THIS. after the past weeks I am fully convinced most people are really just trading random noise. I used to guess this but now to me it's cyrstal clear. like for a few weeks I been pounding the table with price action concepts and it's like a bunch of blind and deaf people going 'huh'. yeah - all is trading noise.
Yes, I think I did experience that. I did lose 5 percent in the first two weeks and made it back with profits. That probably made me over confident.
Call it "noise," "whipsaw," "alphabet soup," "volatility," or whatever... a rose by any other name is still a rose... it's price movement. Good that we understand what this market is... that's half the battle. Now, develop a trading scheme that profits from it. I have an algo called "Whipsnake" which is designed to profit from a market like this.
During my market prep, I set-up multiple if-then scenarios of what the market might do. Most of the days, it always does at least one of those scenarios and gets to the target I set up. I think the issue for me is to find a way to not get stopped out before the move begins.
Market are random most of the time, probably 99% of the time. Its our job to find the 1% of the time when they are not.
Listen man, the drawdown are going to come. People are saying maybe you didn't have an "edge" in the first place. It doesn't matter, edge or not you will lose! And I don't mean you WONT win, I'm just saying the losses will come, and sometimes in flurries that will make you ungrounded, and reflect. Maybe this isn't working? This is natural for us. Dealing with it, imo, is to size down, and let the numbers play out. We really can only play ther large number laws, a few trades doesn't mean Jack shit. The best systems can lose 18 trades in a row. I think Soros said, "it's not how much you win or lose, it's how much you make when you win, and how much you lose when you lose." That quote forever is in my mind. Size accordingly. Analyze your system. Crunch some numbers. Get your brain thinking. If you made 25% you can definitely make another 25%. Keep going.
Pri Well technically you're correct. Price action moves in a geometric Brownian motion. Same shit as particles of dust on a mantle. It is noise. But that doesn't mean opportunity of signals are within that noise. Of course it is, alpha is present at all times. It's up to you to figure when the fvck to sell and buy, and at what bid and what offer. Cheers!
Lets not jump to no edge, before we know fully your method. Yes week off, or maybe a week of Demo. Markets likely changed how it moves and it's just having a bad period with your method, so demo, learn it's new ways then back in, you'll likely have to retreat to demo occasionally when this happens, tis all normal. But don't keep trading Live, down week, Demo till profitable, then back.