It's like GOP is doing everything possible to not re-claim the Senate... Wait, people are actually paying signing bonuses and raising wages to try and get good help? Oh, the horror... THE HORROR
And by "Conservatives", he means QAnon Trumpers who don't believe in Democracy and believe that America should be a Trumper dictatorship. Blake Masters Wants to Fire All Generals and Replace Them With Conservatives Masters explicitly called for a wholesale firing of the generals at least seven times between August 2021 and March 2022. https://www.vice.com/en/article/dy7xp7/blake-masters-military-generals-conservatives
You wonder where did the woke military leaders come from https://www.investors.com/politics/editorials/197-military-officers-purged-by-obama/ Obama's Military Coup Purges 197 Officers In Five Years What the president calls "my military" is being cleansed of any officer suspected of disloyalty to or disagreement with the administration on matters of policy or force structure, leaving the compliant and fearful. Yet what has happened to our officer corps since President Obama took office is viewed in many quarters as unprecedented, baffling and even harmful to our national security posture He's intentionally weakening and gutting our military, Pentagon and reducing us as a superpower, and anyone in the ranks who disagrees or speaks out is being purged."
‘Roevember’ is coming — and the GOP has only itself to blame https://thehill.com/opinion/campaig...-coming-and-the-gop-has-only-itself-to-blame/ Things were already going badly for the GOP, and they just got worse with Sen. Lindsey Graham’s (R-S.C.) proposal for a national 15- week abortion ban. His proposal is a marriage made in hell, a shotgun wedding of bad politics and horrible policy. Women in states like California, Illinois and New York who thought they had nothing to fear from draconian state bans on reproductive rights in places like Texas, Idaho and Alabama now have lots to worry about, thanks to the ranking member of the Senate Judiciary Committee. There aren’t any competitive Senate races this year in any of these big blue states. But there are several swing House races in these places and Graham’s call for a national abortion ban is ready-made ammunition for the Democrats running in the suburbs of Los Angeles, Chicago and New York City. Early this year, the GOP had a simple theme that was working. The strategy was to make 2022 election a referendum on the economy. This was the platform that Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) wanted to use to take back the Senate. The plan started to unravel on June 23 when the Supreme Court announced its ruling in Dobbs and overturned the constitutionally enshrined right to abortion established in Roe v. Wade in 1973. The high court ruling opened a Pandora’s box of horrors and GOP ideological excesses that eliminated reproductive rights for millions of women living in the South and the Mountain West. Now Graham wants to extend a ban nationwide. It’s been all downhill for the GOP ever since the sad and mournful day of the Dobbs decision. Graham just added fuel to the fire that incinerated the fading GOP dream of a big win in November. The first sign of trouble for Republicans was a referendum in the crimson red state of Kansas where voters voted overwhelmingly to reject an amendment to the state constitution that would have allowed the legislature to ban abortion. The most recent hit to GOP was a Democratic victory in a special congressional election in a competitive suburban district in New York. The winning Democratic candidate, Pat Ryan, made his campaign a referendum on the Dobbs decision, and it paid off big time. The new member of Congress might have won an even more decisive victory if Graham had proposed his national abortion ban before the special election A national poll conducted for the Wall Street Journal just before Labor Day indicated the nullification of Roe v. Wade had replaced the economy as the issue most likely to drive voters to the polls. The survey also showed that Democrats have a 20-point edge over the GOP on abortion policy. A new national Fox News poll also illustrates the power of the support for abortion access/ pro-choice vote and the surge in support for Democratic congressional candidates. Voters indicated that they opposed the high court’s decision to overturn Roe by almost a two-to-one margin. Democrats had a decisive advantage among the many respondents in the survey who indicated that they were deeply concerned about abortion. Graham just lobbed a hand grenade at GOP candidates who already had trouble evading attacks on their positions against reproductive rights. GOP congressional hopefuls have seemingly been doing everything they can to avoid any discussion of abortion and to highlight the economy. This week, he put abortion back on the front burner and made it even more difficult for fellow Republicans to dodge the issue they just do not want to talk about. Graham’s call for a national ban also undermines the GOP doctrine of states’ rights, which the party has used to buttress its position against economic and social change in the last few decades. His proposal is more than an idle threat. If Republicans win control of the Senate, Graham will become the chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee with greater authority over abortion rights via appointments for federal judges. “Roevember” is coming, and the GOP has only itself to blame.
