Looks Like Everybody's Moving To One Side Of The Boat

Discussion in 'Stocks' started by libertad, Oct 24, 2008.

  1. Dollar cost average buying the fear....

    Mindset ....next 24 months......

    Blue chips across the globe......

    Are On Sale........
     
  2. I'm getting the impression that not until everyone who bought the fear have had to sell then this will be over.
     
  3. dont fall for the trap....:D

    the ole' double fear top
     
  4. Yeah....I guess when Buffett capitulates....this would define "true fear" ?

    Today is just a day to dollar cost average ....many prices better than in 10 years.....

    Mindset...model to 24 months...however there will be huge upward volatilty when there is huge downward volatility.....to take some off the board....

    Tough....but the way it is.....
     
  5. Today is just a day to dollar cost average ....many prices better than in 10 years.....

    --------------

    I have a hard time buying that theory. Yesterday's $10 company is today's $5 company and now this is a buy? What if our new $5 company is not a viable operation in the next few years?

    There is no way to ascertain the future of a company based on it's low and lower price. The product, management may remain the same but this is unknown credit exposure for the co and customers.
     
  6. Yeah...I know

    But ....when one has been in markets for a long time...

    One begins to know what fear is....

    No doubt an art....and not easy to do....

    ie POT in am...etc...etc....

    .............................................

    The way to LR avg is to do the indices...or baskets of BCs.....
    ..............................................

    The market mechanisms are what they are...and they are going to be the same when you wake up tomorrow...the players change all the time....along with what they say....
     
  7. What's your buy area on POT? Are you going to go long eventually?


    POT really is a spectacular raid. Check out the monthly - spike to the sky, then almost a 100% retracement - i've never seen anything like it.
     
  8. Still too much money out there and too much liquidity. My guess (and its a guess, so take that for what it is worth) is it plays out with an A-B-C type correction and then great doldrums thereafter preventing anyone from earning much of a return. There has not been enough pain inflicted yet.
     
  9. I see what you are saying....

    Gross was mentioning...along with Munger, etc...that the market is setting up for the next bull market....

    However this time around without the excessive leverage....

    What this means is just a lower set of numbers....given the typical ways of measuring tools in valuations....

    Which means that numbers have to start from a very low point...in order to realize the bull numbers....

    However.....one may realize the mix of low to high inflation effects once recovery takes hold....Price increases perhaps due mostly to inflation versus actuals...is perhaps their reference...stocks reflecting this....

    After all what is a substantial "real business" ? It is a business that offers products constantly in demand, which also reflects the state of the economy ...including the printing press, or lack thereof....

    ie Gillette selling the same number of razor blades....but prices rise because of the catch up game with one stop inflation....Fed prints now, reflected later on in prices of a supposed business that has staying power......

    Called "The Buffett Way".....
    Buy good businesses when there is a lot of fear and the economy is relatively weak......knowing that at the minimum the Fed will make it happen by default...as long as the products sell.....whereby the change in valuations outpaces most other options....
     
  10. dozu888

    dozu888

    for someone who has timefram longer than 10 years, all this volatility is really a blessing.

    yes, my stock portfolio is down 40%, like everybody else's, but my asset allocation rule automatically force me to invest new money into stocks since now they are only 25% of my total portfolio, instead of 40% last year.

    and the more the market drops, the easier it is to recover, as long as you keep doing dollar cost averaging.

    $100 invested at dow 14000, say it is now worth only $50 when dow is at 7000, now you only need to invest $50, to break even when it recovers half the drop to 10500....... and if you invest $100 at 7000, you'd be much ahead when it recovers half.

    yesterday when SPY was at 87, people are paying me $4.5 to sell to me at $80 in November... if it indeed drops below $80, my cost would be $75.5 in November..... this is too juice not to take.

    technically though, the price action is still bearish. the reaction from the October drop is too weak, and the consolidation over the past week looks like it's getting ready for another round of blood bath....

    the key is, stay flexible, don't commit too much, don't use too much leverage.

    who knows, SPY may indeed go to 50.. we just need to have some bullets remaining to fire at that level.
     
    #10     Oct 25, 2008