LOOK AT THIS CHART - all you predicting mofos, what will SPY do next?

...congrats to the ten other guys who voted with me!....

 

i voted UP, how did you vote

i've seen that headfake a million times

 

Well sure, if you can only predict market direction at certain times... I should've included a poll option that says:

"I can predict market direction sometimes, but not at this point."

If I could predict market direction sometimes, I would still be a millionaire, it would just take a little bit longer.

 

Where is the "stays in the range/consolidates" option?

 

Agreed! I recommend having a short shopping list ready, but the trend is still up.

 

^ did I not just explain how that is no different from claiming to be able to predict price?

When you gusy are "reacting" to price, you are doing one of two things:

1) Predicting movement (because you are assuming that because this particular thing happened, now some other thing is more likely to happen. That's a prediction).

or

2) Randomly entering (because just because some particular thing happened, the next event is still entirely random. eg. the trend is just as likely to continue as it is to end)

 

I think that's a very good way to look at market prediction. I say I don't predict, but of course we all do. Even the scalpers. Its just a matter of when are our predictions likely to be more reliable, and also a matter of how far out we are predicting. Shorter the time, the more reliable the prediction.

 

what he says and to add something: it is much easier to "predict" pullbacks in already known trend than top or bottom reversals.

 

libya, earthquakes, tsunamis, saudi arabia, european cds hitting all time wides, market rockets forward.

if that isn't an indication to you bears that this market is high on fed skittles, then nothing will be.

 

How are you defining "already known trends"?

I've never seen anyone who could give a CONCRETE definition of when you know a trend is happening vs. chopping or switching directions.

Sometimes people will be like "oh yeah there's an uptrend right now" but then all their long predictions lost money so they're like *backpedal backpedal backpedal* "well actually that was a trend exhaustion and now we're in a downtrend" except then the market starts going back up again and they're like "no wait, I was right the first time! Buy my course!"

lol @ market gurus.

Anyway, I think by most definitions SPY has been in an "uptrend" for the last few months. And this is a pullback for sure, so are you guys BUYING since we're in an "uptrend"?