Roevember is coming... Democrats Launch Massive Negative Ad Campaign Against GOP On Abortion Democrats are hammering Republicans in dozens of ads across the country on their opposition to abortion access. https://www.huffpost.com/entry/roe-abortion-2022-election_n_63235b4ee4b082746be7e326
It's like the Republican Senate candidates are doing everything they can to lose the general election. J.D. Vance Opposes U.S. Support for Ukraine. That Could Turn Ohio's Ukrainian Community Against Him in a Tight Race https://time.com/6215770/jd-vance-ukraine-ohio-senate-race/ Russia is no stranger to being at the center of American elections. The Kremlin infamously meddled in the 2016 presidential race to tip the scales in favor of Donald Trump over Hillary Clinton, and since then, a growing portion of the MAGA right has grown both sympathetic to and supportive of Moscow. But now, in Ohio, where roughly 45,000 Ukrainian-Americans call home, the escalating Russia-Ukraine war could prove to be a pivotal issue in one of the most hotly contested Senate races in the country. Republican J.D. Vance has called for cutting off U.S. support for Ukraine, whereas Rep. Tim Ryan, the Democrat, says that America has a fundamental imperative to defend Ukraine from an unprovoked invasion. It’s a distinction that Ohio political analysts say could have an impact in such an intensely close race. A new Marist poll released Wednesday showed Vance with a slim one-percentage-point lead over Ryan. And while Ohio’s Ukrainian-American population—one of the largest in the country—is just a small fraction of its overall voting population, they represent a voting bloc with the ability to alter the trajectory of the election if it’s close enough. “It is a really tight race, and that could make a difference,” Nancy Martorano Miller, a political science professor at the University of Dayton, tells TIME. “It just depends at the end of the day on how close that race is going to be, and what other voting groups end up coming out.” Both Vance and Ryan have devoted much of their time on the campaign trail talking about issues animating the midterms nationwide—the economy, inflation, public safety. But their polar opposite stances on Ukraine have also been an issue in the race, and could weigh more heavily on some voters in the coming weeks. Russian President Vladimir Putin announced this week that he was ordering a partial mobilization of Russia’s military reservists, after a string of setbacks in his war in Ukraine. He also threatened to use nuclear weapons if Kyiv continues its efforts to reclaim parts of southern and eastern Ukraine that Russia has annexed. Meanwhile, Congress is scrambling to pass a measure this month to keep the government funded and approve billions in additional Ukraine aid. President Volodmyr Zelensky of Ukraine has said that continued U.S. support is essential for the beleaguered country to defend itself from the Russian invasion. Vance, the venture capitalist turned politician, has said bluntly that the U.S. shouldn’t devote anymore tax-payer dollars to help the Ukrainians. “I think we’re at the point where we’ve given enough money in Ukraine,” Vance said this month. “I really do.” The remarks didn’t necessarily reflect a change in the Trump-endorsed Hillbilly Elegy author’s posture. “I gotta be honest with you, I don’t really care what happens to Ukraine one way or another,” he told the conservative firebrand Steve Bannon during a podcast interview in February. But with the war entering a new phase of escalation, members of Ohio’s Ukrainian community say it’s a reminder of what’s at stake in the contest that will help to determine the balance of power in Washington for the next two years. “It definitely is a variable in the way you’re going to vote,” says Marta Liscynesky-Kelleher, president of the United Ukrainian Organizations of Ohio, an umbrella association that represents the state’s Ukrainian-American groups. “It definitely can make a difference,” she adds, “because our Ukrainian Americans in Ohio are also diverse. They are Democrats, they are Republicans, they are independents.” The Ryan campaign has worked hard to emphasize the candidates’ opposing viewpoints on the war. Earlier this year, it ran ads in northeast Ohio, home to most of Ohio’s Ukrainian descendants, emphasizing Vance’s comments on the conflict. “Silicon Valley fraud J.D. Vance is only interested in helping himself, so it’s not surprising that he continues to shrug off the brutal and unprovoked assault on Ukraine and the impact it has on Ohio’s large Ukrainian-American community,” Jordan Fuja, a spokesperson for the Ryan campaign, tells TIME. Along with Vance’s opposition to the U.S. continuing to support Ukraine against Russia, Fuja also cites Vance’s investments in Rumble, a social media platform that has spread Russian disinformation. “Tim has consistently shown up for Ohio’s Ukrainian community and is doing everything he can to help the Ukrainian community fight for their freedom,” Fuja adds. The Vance campaign declined to comment. But a source close to the campaign, who would not go on the record, rejected the notion that Vance’s posture on the Russian invasion of Ukraine would hurt his chances politically, noting that Vance won Parma, home to the state’s largest Ukrainian population, in the Republican primary. (The primary was in May, after Vance told Bannon he was apathetic about Ukraine’s fate.) The Russia-Ukraine war has been ongoing since 2014, when Russia annexed Crimea. But the conflict entered a new and more intense phase this year, when Putin ordered a full-scale invasion of the neighboring country. Despite being outmanned and outgunned, Kyiv has been able to thwart a Russian takeover, largely because of U.S. military aid. The United States has committed more than $13.5 billion in security assistance since President Joe Biden was sworn into office, with Congress approving $40 million in additional aid in May. Ohio politicians have long shown support for Ukraine and the state’s Ukrainian community. Vance and Ryan are vying to replace Republican Sen. Rob Portman, who is a co-chair of the Senate Ukraine Caucus. And Republican Gov. Mike DeWine has highlighted the state’s efforts to to welcome an influx of Ukrainian refugees. Ohio’s Ukrainian community leaders have not been shy about expressing their dissatisfaction with Vance’s position on the war. “What Russia is doing is a genocide against the Ukrainian people,” Natalia Lebedin, president of the Ukrainian Cultural Association of Ohio, tells TIME. All Western nations should be doing what they can to support Ukraine, she says, because the country’s fight against Russia embodies “the very ideals that the West and America stand for—democracy, freedom of speech, civil liberties, and basic human rights.” When asked whether she thought Vance’s comments would motivate more Ukrainians to vote for Ryan, Lebedin said, “I sure hope so.”
