Looking outside the square

Discussion in 'Chit Chat' started by Cherrypicker, Apr 24, 2009.

  1. It recently occurred to me, that most people posting on this site have something very real in common other than trading, that I honestly believe will be their single largest mistake/oversite when they come to the end of their trading life and look back to see where they went wrong. I also expect a lot of people will try to tear me a new asshole for what I'm about to say.

    "Look outside of the US. It's not the centre of the universe."

    It might appear to be the 'King of the Economic Castle', but the more I study this crisis that we're in, the more evident it is to me that the credibility and ability of the US has been obliterated (I'm excluding military might here ok). It's very easy for me to say this as I'm not a US citizen.

    Richard Branson (Virgin Airlines) recently said something along the lines of 'recessions make millionaires'. I can't remember if those were his exact words but it was something like that anyway. And he's bloody right.

    Now here's my thoughts. Every day on the news here in Australia we're hearing about more bailouts, more fraud, more TARP money, more banks going under, GM going under, more sub-prime mess, more unemployment......IN THE US!!

    For FUCK SAKE, I don't even live there and it's all I'm hearing about. It's all everyone is hearing about. What never seems to make the news is the massive amount of good news that's happening in a lot of the rest of the world.

    That's right, there is a "REST OF THE WORLD", and it's a lot bigger than the US, and apparently more equipped to get out of this shit fight than the US.

    Here's one observation from my own piss-ant back yard called Australia. Hell, our economy is 1/8th of a bees dick compared to that of the US's but you'd best shut up and listen because we have cattle stations here that are bigger than TEXAS, and that's no joke.

    There have been NO BAILOUTS of any banks here. The banks are still making billions, and paying big dividends. Many of the big miners here are still making zillions. Shit, there's even more talk of BHP having another shot at taking over RIO. The housing market is still moving, and in the city where I live there have been a couple of records broken recently for commercial/industrial property prices at auctions. Shit, I had my own house valued 2 weeks ago (which I bought at apparently the top of the market two years ago) and it came back slightly 'over' what I paid.

    My point is, gong back to the Richard Branson comment, this is the buying opportunity of a life time in markets "OUTSIDE OF THE US". Another entrepreneur here in Australia, Jerry Harvey of Harvey Norman, was recently interviewed on Sixty Minutes with regards to the world slump. Again, I can't quote word for word but he basically said, there are a shit tin of Chinese (and other Asian) consumers out there that have had there standard of living raised in the last few years, and they ain't going to drop that standard. They are going to keep wanting, and buying, and that standard of living is still growing and spreading. It won't be long and they won't need the US consumer to buy their lead paint covered toys and tainted pet food. They'll be buying their own shit.

    It's been said before, but I'll say it again. China (and other countries) are going to keep on growing and prospering while the US is wallowing around neck deep in shit.

    I'm going to be flat out honest here. I'm pretty stoked about the long term buying opportunities thanks to the US mess dragging down the stock prices of 'unbelievably profitable companies' around the rest of the world. For the first time in my life I'm becoming an investor. I mean why shouldn't I. I can buy the bare bones of a blue chip company, that's paying 10% dividend yield (because it's still making billions), PE ratio of 8, forecast growth for 2010-2011 around 15% and the weekly price chart has actually started trending up in steps. Crikey, I might even write some options against those stocks to make a bit extra.

    Even directors are buying the shares of their own companies (who would have thought hey).

    Whatever happens in the US, sooner or later, the rest of the world will get over it, and a new batch of zillionaires will be made.

    Here's hoping.....

    Feel free to tear me a new asshole for describing what I see is happening. I'm going to bed now anyway. I need to get up early to watch the brekky show to see which US company is crying broke tomorrow. Sad but true.
  2. Every day on the news here in Australia we're hearing about more bailouts, more fraud, more TARP money, more banks going under, GM going under, more sub-prime mess, more unemployment......IN THE US!!

    This is the wild card - US news around the world, hence when something goes wrong in any country, their leaders, reporters can point the finger of blame at the US. Frankly, it's no biggie but these are the seeds of hatred toward the US.

    Secondly, the US has never been afraid to "air our dirty laundry" for all the world to see.
  3. Banjo


  4. TGregg