Looking for peer critique

Discussion in 'Forex' started by teaze, May 11, 2011.

  1. yeah post it
     
    #11     May 13, 2011
  2. teaze

    teaze

    I don't know how to post video here that could show more dynamic of the moment. If anyone knows, let me know. Thanks.

    I have a screen shot of my entry which I thought was a good trade and turned out to be a loser. I understand that even the best analysis could result in a loser.

    I wonder if there is any other way I could improve this entry or you might have another setup in mind to this

    My workspace setup from Right to Left:

    60-min chart, 15-min, Dynmaic DOM ladder, 3-min, 1-min of Euro FX Future

    Under each I have Full Stochastics(STO) and DMI(ADX)

    Entry Reason(Scalp trade):

    60-min
    1. Although the 60-min price pattern displays a confirmed upper trend which was in line with daily chart, its STO reversed out of near OB(overbought) line suggesting a short term pullback to the trendline making it a potential candidate for a short-term short play on a lower time frame.

    2. ADX is declining with +DI (green line) approaching -DI(red line) suggesting a weakening bull confirming 1's trend.

    15-min

    1. Price has been in a confirmed a downtrend.
    2. STO couldn't make it to the OB zone and reversed which is in line with 60-min chart reading.
    3. ADX declines with -DI on top of +DI suggesting a rather a rather trendless state with Bear in dominance.

    3-min

    1. Price in Confirmed downtrend.
    2. STO bearish reverse.
    3. ADX flat with -DI on top and tilted up suggesting a potential strengthening bear.

    1-min

    1. price broke out of congestion
    2. STO confirmed the downtrend.

    My trade:

    Entry : Sell stop at 14229
    Stoploss: 10 ticks
    target: 1 ATR (showed on 1-min chart ) 6 ticks in this case.

    Thanks for your input.

    [​IMG]
     
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    #12     May 14, 2011
  3. teaze

    teaze

    It seems I could only have one attachment per post. Here is the screen shot during the trade.

    [​IMG]
     
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    #13     May 14, 2011
  4. teaze

    teaze

    3rd screenshot

    [​IMG]
     
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    #14     May 14, 2011
  5. teaze,

    You can first post the attchment to our server as you did, then click on it to discover the address and then surround it with tags.


    ES
     
    #15     May 14, 2011
  6. teaze those pictures show alot first things first get that ADX and STO off your chart it is worthless. All these indicators people post and say they use are lagging.. they are showing you what happened X bars back vrs other bars even further back.. all you need to trade is a bit of information concerning what you are trading and price..

    by using indicators you see what price has done.. by looking at price you see what price is doing.. the markets are constantly changing view points and decisions, the past do not hold much impact for what will happen.. even price itself does not tell you what will happen.. thats why the best you can do is learn to read price.. and what price is saying to you and what price is doing.

    I hope this make sense..
     
    #16     May 14, 2011
  7. second you are trading on a timeframe that is unsustainable.. I dont care what people tell you on elitetrader.. most of them are bleeding money form there trading accounts.. THERE IS NO EFFICIENCY IN FAST TIME FRAMES... for example you trade 30M time frame you place short at 100 stop at 110 and tp at 180 you say i have a good 1:2 R:R ratio and Im confident ill hit tp or wouldnt be trading this.. the spread is 3.. you are essentially adding 15-19% onto your cost base and its costing you a relatively large amount to sell this even if you do make money.. this means you need to be 30% more accurate to cover the transaction costs..

    look at a higher timeframe lets say you short on the car at 100.00 but your term is much more long term you say stop at 130.00 tp at 40.00 spread is 3.. you are only adding 2.5-3.5% to your cost base and if your trade pays you to short it you are paying back your risk over time.. and this will pay back the cost base and the risk associated with the trade.
     
    #17     May 14, 2011
  8. third thing you have to understand the natural price drift of what you are trading.. if you are trading something like the aud/usd the natural price drift is with the aussy because of the interest rate differential and inflation rate differentials.. so you know that costs to sell the aud/usd are extremely high.. but the rewards to buy the aussy dollar are extremely high as you can pay back your risk over time by holding aussies and selling the dollar.. so you should never sell because you would be trading against the price drift...

    as I say this I realize that nothing will just drift with price.. there will be pull backs and risk adversion but its your job as a technician to look at the surrounding data to find your optimal entry points with this data in mind so that you can maximize your trading efficiency
     
    #18     May 14, 2011
  9. fouth you can generally use confluence to find strongest demand/supply areas for your trades.. The most noticable supply/demand zones will be the strongest zones as those are the zones that good traders will be looking at.. you job is not to instantly trade these zones because you can not predict the future you can only read what is happening.. for example if the aud/usd is pulling back and you are looking for a buy on the aud/usd you notice a support zone that price might come off of.. you label that zone and watch how price reacts to the zone.. if price bounces falls back to make a lower low and then shoots to break the lower high.. you know that price IS showing excess demand for the aud. price HAS broken resistance and is bullish.. price begins to pullback and pricebounces again and continues to break the new high.. Price is showing continuence.

    you buy when demand shows excess.. then continue to buy as price shows continuence while protecting positions with stops but not restricting the upside of your trade with take profits..

    this is called Infinite yield and it will make you immensely profitable.

    GL nuke
     
    #19     May 14, 2011