For what it’s worth: Polling Errors Threaten Public Confidence in Elections Issue: Trustworthy Elections By Todd Carney September 19, 2022 The polling industry has faced criticism for underestimating Republicans through several cycles. Pollster Nate Cohn recently wrote that the 2022 polls could do it again. These continued misjudgments can undermine public faith in how the media covers elections. Worse still, they can affect the result of close races. Many 2020 Senate polls underestimated Republicans. In Maine, all polls taken during 2020 showed Republican Sen. Susan Collins losing. The last poll before the election had Collins down by six points; she won by 8.6 points. Similarly, the last poll for Montana’s Senate race showed Republican Sen. Steve Daines losing by one point. Daines won by 10 points. South Carolina faced a similar problem, and Iowa, though not as dramatically, also dealt with inaccurate polling. Finally, polls in North Carolina showed Republican Thom Tillis losing. Tillis won. Bad polls can affect a race in various ways. One of the most important concerns campaign spending. In 2020, GOP donors spent millions in races propping up incumbents who they thought were in trouble. Conversely, donors may have abandoned candidates who they believed were too far behind. Many wrote off Collins. In Arizona, polls during the final week showedRepublican incumbent Sen. Martha McSally down by as much as 10 points, but she lost by only about two. A Fox News poll from two months before the election had McSally down by 17 points. When that poll was released, much of the media counted McSally out. While it’s possible that the polls tightened, it seems more likely that she was never really down by 17 points. In Michigan, polls showed businessman and Republican Senate candidate John James down by an average of five points. James ultimately lost by less than two points. The results were so close that it took a few days to call the election. Moreover, polls earlier in the 2020 cycle affected media coverage. In Alaska, liberals crowdfunded for Public Policy Polling to conduct a poll of the state’s Senate race. The poll showed the Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan at 39 percent, up only five points over Democrat Al Gross. This led to the viral campaign “don’t sleep on Gross” and millions being spent on the race. Yet Gross lost by more than 12 points and underperformed President Biden in Alaska, which calls into question that early poll. Voter enthusiasm will differ in a race that is within a point or two versus one that has a five-point spread. New Mexico and Minnesota’s Senate races ended up closer than those in South Carolina, Montana, and Maine, but polling outlets were far less active in New Mexico and Minnesota than in those other states. Had these two states received more polling, their races might have attracted more money and voter enthusiasm. And polling errors are not limited to Senate races. Polls in the last week of 2020 showed Donald Trump losing Wisconsin by as much as 11 points; Trump lost by less than a point. In 2021’s New Jersey gubernatorial election, none of the nonpartisan polls gave the Republican candidate, Jack Ciattarelli, a chance at winning, yet the race was decided by just three points. As Cohn noted, the past might repeat itself. Yet several of the same outlets are making projections for November based on polls with less-than-stellar recent track records. These kinds of mistakes could affect the results this November and further diminish public trust in the organizations that conduct and publish these polls. Todd Carney is a lawyer and frequent contributor to RealClearPolitics. He earned his juris doctorate from Harvard Law School. Related Topics: 2020 election, Steve Daines, polling, martha mcsally, Arizona, Maine, Donald Trump, Alaska https://www.realclearpublicaffairs....en_public_confidence_in_elections_854351.html
Things are going so poorly for Bo Hines in North Carolina that he needs to film his campaign ads in Indiana. Campaign 'trick?' Political ad touting 'North Carolina values' filmed out of state A new ad for a North Carolina congressional candidate shows him walking across corn fields with his grandfather, who says they farmed together and need to protect North Carolina values. The farm is in Indiana. https://www.wral.com/campaign-trick...carolina-values-filmed-out-of-state/20495675/