It will move oil prices for sure. Olmert recently resigned due to corruption investigations. There are two contenders, Shaul Mofaz and Tzipi Livni. Mofaz is very hardline against the Iranians, and has said an attack may be unavoidable. He is also favored to win. Now if there is an attack on Iran, prices might go to 250/ barrel but there may not be much of a world left to spend you profits in.