Mar 06, 2007... Nothing new on the Canadian econ data front now looking toward Friday's jobs numbers and trade balance I personally have been buying in on the recent dip in the 60s and 70s stops place a little below my perceived support area in the 20s and 30s I have to watch metal prices (esp. gold and oil) because they are being bought back as we speak.
Mar 06 2007 cont... Looks like the combined econ data of Stats Canada and the US has caused the USDCAD to retrace to the first fibonacci level (measure from the beginning of up move at the end of Feb to the highest point of the up move) I am adding to my position here ... I see no reasons for dropping lower than the first or second Fibonacci retracement levels Still looking for a sustained upward movement above 1.1800 ... this might be hard since metal prices are up today.
i'd be interested in considering a long position if it came down near (and held) the 1.1700 to 1.1720 area. then i'd look for a retest of the 1.1840 area if i can get in.
I agree ... that price would be ideal ... a lot of perceived support just beneath that area ... I am just trying to front run to remove the possibility that the usdcad is so strong that it will not get down there (plus that is where I initiated some of my buys, so to buy again there would not be a good sign to my trade ... i.e. no real strong upward potential)
Mar 06 2007 cont ... looks like USDCAD finding temporary support here ... still not much action ... still looking for an upward move maybe later on this afternoon.
Mar 06 2007 cont2... Unreal jpy moves are making me re-think my usdcad position. Plus since the worry that the Canadian government would indicate future rate cuts is gone, and metal and commodity prices are rising as well. Most estimates are for Canada to be range bound between 1.1825 and 1.1635 I am keeping my longs which I have added to in the last dip to the first Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss points are at and around the figure 1.1700 No canadian news tomorrow and no major US news I can probably rely on how people trade the jpy to guage my usdcad trades (i.e. guage my usdcad trades by inferring USD strength through eurusd and usdjpy) we will see
March 07 2007 .... Looks like buying the dips was not a bad idea for the short term ... however the usdcad has yet to break 1.1800 which would be a bullish signal (to me anyway) I do not want to be holding this currency pair during US and Canadian NFPS (non farm payroll) numbers. (March 9 2007) So, I am going to maintain my position until then. Lets hope expectation is on my side. Same stops, and same upside potential.
Mar 08, 2007 ... USDCAD pierced 1.1800 for the first time since March 05, 2007 plus with no super significant pull back since then I am still bullish on the upside potential ... possibly looking for USDCAD to break 1.1900 which would put this currency pair back into its original upward channel, apparent at the end of 2006 and at the beginning of 2007... but I am not counting my chickens before they hatch
Mar 08 2007 ... Still holding because of relative strength I thought I also might point this out ... there is a nice upward channel forming in the hourly .. check it out I would not use this channel to initiate trades right now since there are market moving events on deck for tomorrow morning in the US and Canada. But if you already have a trade on I would use it to guage exit points and profit possibilities.