My name is Ryan, I'm a former t-bond futures scalper turned forex trader, I live in Chicago. I've been watching and researching EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and AUD/USD. I've been backtesting swing trading methods, but haven't found anything I like enough. If you have a profitable method and you'd like to share it, I'm looking for a trend following system with a 1-10 day holding period with a high success rate and very tight stops, I'm conservative and risk averse. I'd really like to either back someone or partner up with someone who shares some of the same ideologies and has the same personality and trades these markets. I'd actually be willing to work for free for a hedge fund in Chicago in exchange for training if that were possible. Anyone have any advice or willing to share ideas? I recently tried backtesting the tunnel method for the forex market but the whipsaws were ridiculous, I don't see how this guy Vegas claims he can make any money. It may be marginally profitable but the success rate on any given trade is like 25%. But anyway, thanks in advance for anything you'd like to share.
Billy, You are looking for a long term system, if you are going to hold for 10 days... in forex time periods of course. No doubt the higher profits come from the longer holding periods, but then the stops have to be accordingly larger to accomodate the daily swings. Each market has a slightly different personality. I think GBPUSD is the best when it comes to breakouts. Another market that is worth investigating is the EURJPY pair. It seems to trend well. These are my observations from the trend following back tests that I have performed. Good luck.
The longer holding period would be the result of holding winners. Longer time frames do not have to indicate wider stops.
Also why not do FX futures since you are already quite familiar with futures. If you used any technical system, it should work on the FX futures as it worked on the bond futures....
That would be a very good performance. Isn't it? "What is the realistic profit goal from forex?" http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=67565
my experience does not support that. my intraday trendfollowing futures methods do not work that well on forex. why do you think fx works as well as other marekts? just because it uses futures as a form? i believe forex is a different game.