Looks like TMA's gonna pull through

Discussion in 'Stocks' started by demoship, Jul 23, 2008.

  1. They announced the tender offer today, it finishes up on Aug 20.

    Seeing how it's typically institutional investors that hold preferred shares, there should be very few shares that don't get tendered (definitely not a 1/3 of holders are going to forfeit their investment).

    Any institutional investor isn't going to try to hold out.

    There's a few scenarios possible here..

    - Arbitragers who picked up the stock @ < 5 will obviously tender for something worth 6 (a hefty return too)
    - The ones who bought at par.. they can either get roughly 30% of their investment back, or 0% back.

    If I was a buyer @ par, as pissed as I may be at the situation, I'd still opt to tender. The PPA makes it pretty clear that if you don't tender, you're almost certain to get nothing.

    Hell, considering some of the major banks out there (indymac, wamu), only losing 70% of your investment on a mess like thornburg means you made out pretty well.

    After this little deal goes through, there's a substantial chance the company will pull through. They're basically paying $200MM to wipe $1BB of cumulative preferred stock off their books.

    They're the first company to ACTUALLY realize a profit off their own distressed debt or debt-like instruments (most other companies played some mark-to-market shenanigans, but will never realize any of the 'profits')

    The 800MM profit from this is pretty much going to offset all their realized losses from the last few quarters. Keep in mind -- a big portion of their last quarter's losses were from counting the cost of the warrants they issued to the new investors, and unrealized losses. Yes, the warrants are dilutive as hell, but they didn't actually lose any money (looking from the perspective of the company as a whole). The unrealized losses may or may not recover. Paying the 12% on the 1.35BB in debt is going to hurt, but that's only a small part of the worries now.

    My 1 yr target for TMA: $.50, HOLD
  2. My one year target for TMA $0.00