This is completely non-partisan, but looking at intrade and other polls I think Obama is going to be a clear winner. It's just a guess, but to me thats what the evidence is pointing to. Note: I never said anything about whether I thought should or should not win. It simply looks like he is going to win, to me.
That site "predicted" that John Kerry would win back in 2004 too. We'll see if it's more accurate this time around.
Polls showing Obama up 6-8 points. There is so much going on now. Too many pnudits. Too many opinions. I am actually looking forward ot Nov 4th so this will all be over.
The people who will decide this election will be working class individuals somewhere in Ohio. I doubt they do intrade.
It just seems everything out there is pointing to a dem lead, but of course that doesnt mean anything, but you never know.
Intrade's numbers may seem to indicate an overwhelming advantage for Obama. In actuality, they indicate that McCain's probability of becoming the next President is about the same as Allen Iverson's chance of hitting a 3-pointer throughout his career. Iverson has hit quite a few.
A couple of things come into play when using polls and something like Intrade, especially in this election. As mentioned several times in other posts, pollsters don't use cell phone numbers when polling, and most Obama supporters/voters are likely to use cell phones primarily. I'm sure this will change in the future. At this point in time, I would guess that might account for the disparity between a few points in pollls and a wider margin with interent users. Of course, all this could change over the next few weeks, and we could also have a repeat of Florida 2000. c