Look Ma, no indicators!!

Victor,
Reiterate prior input that there are good tools out there that scan, analyze, and chart fresh data, and alert/trade on the basis of imbalances between supply and demand

 

right. a simple thing is to take an EMA on daily price and compare all days following a day when the close was above the EMA with those where the close was below the EMA. if you take an exponenet of 0.1 and look at all days where the close is 2.5% o more below that ma by more 2.5% you the following finding:

dailyGain range
0,02% 1,33%
0,04% 1,15%
n=4339

above are mean dailyGain, and mean range for all days. one line below is the median.

now the same stats following the condition.

dailyGain range
0,17% 2,31%
0,26% 2,12%
n=348

this kind of analysis can serve as a starting point for digging deeper IMHO. i did some stuff in toby crable kind of thinking as well, but i found the effects rather small. though i admit i spend just a week or two on it.

 

FWIW you might want to read the comments on pattern recognition by William Eckhardt in Jack Schwager's THE NEW MARKET WIZARDS. Good trading.

 

incorporate time into your analysis as well. price time and volume. in that order of priority.

 

I've seen this before from others and I have to ask: how can you analyze price without automatically including time? When you look at a price chart, it isn't price versus temperature.

 

50cent, could you clarify? thanx.

 

i think what he means is that a 30 min trendbar at 1300 means something different than at 1000 ... within a standard chart you see time, but you cannot differentiate between different points in time. the well known u-shape of volatility throughout a trading day is not captured by standard software. if you liked to get a clear, time-unbiased picture of intraday development you need to adjust for this.

 

thnx, Man.

 

find a way to decide when a breakout is considered pre-mature. then you shouldn't play that breakout, or perhaps you can fade it. it will save you from a lot of false breakouts. true you'll miss out on some, but overall you will greatly increase your win-loss ratio.

 

the shorter the chart time frame, the more u c, and the more emotional turmoil ...short charts show great pictures that turn to ugly pictures and u say "I saw it, where did it go?"... losing trades over and over ....zoom in or zoom out...zoom out is smoothing and soothing..........lay them side by side and compare.............