I have not been into the day to day so I can’t really comment on Ohio but what would be dramatic would be if neither Warnock nor Walker broke 50.0% and we had to have another runoff through Georgia for control of the senate.
I just assume that it will be ugly after the election in Georgia and that they will find some circumstances to go with it. Stacey is going to lose again and that will not be graceful and while she will accept the results she will say lots of things that indicate that she does not and that is America's fault and America sucks. Any other election contest flaps going on there will be fueled by the negative atmospherics in general.
This isn’t at you but the fact that we live in a time where, in America, we opine on which candidates will and won’t accept the results of the voice of the people is fucking pathetic. We talk about how everyone gets a trophy at little league is turning our kids soft and totally ignore the disconnect with politics. Eight year olds need to suck up but 76 year olds it’s a different story.
While we are talking about Governor races: The vast majority of crime is connected to poverty. Republicans make the argument that it’s “city problem” or something like that but the truth is that republican policies do not lift up the poor and that’s why their states have such high crime rates.
The latest generic polling for Congress as a whole. In my opinion it's starting to look like the Democrats may still narrowly hold the Senate but will lose the House (as expected). Republicans hold new polling advantage for taking back Congress: NYT poll https://thehill.com/homenews/campai...-advantage-for-taking-back-congress-nyt-poll/
I wonder if the polling will be as bad in the Rustbelt as it was for the 2016/2020 elections. I have doubts that Vance is only up by less than a point in OH.
Republicans are trying to win by spreading three false talking points. Here’s the truth https://www.theguardian.com/us-news...publican-talking-points-midterms-robert-reich Republicans want midterm voters to believe lies about crime, inflation and taxes.This is what they’re claiming – followed by the facts Republicans are telling three lies they hope will swing the midterms. They involve crime, inflation, and taxes. Here’s what Republicans are claiming, followed by the facts. 1. They claim that crime is rising because Democrats have been “soft” on crime This is pure rubbish. Rising crime rates are due to the proliferation of guns, which Republicans refuse to control. Here are the facts: While violent crime rose 28% from 2019 to 2020, gun homicides rose 35%. States that have weakened gun laws have seen gun crime surge. Clearly, a major driver of the national increase in violence is the easy availability of guns. The violence can’t be explained by any of the Republican talking points about “soft-on-crime” Democrats. Lack of police funding? Baloney. Democratic-run major cities spend 38% more on policing per person than Republican-run cities, and 80% of the largest cities increased police funding from 2019 to 2022. Criminal justice reforms? Wrong. Data shows that wherever bail reforms have been implemented, re-arrest rates remain stable. Data from major cities shows no connection between the policies of progressive prosecutors and changes in crime rates. Research has repeatedly shown that crime is rising faster in Republican, Trump-supporting states. The thinktank Third Way found that in 2020, per capita murder rates were 40% higher in states won by Trump than in those won by Joe Biden. Let’s be clear: it’s been Republican policies that have made it easier for people to get and carry guns. Republicans are lying about the real cause of rising crime to protect their patrons – gun manufacturers. 2. They claim that inflation is due to Biden’s spending, and wage increases Baloney. The major cause of the current inflation is the global post-pandemic shortage of all sorts of things, coupled with Putin’s war in Ukraine and China’s lockdowns. The major domestic cause of the current inflation is big corporations that have been taking advantage of inflation by raising their prices higher than their increasing costs. Here are the facts: Inflation can’t be explained by any of the Republican talking points. Biden’s spending? Rubbish again. That can’t be causing our current inflation because inflation has broken out everywhere around the world, often at much higher rates than in the US. Besides, heavy spending by the US government began in 2020, before the Biden administration, in order to protect Americans and the economy from the ravages of Covid-19 – and it was necessary. American workers getting wage increases? Wages can’t be pushing inflation because wages have been increasing at a slower pace than prices – leaving most workers worse off. The biggest domesticculprits are big corporations using inflation as an excuse to raise prices above their own cost increases, resulting in near-record profits. US corporate profits are at the highest margins since 1950 – while consumers are paying through the nose. Let’s be clear: the biggest domestic cause of inflation is corporate power. Republicans are lying about this to protect their big corporate patrons. 3. They say Democrats voted to hire an army of IRS agents who will audit and harass the middle class Nonsense. The IRS won’t be going after the middle class. It will be going after ultra-wealthy tax cheats. Here are the facts: The Inflation Reduction Act, passed in July, provides funding to begin to get IRS staffing back to what it was before 2010, after which Republicans diminished staff by roughly 30%, despite increases since then in the number of Americans filing tax returns. The extra staff are needed to boost efforts against high-end tax evasion – which is more difficult to root out, because the ultra-wealthy hire squads of accountants and tax attorneys to hide their taxable incomes. The treasury department and the IRS have made it clear that audit rates for households earning $400,000 or under will remain the same. Let’s be clear: the IRS needs extra resources to go after rich tax cheats. Republicans are lying about what the IRS will do with the new funding to protect their ultra-wealthy patrons. None of these three lies is as brazen and damaging as Trump’s big lie. But they’re all being used by Republican candidates in these last weeks before the midterms. Know the truth and share it.
