market movement is fractal, you need to understand the fractal movement. it's pointless to 'smooth it away from your eyes'. you need to understand the proportion of the moves and decide whether it is significant to the trend you are playing, or not.
i agree, but we all can look at things and see different pictures ..........if i can hit a target with simple approach, then i use the simple approach....3/5 min charts is why most fail in this business....before they learn to understand trends, etc., they start with 5 and go shorter and shorter trying avoid the pain of losing ..sometimes they go longer and get eaten for lunch with bad stops....after having done that for years, i prefer smoothness and good stops and longer charts..........best wishes and happy trading..
So if a move is "80% complete" statistically in the fractal you're monitoring and a BO occurs do you a) Take the trade and hope for the best b) Scalp c) Fade d) Pass I think you need point of reference and a plan. This helps me at least, FWIW.
i don't play the breakout, because it has extremely high probability of failing. i don't scalp it, because i don't scalp in general. however for someone who knows how to scalp, he can get a few points out of it. i may fade it if some criteria are met. the problem is that the market may not necessarily move in the other direction. it can come back to consolidate and just stay there. it may give you hell before it actually starts to move in the direction opposite the breakout. so in reality, i usually pass and don't touch it. this is because i am a more conservative trader and i trade what i define as 'fully fledged moves'. to each his own style.
I was simply getting others to think about a BO. All BO's are not alike. Yearly, monthly, weekly, daily, 2 hr, 30 min, 15 min 5 min, 1 min "breakouts" all differ. If the ATR for a 2 week period is 50 and a move is ready to "BO" but the 2 week range is already 60 points you might want to sell rallies with weakening momentum. Downsize your fractal, establish a channel, and sell the top of the channel averaging down as profits accumulate. You have to work your position to downplay risk. That is if you're "wrong" you don't get clobbered and if you're right you cash in for your efforts. FWIW