I was hoping that the ongoing Canadian railway workers strike would provide the relief rally usdcad needs to overcome the daily technical over extension to the downside ... however It does not seem to have an effect. I did not post this because I am not sure how long this strike would be, if it were significant, and how long it would be. Usually transportation strikes are historically prevented from escalating.
oops here is the latest story on the railway strike http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=email_en&refer=canada&sid=a0UEUKESygho guess I was right about need for government action
hey usdoutlaw... I live in Canada and the Canadian government is on this issue. They put in legislation yesterday to try and end this strike and send the workers back to work. They don't want Canada's exports to be hurt... see ya
I cannot believe that 1275 was the follow through ... plus I missed that exit point. Still looking for 1250 to cover my stop on my last half short from 1340 is at 1340 so no real worries trading the cable mostly right now ... its hot hot hot
Hi Guys, I recently bought into usd/cad at 1850 expecting it to rise and rise, it proceeded to fall 220 points, losing me 1350 gbp. i came out at 1620 ish in the hope that i will catch it as it bottoms in the next few weeks or month or so, have any of you guys got any ideas on roughly what that bottom out price is likely to be and when it will happen. GREAT SITE !!!
With commodity prices still high (oil prices might skyrocket during the summer) and the Canadian economy still "Macro-Econ" strong (rate increases in the future), I am thinking that USDCAD will see around 1.1000 (give or take 100 pips). This opinion is assuming that the US economic constant at current levels.
Ok I deviated from my plan. Overnite I saw the USDCAD strength and remembered how I missed a 300 pip short a while back because the USDCAD was a difficult short before, during and after the QUEBEC elections. (I covered for about 30 pip profit, thought that I was a lucky dog, and then Dennis Gartman makes the call and shorts the USDCAD which caused I believe a chain reaction short to 1300s) You can tell I am still pissed off about that since I was calling out that short for a long time. What does this mean? => I moved my stop to 1350 and added to my short at 1330 (covered this part at 1290 with a limit order, wooo +40 pips) anyway I am still holding my last half of the original short from 1340 and now looking for a target around low 1200s (my limit order is at 1200, but that is arbitrary, if it hits then thats a bonus) needless to say, this is what I am observing - any relief lately is met with tremendous resistance - the International Security Transactions in CAD - Feb number was very positive suggesting that the Canadian economy and the Canadian currency are in demand - a housing price implosion is seemingly more and more realistic in the US (i.e. my mother is still hoping for around $1MM for her house which is nearly 30 years old, while everyone else with a similar house has reduced the price to high $800k) => any movement to mid 1300s, I will short and cover in the high 1200s for now while keeping my core short position I understand that I have shorted near the temporary bottom and that a relief rally of around 150 pips is becoming more and more probable (so many contrarians), but with this daily red doji forming proceeded by strong sell interest and additionally any type of daily support breached with very weak support at 1175, we could easily see another 150 pips to the downside as well with in a week. But be cautious ... in the next two days there are Canadian inflationary numbers as well as numbers that firugre into the Canadian GDP, I might be forced to close my short positions early!
I just wanted to say, I like how you frame your trade ideas and also how you work a short-term technical idea into your long-term somewhat fundamental views. Very nice. I've strictly been a short-term futures trader but am interested in doing multi-day trades on forex. Reading this is helpful to learn from, thank you. Best regards, MK
whats up outlaw, I think you got this current situation on lock down. Just to make one point - I don't think the issue you mentioned here: - a housing price implosion is seemingly more and more realistic in the US (i.e. my mother is still hoping for around $1MM for her house which is nearly 30 years old, while everyone else with a similar house has reduced the price to high $800k) is really going to have much effect in the short to mid term. I think that's a long term issue. I'm just keeping my fingers crossed for that rally because unlike you I don't have the guts to short in the lows 13's. Nice trading It's going to be an interesting next couple of days. Currently we just say a nice rally off the 1270 levels and just got above 1300. But if it fails at that 1340 area again I think it may be time to lock and load....