Joe Biden is bleeding the US strategic oil reserves that President Donald Trump filled to the brim. Now, it is close to empty. No more cheap oil to buy and replenish it but, Joe Biden wants to continue with the facade that cheap oil is because of his doing. He wants credit and there are enough Americans who will give him credit despite, the fact that he is merely, keeping oil prices somewhat down until the US strategic oil reserves is all gone. One other reason is to keep European NATO subservient to Joe Biden's demands on Ukraine. People are fed up with sky high inflation eating into their salaries with large demonstrations erupting in Europe and most of them opposed to continue financial support of Ukraine and the export of weapons to it.
Today's hint: Trump does not give a shit about the Senate majority, only his own ego. Trump attack leaves GOP wondering if he cares about Senate majority https://news.yahoo.com/trump-attack-leaves-gop-wondering-190648120.html Former President Trump’s Monday assault against Joe O’Dea, the GOP’s Senate nominee in Colorado, is angering Republicans while leaving them wondering if he cares about the party winning back the majority in the upper chamber. O’Dea, a pro-abortion rights moderate whom Democrats spent $4 million against in the primary, was already in an uphill fight against Sen. Michael Bennet (D-Colo.). Now Republicans worry any chance he has of pulling off an upset are being extinguished by Trump, prompting frustration and exasperation with the ex-president. “It certainly is not [helpful],” Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.), a Trump ally, told The Hill. “I would hate to see O’Dea lose to Sen. Bennet by a few votes just because Donald Trump urged Republicans not to vote and we came up short of the majority by one senator.” “If [Sen.] Mitch McConnell [R-Ky.] opposed every Republican nominee who criticized him publicly, we wouldn’t stand a chance,” Cramer continued, referring to the Senate minority leader. “The nation has to be more important than individual personal offenses.” In a post on his social media site, Trump labeled O’Dea a “RINO,” or “Republican in name only,” and said that “MAGA doesn’t Vote for stupid people with big mouths.” The barb came in response to O’Dea saying that he would not support the former president if he ran again in 2024 and that he would actively campaign against him. Adding to the trouble, the remarks came at the worst possible time for O’Dea as ballots started to be distributed in the state on Monday. One GOP strategist involved in Senate contests likened Trump’s attack on O’Dea to his rhetoric surrounding the Georgia runoffs following his election loss in 2020, which many Republicans believe helped suppress turnout among Republicans. “If O’Dea is literally the difference between a GOP majority and minority, you think about the profound policy ramifications that come along with that. To think you can be anywhere right of center and be willing to mortgage on a Republican majority just because someone says not nice things about you is pretty revealing,” a second GOP operative involved in Senate races said. “It’s all about this fealty to him, and you don’t have to be a mathematician to realize how that went in Colorado two years ago,” the strategist added, referring to President Biden’s 14-point win over Trump in the state. While O’Dea is considered one of the GOP’s best Senate recruits this cycle, he still faces a steep climb to defeat Bennet, a two-term incumbent, in what has become a blue state. No Republican has won a statewide general election in Colorado since 2014, when former Sen. Cory Gardner (R-Colo.) defeated former Sen. Mark Udall (D-Colo.), which also led to GOP wins in the offices of state attorney general and secretary of state. “To win a state like Colorado, you need everyone open to you to vote for you. Any sort of shooting inside the tent has potentially profound consequences,” the second GOP strategist said. “You need everyone.” In a statement on Monday in response to the ex-president, O’Dea said that he is “a construction guy, not a politician.” “President Trump is entitled to his opinion but I’m my own man and I’ll call it like I see it. Another Biden, Trump election will tear this country apart,” O’Dea said, adding that Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R), Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.), former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley “would be better choices.” “These elections should be focused on Joe Biden’s failures – supercharged inflation, a broken border, rampant crime, a war on American energy – not a rehash of 2020,” O’Dea added. “America needs to move forward.” According to a Marist University survey taken earlier this month, Bennet led O’Dea by 6 percentage points. The Senate Leadership Fund, a group run by top allies of McConnell, donated $1.2m to an O’Dea super PAC on Oct. 7, which went toward a two-week ad buy in Denver. The group has not ruled out making further investment in the race and is continuing to monitor it, according to an SLF spokesperson. Given the margin to overcome, some Republicans are skeptical that Trump’s comments will make much of a dent when all is said and done. They note that O’Dea has been vocal about his opposition to the former president for months and believe the state’s antipathy for Trump will render his comments relatively null and void. “O’Dea has been very clear that he is a Republican. He is a businessperson. He has been very clear about what he thinks about Trump,” said one GOP operative with Trump ties. “I don’t think it’s going to change things for O’Dea either. It’s a wash. It gets Trump some clicks and some headlines. It gets O’Dea the same. … It’s a self-fulfilling prophecy. O’Dea says he doesn’t like Trump. Trump bashes O’Dea. O’Dea can say ‘see?’” The operative also pointed to Trump’s continued push to install loyalists throughout the GOP ranks, including at the state party and county level, as a likely reason for the Monday statement. “Trump wants the party to reflect him,” the strategist added.