Yes. As discussed. She will be in first place above Joe in the other- more mainstream- polls by the middle of October or give or take a couple weeks. This is true regardless of whether the online betting market is a leading indicator or not. I take interest in that but do not base my thinking upon it. JOE BIDEN IS NOT GOING TO BE THE NOMINEE.
Lets hope she is. Then it will be Hillary part 2 all over again, and when Trump wins again (under the same reasoning as before) the left will be wondering why a failed strategy that lost last time lost this time, too.
Indeed. The dems are in exactly the same position they were last time.......ie. Trump could be beaten by a good candidate.......except where's the friggin good candidate? Dems might want to think about that. Not sayin that Joe is not a nitro action figure- but definitely not sayin he is either. As I have said before, having Pocahonky show up and speak somewhere - including the debates- is like having your third grade teacher suddenly re-appear over and over and over again to chew your arse out for returning those school library books late. Not a winning formula.
Joe is the only Dem beating Trump in Ohio (based on current polls). Why throw that away to roll the dice on Warren? Unless Joe Biden commits an unholy gaffe that forever pisses off Dems, I think he will be the nominee. If I am wrong, I promise to be back here to congratulate you and admit that I was wrong.
Biden thinks the Parkland kids visited him in the White House. Who knows what other delusions he is under. The Chinese invested $1.5 bill in his coke-addled son. And then there is the creepy part. Even Google has page after page of pics under "Creepy Joe." He is pretty much the only democrat you can find negative stuff on now, since they have weaponized their algorithms. Creepy Joe:
I’ve been looking at the Warren and Sanders cross tabs and I have to say Warren has a better chance of taking on Bernie voters than Bernie does of taking on Warren voters. But I just don’t see how it will be enough. Warren’s support is mostly from educated and okder voters, Sanders is from less educated and younger voters. Sanders people are easier because their positions are changeable, theoretically due to age and education. Where the left wing is deplete is among African Americans. The more I’m looking at these cross tabs the harder it looks for Warren to get that breakthrough. Warren and Bernie combined are at 19% in South Carolina, Harris and Biden are at 47%. That’s a major gap to overcome. Honestly, I don’t think Warren will get this nomination with her support among black voters so low. I don’t recall who keeps saying someone not in the race will win the dem nomination but I’m inclined to agree to that at this time if Biden does collapse.
It's a mess. I dont know where we are this week but a week ago Quinnpineac showed numbers that said - not just in NC but nationwide- that Biden and Harris had a combined number of 48. Fine so far......except Biden had 47 of the points and Harris had 1. NOT FRIGGING PRETTY IF SHE IS PLANNING ON GETTING THE BLACK VOTE. We will get a better view by the middle of October or so when people have thoroughly gotten this ridiculous idea that Biden is going to get the nomination out of their heads. And then we will see where his fall-outs go. Note that I am not saying that Warren fill benefit from the fall-outs who are black, but probably from those who support biden because he is allegedly more mainstream, moderate, whatever. The situation among black voters is dicey. On one hand, they hold a lot of power. On the other hand, they dont know where to go with it once it becomes clear that Biden cannot get the nomination. So then what? To Harris, who so far they seem to outright dislike? Or what? They have hooked all their hopes for blacks on to an old white guy who stammers every day to explain his racist past. Or they can go with Kamala the Cop who locks up blacks. So I am not oblivious to the power of the black vote. I am just saying the lefties gotta provide a channel for that which does not cause them to no-show or puke at the polls. Biden will lose his leadership position by mid-fall if not sooner, but he will hang around and suck up a lot of votes because, like, what else does he have to do. Ditto for Bernie. But the loss of his leadership position will nevertheless cause some serious looking elsewhere. Warren is an obnoxious fraud but in some areas she is pretty smart for an indian. She knows that she is a white, honky, elitist, fraud and needs to take steps to compensate. Although I dont think she has done it yet, she will declare that her vp will absolutely be either hispanic or black. Well, duh. But then she will go well beyond and declared that 50% of all appointed positions in government will be either women, blacks, or hispanics or some such gimmick. Sure it is gimmicky and a cheap shot at pandering for votes but what choice does she have? AND AS I SAID ABOVE, SHOW ME THE PATHWAY BEING LAID OUT FOR THE BLACK VOTE AS AN ALTERNATIVE. I will adjust my view when I see it. I am immovable on my view about Biden. The other stuff, I can adjust my view if I am persuaded by something along the way. I am flat out saying that Biden is not going to be the nominee. I am also saying that I THINK that Warren will be the nominee but who knows. To fine tune my view a bit, I will say that I think that we will probably go to a brokered convention where Warren is the nominee but her vp "selection" will more or less be delivered to her as the price to pay for support. In other words, I agree that there are bodies to come in to the ticket who are not yet known or on the stage, but most likely at the VP level. Knock Biden down a couple more pegs to get people thinking about Plans B, C, and D a bit more and we will see where the dem rats all scramble to.