Loonie ... the infamous USD/CAD

Discussion in 'Forex' started by usdoutlaw, Feb 22, 2007.

  1. As i said guys i am a newbie and these graphs dont mean an awful lot to me, i just went long at 1.1256 hoping it will rise to 13 ish before a leg to the 1.09 areas.

    even if it does not i will intend to hold on as i see a bottom there :)
     
    #161     Apr 23, 2007
  2. No problem longing these days
    Target 1.18 :D
     
    #162     Apr 23, 2007
  3. No prob... (unfortunately Elite Trader is a free service so I am not going to go moderating yet unless it gets really annoying)

    Well if you read my posts I recently have been losing for the past week in USDCAD. Speculation it seems is still to the downside with no relief rally in sight (I am looking at the daily chart and in my opinion we are very over extended to the downside .... no substantial green bars!!) Plus I do not feel comfortable shorting at the lows so guess what i am buying =)

    Watch out fo the hourly charts .. .they suggest another move to the downside.

    My entries are simple ... consolidation is usually the sign for me to take a position ... So I will allow myself to scale-in / avg-in inside the consolidation band. I am always lightening up and adding (very arbitrarily) but i keep a core of usually 2 to 4 units (depends on how confident I am)

    Currently I have been buying in the teens and 20s and lightening up in the thirties and once @ 40.. I am holding two long as my core from 1221

    So basically my plan is to hit some singles and hold 2 for a home run right now.

    The spread I have is not very comfrotable (4 pips) and USDCAD wicks a lot so I am putting out limits 10 pips ... 15 pips ... 20 pips above my entry just for some income money.

    My stops have been lowered to 1175 because of these dips and wicks to the downside ... there is no real sell interest so I put my buy limits in the teens when the price is in the low 30s and when we get to high 30s and 40s I put some buy limits in the low to mid 20s.

    Basically its a waiting game and with the money I am making on the upside in this range i can afford a larger stop for my home run effort.

    I am not shorting at all since my trading idea is a relief rally ... I do not want to get caught in a losing short trade
     
    #163     Apr 23, 2007
  4. Watch out for the BoC rate decision ..

    my thoughts
    35% chance - BoC holds at 4.25% then we will see a relief rally, no real comments
    50% chance - BoC holds @ 4.25% with hawkish comments we will see a dip and then a mild relief rally
    15% chance - BoC holds @ 4.25% with dovish comments , we will see a 250 ish pip relief rally

    I am not liking the long USDCAD currently

    A daily red doji after a large red bar is terror for the upside, and most likely a sell continuation indicator.
     
    #164     Apr 23, 2007
  5. Thanks for the reply outlaw.

    Best regards,
    MK
     
    #165     Apr 24, 2007
  6. What an awful battle. I am getting frustrated.

    overnight added usdcad long @ 1218 & 1219
    exited by limits @ 1240 & 1240

    held existing core and waited for momentum (plus I increased my stops to 1187... ultimately leaving it overnight not monitoring during euro session. <----- mistake

    I was almost stopped out!! what is going on??!! it looked so good to skyrocket

    In any case I am keeping my stops @ 1187

    just added more usdcad long @ 1203 & 1202 same stops @ 1187 (not many people are fond of the upside these days)

    Read over Dennis Gartman's trade ideas in the recent Gartman Letter and he is looking to add to his long term short around 1275 so my new target is 1270 - 1300

    any trade ideas are welcome ... I am kinda stumped like I was when I was shorting the usdcad @ low 1600s a few weeks back (this currency pair is always a fight *sigh*)
     
    #166     Apr 24, 2007
  7. KS96

    KS96

    i think a temporary bottom is around here
     
    #167     Apr 24, 2007
  8. KS96

    KS96

    here we go...
    min. target 1.1250/55. Then, we'll see...
     
    #168     Apr 24, 2007
  9. As I have said eons ago on this forum (in a previous USD/CAD thread started long, long ago) do not trade this pair if you do not have the most patient demeanor. This pair behaves irrationally, and if you're the kind of person to check it every 5 minutes, you would be better suited with a GBP/USD trade.

    It is not unusual for me to hold positions in this pair for weeks.
     
    #169     Apr 24, 2007
  10. took off my long usdcad core from 1221 @ 1230

    still have my longs from 1203 & 1204

    the BoC rate decision was to hold steady .... just waiting for US number Econ numbers @ 10am form confirmation to continue adding and waiting for some type of statement or newswire alert on the USDCAD or Canadian rate decision.

    I nn the mean time I am going to stay long with my 1187 stops.

    I am going to trade usdjpy in the mean time

    Good Luck Good Trading
     
    #170     Apr 24, 2007