First of all, I want to say that I don't have a strong opinion which way the market will break out of it's current consolidation phase. But with the series of lower highs in the s&p, the low vix and the traditionally weak september-october timeframe approaching, it seems like a good time to find some stocks to buy puts in with oct-dec expirations. I would like to talk about stocks that have interesting chart setups or fundamentals that you think will make them most suscptible to a harsh sell-off. I was waiting for a bounce to 990 in the spoos (lower high) to make my first purchases and this week initiated positions in GS, C, INTC and SNDK. All out of the money, dated sept to dec. I see head and shoulders and problems with the interest rate scenario for the financials, and sharply broken uptrends followed by a low volume rally in the chips. I'm only at about 20% of the position size I'd like to get to. Please give your suggestions and reasoning for more.
CSCO - consolidating below the 50 sma, a negative macd following a divergence. NXTL - below the 50 sma, and a negative macd. My hesitation here is the P/E. In a value market, 7.2 is pretty strong.
C is certainly at a pivotal point. The daily, 60, and 15 minute charts look ripe for a short based on ma's and macd.
Interesting to note that C opened on it's high today and sold off, not even a bounce as the spoos rallied to 1000. Definitely some supply there. It's the only position I have september paper in, the 42.50 puts, at .65
Taking a look at the current price action for the day in these two candidates raises an issue. It is possible to post a legitimate idea, and still have it be crap! :eek: