a technical standpoint, and wow they retest highs and lows to a pip a lot. You don't see that in stocks or indexes, there's always a range of a few ticks that you have to watch for. But currency comes back to the pip precisely.
You included lost time. Lost time is actually more important than money. You can always get money back, not so with time.
Have not tried except hedging cash inflows. So why do you assume i don't have the capacity to figure it out? Ponzi scheme is a scam too some people make money on it too, it dosn't make it is any less of a scam. Just ask Madoff investors.