Loonie ... the infamous USD/CAD

Discussion in 'Forex' started by usdoutlaw, Feb 22, 2007.

  1. cad/jpy seems like a sell at 102 to 102.05
    for today

    but seems to have a bottom at 100 for it's north trend to 106.3 by april 3rd

    Just seems a little too much...
    GL
     
    #101     Mar 26, 2007
  2. Any and all Canadians ...

    please tell me how serious this Quebec independence referendum is?

    I did not pay too much attention to this because I thought frankly it was silly

    but a lot of reports are coming out that say many people are worried over the Quebec independence referendum

    I cannot think of any other factor that is killing my usdcad short (looking for 200 - 300 pip price correction to the downside)
     
    #102     Mar 26, 2007
  3. USDCAD meeting a lot of support in the 1550s-60s ... still holding short strong

    - I expect worse US econ numbers
    - I expect better Canadian numbers

    However, I would really like the expectation to drive the USDCAD short rather than the news ... it would make me feel better
     
    #103     Mar 27, 2007
  4. Heading to 1.07 area
    this is a 15 month drop folks
     
    #104     Mar 28, 2007
  5. Put some in the money stops yesterday and got stopped out of 3/4 of my position

    the last 1/4 of my position has stops have stops at th 20 EMA on the daily = 1.1650

    my avg price short = 1.1630s

    still wondering what will break this consolidation and if this is still a commodity currency (recent commodity prices do not have an affect on this currency pair recently, maybe because China does not buy commodities from Canada like it does with Australia and New Zealand?) <--- please let me know if you know anything
     
    #105     Mar 29, 2007
  6. Covered the last of my usdcad shorts in the 1530s

    it took a long time but I think I got the trade I wanted

    The reason why I settled and am not testing the 1500s:
    1- approaching daily down channel support
    2- CAD GDP coming up in less than two hours
    2- US PCE indicator coming up in less than two hours

    The scenario of the US having inflation and the CAD experiencing inflation will probably make USDCAD an impossible trade
     
    #106     Mar 30, 2007
  7. KS96

    KS96

    This kind of predictions aren't better than pure gambles.

    It's you who claims from time to time that
    USD/CAD "has" to drop even further, right?
    What's your story?

    OK, I am short... but 1.07... that's a long way
    even on the weekly chart.
     
    #107     Mar 30, 2007
  8. The Gartman Letter makes the call ... short usdcad and eurcad

    The letter came out at 2AM and the EURCAD lost 120 pips

    Gartman loves the Canadian economy and thinks that now the PQ will not be a threat of Quebec independence, there will only be Canadian Economic strength

    all spec long eurcad ... watchout
     
    #108     Mar 30, 2007
  9. USDCAD bounced right off of daily channel support on the downside.

    I am looking for a re-test of that support before making a play in this currency pair

    reasons:

    - current macro conditions suggest that the usdcad pair should have enough momentum to breach this support

    - eurcad sentiment (eurcad seems extended on the upside), this may be a large influence on how usdcad pair trades

    - option driven moves curerntly seem to have a large effect on how the usdcad pair trades ... will buying subside once these options are fulfilled?


    my play will be to put buy orders above daily channel support (not below) with a reasonable 30 pip stop and a profit target of about 100 pip (totally arbitrary profit target at the moment until I see more evidence of upside resistance)
     
    #109     Apr 2, 2007
  10. New Short term trading idea

    use 20 EMA on USDCAD daily as entry point for short (currently 20 EMA @ 1.1620s)

    If trade active, look for retracement to near today's lows 1.1550s

    stops should be placed above 50 EMA on daily (around 1.1650s)
     
    #110     Apr 3, 2007