Trade-ya I do understand your position, looking for the near "sure-thing" based on quantifiable and statistically proven research and development. I don't question the viability of some of these strategies for making spectacular investment choices, and I do wish you luck on your venture. I just prefer to make my money the easy way, I trade people, not hard to find (and increasingly so...) mechanical inefficienies in the market. You've got alot of competitors moving into this space in private equity management, it's almost a pop subculture movement. This will invariably cause your R&D/academics to work overtime to keep coming up with fresh strategies that work. It sounds to me like you've got a good crew, and finding a good crew that mates with your strategic goals is just good business. If you can keep the talent in good form, I think you'll do well. If I am deemed a gunslinger, so be it! I prefer the term pirate, but perhaps gunslinger has a bit of an clint eastwood feel, and clint is my kind of guy. Maybe my style is not viable for a fund of your aspirations, maybe it is. At the moment I will continue to play a lone hand, we'll see if private management is a hassle I'm willing to tolerate as time progresses. Thanks and goodluck,
Instinct that comes from extensive experience. You say you have been trading for 13 years. Are you telling me that you don't know any daytraders making decent money?
Thank you for your well thought out reply. I appreciate your comments and I wish you the best of luck in your endeavors. Different strokes for different folks. FYI, in case anyone thinks I'm crazy, I've gotten over 10 emails with people looking to do this deal with me. If I hire 2 i'm satisfied. Best of luck in what you are doing. Neal.
I know a lot of traders that are extremely profitable. They all have an edge. I do not know 1 person that has been profitable over the years (may have had 1-2 profitable years and then blown-up) that trades from the tape without any more significant edge. Sorry, good instincts don't cut it when you are buying the figure and I've got 1 million shares offered at .05, understand? Information my friend.
...is that there's quite frequently NOT enough monthly fees to suffice a capital management concern. This lesson should be drilled in to the heads of any and all traders who deem themselves worthy of a fund. What we have here is a fund manager who claims to be successful.... however he's still looking and searching for additional income streamsâ¦namely from day-traders. He appears to be a product of the recent fund conferences however it's obvious that he has the wrong business model in mind. The poor chap is sucking dick for beer money. This should be a lesson to all prospective fund managers. It ain't as easy as it first appears. Regards, Dr. Zhivodka
I know looking over shoulders was humor. Could you post a borderline spread sheet? I just want to glance at the types of columns and the probable length that it would be. It would give me a look at how much progress you have made on your ideas. I might even use it to make some comparisions. I have found upper limits for what I do. As to commissions, fees etc, I am used to paying flat (quarterly in advance) for up to a base amount. After that I am in postage stamp land. Other past arrangements that I have used, are to set my own fees and not pay fees on losing trades. Implicit in this was the idea of bones for good executions. Is your staff fairly competent at following directions? I have on occassion left a few bucks on the table because, partial fill successions did not pace the the overall cummulative market volume. I do not like being in an environment where people are not keeping right on the edge during the day. Try to be explicit in your responses. I have read every post here in this thread.
trade-ya, I must say that I share some of your skepticism regarding whether an edge can be derived from daytrading. I attribute that opinion primarily to the fact that I've never daytraded before, having for the past several years focused exclusively on some non-directional volatility-based options strategies where I believe there is a demonstrable "edge". On the other hand, there are many daytraders on this site who claim to have found an edge that has allowed them to trade profitably for years, and I have no reason to doubt the veracity of their claims. But I was wondering whether you might answer a question that could help inform this discussion. Specifically, what exactly is your edge besides hucksterism?
We all know trading is a tough business, hence the higher risk premium. Have you ever read Market Wizards series of books? There are many examples of traders with explemary records spanning decades. Like Soros, Druckenmiller, Eckhardt, Ed Seykota, Richard Dennis(though he did blow up of sorts), Paul Tudor Jones, and Bruce Kovner(who now is the largest CTA in the world). And most of these people aren't all quants. They have trading rules to follow by but not necessarily a blackbox. And even the best trading systems fail over time. It's just part of the game. You can't win all the time. You gotta continuously work harder and think better than the next guy to earn money in the market. Whether it's discretionary or quantitative.
The problem with quoting the records of some of these guys is that the commodity markets were wholly different in the mid '70's from what they have been up until 2001-02. Massive fortunes were made during the "WIN" years and before that during the Nixon price control years by simple trend following methods. It has been a twenty-year drought. However, those years appear to be back.
since you are trying to tell us that we cant make money without your edge maybe you could give us a ballpark range on your performance. the last research i read said that hedge funds are averaging about 9% gain this year and lagging the market badly. are you beating a passive investment in the qqq this year for example? you are judging our abilities how about letting us judge yours.