stevenxcel I know how you feel, I think we all feel the same way! My own feeling is that if you are trading very frequently, day trading, the odds are stacked against you, over the long run. I am not saying it's impossible to make money over a certain period of time, to get a long winning streak. Plus it's fun. But if you look at it as a business, you may find that over longer periods of time, you're basically "not going anywhere" or losing money. For example, starting out with 10K, and ending the year with about 10K (or less, or only slightly more). You may want to check out Van Tharp's "Secrets of the Masters Game" http://www.iitm.com/products/Trading-game.htm Play around with the parameters and get a feel for what works, and what doesn't, OVER THE LONG RUN. I have also just posted a RandomTrader backtest tool, in the strategy section, which runs on NinjaTrader (which is also free). Play with the parameters, get a fell for what works, what doesn't, what feels rights, what doesn't.
Here is a method which would work if traded correctly. This is from street smarts by Linda B and Larry C. I day trade the NQ profitably (it has a smaller spread than the ES so you pay less in each transaction), and i use a methodology which is different than the one outlined below, but based on the same idea. The way i figure it, there are 2 main trends in a normal day. I attempt to catch what i call the morning trend and what i call the afternoon trend. I have different rules which get me into long/short positions. When i said that my methodology was based on the same idea as the one below, what i meant was that: after an extended downleg i look to buy and after an extended upleg i look to short. FOR BUYS (SELLS ARE REVERSED) 1. Yesterday the market opened in the top 20 percent of its daily range and closed in the lower 20 percent of its daily range. 2. Today the market must trade at least 5-15 ticks below yesterday's low This is a guideline. The exact amount is left to your discretion. 3. An entry buy stop is then placed at yesterday's low. Upon being filled, place an initial protective stop near the low extreme of today. Move the stop up to lock in accrued profits. This trade is a day trade only
Any simple system is not profitable. Any complicated system isn't profitable either. You need 10 years of screentime on SIm, 5 years on a sub $5000 account before you understand what trading is. Also you need to reserve 5 years of no income to to make sure you don't come across a market that is abnormal, like with a 1 tick daily ES range. YOU NEED 20 YEARS OF PREPARATION
Profitable systems are a dime a dozen. Just buy one of the many losing systems and do the opposite! This vendor has a system that is intriquing. I think it is some theme on the opening range breakout but don't know for sure. He does post his trading results daily. Maybe if anyone here is familiar with this system they can comment. http://2tradesaday.com/
When I was learning I was able to watch a few great traders at work. Dan Sullivan at Navillus Securities and Don Bright at Bright. I remember watching Bright perform fair value calculations minutes before the open. He then initiated about 10 trades at the open. Easily made money and cleaned uped in 15 minutes. Trading is subjective. It is without question that you must be prepared to train and learn a great skill. This skill will demand everythig you have. So watch price, volume, support and resistance. After a few years you will begin to see the real picture. But first you must be commited to a long journey. Please do not search or pay for anyones system. You will lose multiple times . Paying for the system, losing trying to follow someone you don't know and most important your time and confidence will be waisted. Best Wishes, Greg
You do need some sort of simulation of the equity curve (not only paper trading), before putting actual hard earned dollars at stake. That's why I like Van Tharp's "game", which is basically a user-defined equity curve simulation, a powerful tool. There's no laser-sharp precision here, but at least you can get an idea of where you may end up 50-70 trades from now, based on the risk profile of individual trades. Once you "get" R - and I mean really get it - you should be much better off. At least you'll have a more realistic view of the market and set of expectations. Then again, you can just buy 50 contracts and keep your fingers crossed . . . Why not
It feels like the discussion has gotten way too theoretical. I suggest we turn it into an exchange of insults, an excellent way to waste everyone's time
Hey bozo, simulations are an excellent way to waste time. Anyone who wants to get a feel of what trading is really like should open a mini forex account for as low as $200 and try his technical skills and risk management in the real world not in virtual reality.