Looking For Breakout or Trend following strategy

Discussion in 'Strategy Building' started by Daniel Hakimian, Sep 19, 2024.

  1. MarkBrown

    MarkBrown


    i will not sell you a system but i will give you one that will do what you want on the condition you share the results here good or bad and that you don't bill me for any losses you incur.

    one other condition that you mirror trade an account that i will fund, benefactor to be named latter.

    m

    tell me the markets you want to trade and if there are any other parameters

    i can already tell you that 40 and 2:1 is going to be tough and very unconventional. meaning you may not find it logical but if you trust the stats, it can be done. the more details you provide the better chances of achievement.
     
    #11     Sep 19, 2024
    beginner66 and Real Money like this.
  2. poopy

    poopy

    lol funded with what? Of all the things that will never happen--this will never happen the most.
     
    #12     Sep 19, 2024
  3. MarkBrown

    MarkBrown

    so motivational :) seriously thanks...

    all i have to do is pull one outta my ass...
     
    #13     Sep 19, 2024
  4. BKR88

    BKR88


    Find a successful trader and study their methods.
    Peter has been successful for decades.
    He’s mostly a breakout trader.
    https://twitter.com/peterlbrandt?s=21
     
    #14     Sep 20, 2024
    Probability likes this.

  5. This is for sure: the 1:2 R requirement, in particular, will really make it terribly difficult.

    A strategy with an R of 1.0 and a win-rate of 60% has the same profit factor as the one you’re looking for, and would surely be a much more likely find?

    Why do you prefer to take fewer than 3 trades per month? I ask because that will make finding a statistically valid sample-size, over changing markets, with a decent degree of confidence, particularly difficult.

    As others have rightly said above, the very few people who could meet the criteria you list surely won’t need or want to share their strategies.
     
    #15     Sep 20, 2024
    HawaiianIceberg likes this.
  6. Real Money

    Real Money

    I would imagine you would need a fairly robust set of metrics from multiple datas, and likely, a non-trivial understanding of probability theory to do this well.

    Inter-market will be involved, and you'll probably have to use some proxies for hard to get data.
     
    Last edited: Sep 20, 2024
    #16     Sep 20, 2024
  7. ironchef

    ironchef

    My humble suggestion: Ask a different question.

    No successful trader will give you their secret source even if you are willing to pay big bucks. Instead, ask for the analysis tools so you can develop your own secret source with them.
     
    #17     Sep 20, 2024
    bzakari and HawaiianIceberg like this.
  8. Sekiyo

    Sekiyo

    I would begin with the Turtle trading method by Richard Dennis. Checkout Livermore’s How to trade in Stocks and Tom Basso.

    Core Elements of the Strategy:
    1. Entry and Exit Rules:
      • The entry is based on price breakouts. For example, in System 1 (S1), a long trade is initiated when the price exceeds the high of the last 20 days, while System 2 (S2) uses a longer 55-day breakout for entry. For short positions, the inverse is applied (prices breaking below the 20- or 55-day low). Exits are typically determined by trailing stops, like a 10-day low or 20-day low for long positions, ensuring traders ride the trend but cut losses early.
    2. Position Sizing:
      • Dennis emphasized risk management by adjusting the size of positions based on market volatility. A key metric was the "N" value, representing average daily price movement over the past 20 days. This helps traders scale their positions relative to the risk each market presents, preventing any single trade from damaging the portfolio significantly.
    3. Diversification:
      • The Turtles were trained to diversify across multiple markets (commodities, currencies, indices, etc.). This helped them spread risk and not be overly dependent on a single asset's performance.
    4. Discipline and Emotional Control:
      • Dennis instilled a strict adherence to the rules. This mechanical system minimized emotional decision-making, preventing traders from being swayed by short-term market noise or personal biases.
    5. Long-Term Perspective:
      • The strategy often involved holding positions for weeks or even months to fully capitalize on market trends, thus emphasizing patience and consistency in execution.
     
    Last edited: Sep 20, 2024
    #18     Sep 20, 2024
    Darc likes this.
  9. Darc

    Darc

    Tests have shown The Turtle Rules no longer work apparently.

    The Market has changed, sped up.
     
    #19     Sep 20, 2024
    Sekiyo likes this.
  10. Sekiyo

    Sekiyo

    Sure. Not saying it works but the fundamental principles stay the same. It’s a good starting point.
     
    #20     Sep 20, 2024