Losing my edge

Discussion in 'Trading' started by Ernsuksathaporn, Apr 8, 2020.

  1. Although there are people that are capable of developing (and executing consistently) an edge , risk mgt and entry/exit strategies on short time frames such as 1min (and doing it on a manual basis— not with an auto trading algorithm) making money on short time frames on ES on a consistent week to week and month to month basis is not really do-able.

    I would suggest to you that you go the opposite direction and start looking at the ES on larger timeframes with the smallest timeframe being 60 minutes

    So:

    Hourly Chart
    4 hour Chart
    Daily Chart
    Weekly Chart

    develop an edge based on larger time frames and major support resistance areas

    you still have to create (and execute) a daily trade plan (entries, exits , risk mgt), be open to change based on real time MGI (market generated information) have an opinion but be open to change -dont be biased (right fighter) or married to any specific as market conditions can and will change on the fly (i.e have both a bearish and bullish plan each day on ES so you know where to enter and exit on either one and you also know where you are wrong on either one)

    Keep detailed journal and notes on what you did right and wrong each day

    strive to get better and learn from mistakes



     
    Last edited: Jul 19, 2020
    #41     Jul 19, 2020
    wiesman02 likes this.
  2. Beginners luck in trading is a killer. It instills false confidence

    it happens a lot in options trading - people really have no edge , no plan , no risk mgt , no journaling

    Just random Trades with random results

    Luck is not repeatable edge to base a trading income off of. You can’t depend on Luck to pay your bills each month



     
    Last edited: Jul 19, 2020
    #42     Jul 19, 2020
  3. Losses are part of the trading business. You have to know where you are wrong and be able to lose small and fast and not hang onto (or worse add onto as well) losing positions —hoping.......that they turn around.

    Every now and then they do turn around and unfortunately that is where many traders beginning to develop a bad habit and false sense of security that they can keep doing that over and over when they feel like it - instead of robotically cutting losses consistently, quickly and often as part of a risk mgt plan.

    There is always another trade , but there won’t be if you blow your account up hanging onto a losing trade. Many massive losses that blow up people’s accounts -especially in something like ES and NQ — started out as small or modest losses an mushroomed as time continued and the trader refused to get out looking for a turnaround —or worse— kept averaging down and adding to the Losing position hoping for a turn around that would at least get them out breakeven.

     
    Last edited: Jul 19, 2020
    #43     Jul 19, 2020
    trader1974 likes this.
  4. schizo

    schizo

    Being able to code just ain't the same as trading. A great trading system isn't written with codes but developed through years of experience. Just my worthless 2-cents.
     
    #44     Jul 19, 2020
    comagnum and bone like this.
  5. Does your strategy have a statistical edge?

    If not, other things don't matter, you'll still be losing in the long-run.

    If yes, it's just part of the process, you'll be profitable if you done enough trades.
     
    #45     Aug 3, 2020
    SimpleMeLike likes this.
  6. Buy1Sell2

    Buy1Sell2

    Folks, the only edge in successful trading is Prudent Risk Management and the utilization thereof.
     
    #46     Aug 3, 2020
    smallfil likes this.
  7. ironchef

    ironchef

    #47     Aug 3, 2020
  8. userque

    userque

    In that thread, others posted, then I said,

    As of this writing, no other comments followed.

    So, @ironchef , what's your current position on the matter? I won't shout or debate, just curious. :)
     
    #48     Aug 3, 2020
  9. the below is true but even with a statistical edge
    that is also assuming that:

    You practice consistent Risk Mgt across every trade

    All trade entries to open a trade are done in a consistent fashion

    All managing of live trades is done in a consistent fashion

    All trade exits to close a trade are done in a consistent fashion

    some people have an edge (I.e trading certain setups or trading VWAP or whatever the “edge” is) but having a statistical edge is not enough

    even option traders who use only the most statistically advantageous trade entries and option order types can totally screw up the trades due to any number of factors including risk mgt , poor entries and poor mgt of trade while in it and poor exits,






     
    #49     Aug 3, 2020
  10. trade the daily chart on the ES or NQ. Es going to all time highs. screw daytrading no edge for retailers
     
    #50     Aug 3, 2020