Hello, Is it a natural dangerous bias that profitable traders develop over the years? When you are getting accustomed to trading full time, you might be tempted to ask for more action and subsequently lose your edge... Back in 2008, I was trading around 50-100 lots per day, on around 10-15 trades. Now I trade 250-500 on 50-80. I am doing the same kind of money... My results are also less stable now( when you want small scalps all day, you usually get run over by a train at least once a month...). But it was 2008 and a monkey would have been able to replace me in what I was doing at the time, the markets were just too easy to scalp. Now it is much harder. The tapes have consolidated. I think I am a much better trader now.So it's hard to get a clear picture of the causes of my results. By the way, I can't see myself waiting all day for 10 trades anymore, I 'd rather be doing something else. I don't like that thought, because it's not objective, the market doesn't care if I am bored... Just asking if some profitable traders had this problem. Thanks
Nice to see you. I remember our conversations around the time of the MF Global meltdown. You may or may not be overtrading but I do not think you can use 2008 as a metric of any sort. Make your judgments on what your reason is telling you now with no reference to the '08 abberation.
Hello Swan Noir, I haven't really quitted ET... ...We must be posting on different forums. Indeed I am quite sure I would make a killing with my current strategies if you give me a 2008 environment back, but I won't ask for a new economic crisis again... It's just that I feel burnt lately. Better than last year, but far from " no down week" smooth sailing...
The first thing I notice about your post is that you recognized the market environment changed between 2008 and present, at least in regards to your strategies. If factually and accurately deduced, that's a good thing which tends to promote longevity. But your post indicates otherwise. You are doing 2 to 5 times more trades and volume for less stability and no benefit in profitability. You have WILLINGLY given up your edge. Just as concerning is your comment about a train wreck AT LEAST once a month?!?! Where is the discipline and risk management in the existing more trades, more volume strategy?? You have WILLINGLY given up your edge. You've made the bed. Why do you have a problem with that? Trading IS boring! Trade On!
OP reminds me of the difference between day trading & swing trading (stocks). One is exciting, in 'n out sniping of little targets, make your goal and then done for the day. The other is like rigging and firing a cruise missile, then monitoring its progress for a comparative eternity. The cruise missile is far more effective for long range, high value target$, but nowhere near as fun. It can also crash into terrain, be shot down by unnoticed changes in the enemy's defense system, or just malfunction. And so it goes in our changing trading environment..... The big money is (still) in the main movements. It's a bull market.
If I was still trading like in 2008, I am not sure I would even be profitable. The opportunities don't exist anymore. Much more autospreaders/algos taking these trades. I had to evolve. For example, you can't scalp for 20 ticks in 5 minutes on a 5 tick wide spread when a 20 tick move lasts 5 hours and the spread is 2 ticks... By the way, I haven't really given up any edge, willingly or not, I had 2 or 3 down weeks since the beginning of this year, all months positive of course, it's not that bad, just much more tiring than when trading was easy.
Agreed, markets have changed since 2008. There are now 900 HFTs that are trading 9 billion shares/ month. Per trade profitability have declined, as a matter of fact it has dropped 75% for the HFTs. Nowadays we have to trade smaller lots, hold longer and incorporate swing and position trading into our trading plan. However markets work in cycles, thus do not be surprised if in the future it reverts back to many trades a day.
While I agree with dealmaker that the markets run in cycles (hard to disagree) it must be noted that times like 2008 and early 2009 are not around very often.