Looking back at data reported by S&P since 1926, in years the index closes within 5% of even, the average annual return of the following year is 26.34%: S&P Returns Following Flat Years 1934 -1.44% 47.67% 1939 -0.41% -9.78% 1953 -0.99% 52.62% 1960 0.47% 26.89% 1970 4.01% 14.31% 1981 -4.92% 21.55% 1990 -3.11% 30.47% 1994 1.32% 37.58% 2005 4.91% 15.79% As you can see from the table, since 1926 there have been nine occurrences of flat calendar year returns. Only once, in 1939, was a flat year followed by a negative year. In all other occurrences, the market rallied by at least 14.31% in the calendar year following a flat year, with an average return of 30.86%.
In addition, roughly speaking, based on the presidential cycle, the SnP averaged a gain of 9% in election years.
Dang, If only we knew Cramers SnP predictions for 2012. I don't want to know his reasons why he thinks up or down, I just wnat to hear him say "up" Or "Down". It's always good to consider a "schizo" prediction.
Setting up the year ahead is not difficult. I used to do it here in terms of the legs. the beginning and end of each leg was noted as an x,y location on a chart. X was the time and Y was the price. The last time I suggested 7 legs and their runs. Someone promptly asked: "what is a leg/" So ET is not the place to explain the next year and how it is going to happen. I did it; no one could follow it; and it turned out just as I said it would. I wasn't predicting either. I was just anticipating using the nested interlocking fractals. Someone mentioned Cramer. A couple of weeks ago he siad his "pretty girls" had been busted. The charts he showed were 4 months late in terms of anticipating the moments and articulating them. He was using MA's and they were very inaccurate; they signaled four months after the event. The GS replay of 2011 is typical of the financial industry. The humor here in ET is, as they say, priceless. Most people are defintiely fucked as far as what is going on. there is no point in explaining it to anyone who's head is so fucked up.
note that legs have retraces,it is where the BORTL is needed. visual image of a retrace,ladies and gents!
As usual nutmeg, you are trying to confuse opinions with facts. Nobody cares what the facts are. All we care about is the CNN opinion. Why don't you make yourself useful and check what the facts are concerning the valid results of what the CNN poll results are instead of interjecting your useless facts which are nothing more than past results. What are you or any other thinking trader going to give more credence to, facts or CNN poll results? otherwise I agree with opie, I don't want to make a move until I hear what CNN thinks about it.
A retrace happens within a trend. BO of the RTL happens part way into a reversal. Both of the above are legs of a different sort. The trader who makes money by trend monitoring and analysis, simply trades from FTT to FTT. Part of this strategy, plan and consistency is to hold through leg 1 and 2 of a trend and watch for the end of leg 3 @ the FTT. Implied in this brief comment is the fact that a person holds through a retrace and decides and acts at the beginning of the reversal. PA traders cannot do this since they do not have a leading indicator to signal the arrival of the reversal. Both a retrace and reversal begin on peaking volume. BO for PA traders is called a "confirmation" and it is also know to beginner types as the "second chance". When a person monitors and analyzes trends, he know a retrace is between point 2 (peak of volume) and point 3 (trough of volume) He also knows where the other volume trough occurs. It is on the BO of the prior RTL when going from point 1 (peak of volume) to point 2 (peak of volume Thus on his log he always "knows that he knows". He is always anticipating "The Pattern". In general, always what has to be taken into account is the possibility of a person being able to follow this or do this, or not. Ar some point in life, the existing belief system of a person prevents him form being able to learn, follow or do this. Give yourself the test. Draw the pattern form the above commentary. How can you correct your current misunderstandings? You can't erase them. Joking by posting out of your ass doesn't change you mind and beliefs.