No, I certainly can't predict downturns. I can tell you that when you read things like "so what if earnings went to zero for a couple of quarters" that we are in a euphoric period....no concern for how 2 quarters of zero earnings would affect buybacks, debt servicing, layoffs, CAPEX, the housing market and all sorts of other downstream affects that would just snowball down on one another. I read this stuff all over the place though. "Mortgage your house and buy as much QQQ as you can", "so what if the Chinese economy grinds much slower do to coronavirus", and on and on. Doesn't predict anything about the immediate future, just shows how investors are giddy.
Market tends to be forward looking. It votes in favor of the US after the trade war and now this coronavirus both of which slow the Chinese economy and weaken its competitiveness. I am just thankful I guessed correctly that this bull market is continuing. @dozu888
We aren't in a euphoric period at all. You aren't getting a good read on this. Market sentiment was overly negative for most of 2019, the exact opposite of euphoria. There are millions of people under invested in stock markets. We need a serious leg up on top of where we are to even begin to call it euphoric.
not money pump...….government is not bothered about 'normal fluctuations. but CONTEXT yes that will trump any virus and everything else edit context is what decides what is high and low