Think again! - Mortgage rates rising, at 5.85% for a 30 year fixed - Nonborrowed bank reserves now at -111,855,000,000 as of May 21st!!! http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/H3/hist/h3hist4.txt - BANKS ARE BROKE!! THEY ARE ILLIQUID, ONLY THING SAVING THEM IS THE FED. - Home sales still on the decline - Record supply of single family homes - Banks still not lending to consumers - Oil near all time highs - Banks trading at all time lows - Real rate of inflation near double digits (? probably) - Gasoline above $4.00 a gallon for regular unleaded - Diesel fuel up to $5.00 a gallon - Consumer confidence at 12 year low - Take out commodities backed companies and earnings are down 20%+ - Unemployment projected on the increase - Dollar still near all time lows (Yippee we have gained .03 on the Euro.... lets have a party all our problems are fixed) Oh yeah, this is already priced into the market. HAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHA We are trading only ~5% off for the year! What else do you have to read to see this is not a healthy environment?
lol none of those things are a big deal. The market climbs a very high wall of worry. If you think the market should be lower why not short?
Excessive valuations such as in early 2000 and double digit inflation as in the 70's. The CPI numbers aren't indicitive of a serious inflation problem. However, there doesn't seem to be anything compelling that can end the bull market which began on October 2002.
In the future (15 months or so): dollar up, equities down, commodities down. Why? read here: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=127543&perpage=6&pagenumber=28
I agree, the problems are too serious to be the regular old wall st. worry trades. The economy is in some serious trouble. Keep an eye on the financials and their "hocus pocus" balance sheets. If they can't keep up their balance sheet shuffle game, and we see just what type of skeletons they've got in their closets, Oh Boy! GS and LEH are reporting mid June, they're gonna set the tone for Q3 in the market. It's like when you're on an elevator, full of people, and you have to fart. You try to let it out in small, silent doses, hoping that no one notices. Sounds good, but all you're doing is giving everyone a slow, steady stream of your funk. You might as well rip a good one, get it out, and be done with it. It will stink for 1/10th of the time, and you'll be feeling much better, much sooner. The only drawback will be how everyone talks crap on you for being such a shit bag. Cheers.
I love the bearish sentiment. There's no place to put the trillions in cash that are just sitting in negative yielding reserve accounts aside from equity markets, and when commodities correct, which will be sooner rather than later, that will be the final boarding call. Hope you get an early seat on the train, because it will fill up fast.
LEH's 10Q to the SEC has some "interesting" filings that raised my suspicion. LEH is also trading below 20 and 50 dma.
Too bad we have to trade actual real stock prices rather than fantasy prices that would make more sense to the way our human mind is wired.
Mental Health check up due at County Outpatient Clinic next Tuesday? Ask your doctors to prescribe some good anti-depressants like ZOLOFT,PAXIL, ATIVAN or WELLBUTRIN...