%% Good point on your last line. With a low hit rate ,JSS [win rate] like the early turtles, took large % gains with low hit rate.OK But with a better than average hit rate, cutting back is wise. Note there is more than one right answer on this.Usually when i miss , the trend has changed, so i cut back size or take a break depending. Another good thing about cutting back on size; ego does not like it , LOL.Good word........................................................................... One of LBJ's 10 commandments of trading is ''3 misses in a row + take a big break'' ,useful with HI hit rate %; not so useful if a system /plan has low % win rate[ hit rate]
I follow that rule as well,,, 3 loses in a row and I am done for the day... that happened on Wed and I posted a small 3 point loss ( I trade ES, that's $150 per CT).... Losing days are just a part of it. I used to have these huge losing days because I traded too much and my stops were too wide. That destroyed me. I have much better risk management now.
I thought you used 2 point stops. Now each losing trade is only 1 point? You keep saying that your stop is 2 points and target is 3 points. Today you even say you got saved from having a 2 point stop-out by not putting on a trade, so your stop would have been 2 points. https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/es-first-30-mins.310579/page-4#post-4475646 It seems like you're all about skipping the first 30 minutes, and next week you're gonna be telling us the amazing trades you took right off the open. Do you see why I say you're all over the place and why I don't believe anything you say????
Gotcha. Slow down. I had a 3 point winner as my first trade on Wednesday. Then lost precisely 6 points on the next 3 trades, three trades that I Had two point loss attached to them automatically. Net was -3 and done fir the day. And I did miss a two point loser today by following the no trade first 30 mins strategy. The trade would've been a short at the exact opening bell and I would've been stopped out very quickly. What am I saying it's not making sense
I see. The way I first read it was to assume you started the day with 3 losses in a row and hence was expecting -6. Good to see you're being consistent.
No problem. One thing I'm very consistent with is that two point loss. I never ever ever move it wider. I will move it to a negative one or a breakeven as I'm getting into a profit zone. That accounts for my breakeven's. Don't Talk much about breakeven trades, 20% of mine end up at zero. I will move my profit target if things are going well and volume is holding up. I pulled two 5 point trades this week. But those are now so rare. Sometimes I have to pull down the profit target if things are fading out. I got no problem taking one or two point Profit instead holding out fir three point target that just doesn't make it. That very thing happened today where I took a one and a half point profit on a trade that eventually I would've stopped out on had I stayed too long.
I get at least one entry signal on approx 100 days per year, that is around 40% of trading days. So 150 days where no entry signal is generated. That means sometimes i can go 5 or even 10 days in a row and not get a signal.
I like controlled losses where I know what my losses will be. If you have no idea what your losses will be then it is out of control losses. Uncontrolled losses can blow up your account.
Wrong, if shorted on the opening you would have been in the money close to 4 handles within 15 min and break even after 30min so cut the crap.
Wow you're seriously going to tell me what I would have or not have done! Pretty assumptive. I'm telling you trading my method I would've taken a two point loss on that opening down trade. Peace out buddy