Looking for a black swan trade in case Biden …

Discussion in 'Options' started by SoCalOptionsWriter, Feb 27, 2024.

  1. Cabin1111

    Cabin1111

    You could buy a SPY put for Dec 31, 2024!!

    No matter what happens in the election, it could be interesting...

    I am more conservative. I just try to keep fresh gun power on the side, for a major corrections. The correction happens, I buy industry leaders at a discount.

    Just me...
     
    #11     Feb 28, 2024
  2. Cabin1111

    Cabin1111

    You could buy a SPY put for Dec 31, 2024!!

    No matter what happens in the election, it could be interesting...

    I am more conservative. I just try to keep fresh gun power on the side for major corrections (sitting in about a 5% money market fund). The correction happens, I buy industry leaders at a discount.

    Just me...
     
    #12     Feb 28, 2024
    murray t turtle likes this.
  3. S2007S

    S2007S



    I hope that scenario doesn't keep you up at night.....the market doesn't care anymore about what happens in the white house and if by chance it did, it would last an entire 17 hrs....so don't even consider it a thought, and to think that's a black swan event, sheesh. NOT EVEN CLOSE to a black swan event!!!!! NOT even close!!!
     
    #13     Feb 28, 2024
    murray t turtle likes this.
  4. nitrene

    nitrene

    After the virus from China came out in December 2019 I noticed the USD spiked so I saw that as a sign that there may be problems so I started buying weekly 10% OTM SPY puts.

    When the US shutdown the country and the markets crashed I remember my $250 SPY put went to $30,000 in a few days.
     
    #14     Feb 28, 2024
  5. There should be an age cap at 60 years old for all politicians and judges. If you can't fly a commercial airplane then you definitely shouldn't be in charge of making decisions for an entire country.


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    Last edited: Feb 28, 2024
    #15     Feb 28, 2024
    murray t turtle likes this.
  6. smallfil

    smallfil

    If you have a substantial position and or substantial profits, this is the exact time to be buying put options. Sure, it will cost you monies but, you can sleep like a baby at night. You are guaranteed to get out at the strike price for the premium you paid within a specified time. If your stock continues to run up, the cost of the put option would not matter. You can also, buy another higher strike put option (for insurance) and sell the lower strike put option (for whatever value is left). Rinse and repeat as long as your stock is doing well. Sure, it cost you monies but, that is what insurance is for. Like car insurance. You paid it to protect you in the worst case scenario that your car gets totaled in an accident.
     
    #16     Feb 28, 2024
  7. 2rosy

    2rosy

    are there event contracts for this? or a betting site. You can always do a put back spread. Buy the dip if there is one
     
    #17     Feb 28, 2024
    ajacobson and cesfx like this.
  8. mervyn

    mervyn

    buy the f*king dip when black swan appears, if we ever learn anything.
     
    #18     Feb 28, 2024
    Lou Friedman likes this.
  9. TheDawn

    TheDawn

    Like many has already said, whoever is in the White House is not a Black Swan event especially if Kamala Harris is sworn in. She is irrelevant and will even be more irrelevant when she is sworn in. She will be influential for sure and will make her mark but it would be a gradual and subtle process and not a sudden Black Swan event.
     
    #19     Feb 28, 2024
    murray t turtle likes this.
  10. TheDawn

    TheDawn

    Is she having a stroke? Repeating those words over and over and over again could mean that her brain is losing memory and that could be caused by a stroke or a mini-stroke or some kind of brain injury. I remember my dad, after he had a massive stroke, this one time, he lost balance and fell and hit his head, afterwards he just kept asking me the same question over and over and over and over and over and over again and just would not remember the answer that I gave him no matter how many times I answered him.

    Instead of worrying about Biden's health, maybe it's her health that we need to be worried about.
     
    #20     Feb 28, 2024
    murray t turtle likes this.