Discussion in 'Forex' started by Ivanovich, May 29, 2008.

  1. New thread on the Canadian Dollar. The pair I hate to trade, yet trade it, I do. I've decided I'll post my positions on this pair for a bit. Feel free to comment or post your own, but keep it on the USD/CAD pair.

    I've opened a long a .9850 for a move back over par at 1.0020. Stop loss is .9715. Size, 250,000 units.
  2. What sort of time frame are you looking at Ivan, and are you scaling in or just the one position?

    I agree with your view on direction generally for the dollar but I can't really see anything technical, also isn't .9715 a bit of an odd place for a stop (previous low in Feb was .9709 plus the risk of a 'big figure' stop-hunt)?
  3. Time frame is open - this is just the one position. So it either hits my target or my stop. And thank you for pointing out the stop issue. That was a misprint and should read .9705. Just below the low. Big figure stop hunts tend to not occur so much in this pair, so I'm not concerned with it.

    As for the technical reasoning, I expected 9815 to hold, and it did (thus far). The bounce off of it is bullish. I also expect a correction to come from crude shortly, commodities are down, and the dollar/euro is showing promise of a resumption of a downtrend.
  4. DRiSsT


    I live trade and i watch the market as often as i can everyday. I would hate to lose so much I make sure i place orders on trades i know for sure are going to be profitable. Maybe one trade a week, or 1 every two weeks. I wait for the "right moment" having a winning ratio of 92% but never have i gone over 100,000 units. "Slowly but surely" i always say.
  5. To each their own, and I don't mean to offend when I say this, but it all depends on your account size.

    If you've got a $20,000 account and use 50:1 margin, 100,000 units is a big risk.

    If you're like me, around three big figs and at 20:1 margin, 250,000 isn't a big deal.
  6. It all sounds very reasonable to me, but then what do I know!

    You're off to a good start anyway, at this rate your target will be met by tea-time :)

    Seriously though, looks good.
  7. PaulRon


    hey Ivan

    Curious to get your opinion on longer term outlook for usd/cad. 3mo? 6mo? 1yr? 5yr?
  8. Ugh...I hope you don't hold me to this.

    I'd say we hang around par for another two months or so, then we break the current range to about 1.04 for a gradual rise towards - but never really hitting - 1.12 by the end of the year (or 1Q next year). At that point, a drift back down to par.

    I think the Fed begins to rise quicker than the BoC (who is still dovish and pissed that the CAD is so high). That's why you see the gradual rise. At the point where it peaks is where the BoC joins in tightening.
  9. Moved stop loss to .9850 to lock in break even.
  10. PaulRon


    Cool... nah wont hold you to it... Just curious because I'm Canadian and wondering when to go down to Buffalo to buy shit :)
    #10     May 29, 2008