longer term shopping list....

Discussion in 'Trading' started by praetorian2, Sep 16, 2001.

  1. For a longer term aspect (which is rare for me) I think we should start a serious discussion of those sectors (stocks) that we should look into. The us economy has just been drastically changed, and the federal government is guaranteed to spend hundreds of billions in an effort to combat terrorism. Lets try and work together to figure out which sectors will experience a significant insurge of business in the next year or so.
    Because of the significant opportunity costs involved in longer term investing... Unless I can make at least a few hundred percent like 4 months out, I'm not gonna bother, even though there are tons of great ideas that will do 50% in 6 months or so, I'd rather not tie up the capital like that cause I can make more actively trading. Therefore, lets look at names that trade under like 10 or so (50 dollar stocks rarely quadruple, especially in today's markets)... Don't rule out the use of longer term options however.
  2. I've thought almost a week about this now, and here's what I have.
    NYC and Northern NJ REITS- Unfortunately, upside is probably 30% at most, but there is now a decent shortage of office space, and rental rates are bound to go up significantly. I would look to those with no exposure to tuesday's events. I would also probably only choose those stocks that have longer term calls available. You can easilly make 500% on some out of the money calls, but I don't have any names yet. I assume that tomorrow they'll all have a firesale, and that's the time to buy. (I'd appreciate any names, I haven't finished researching these yet)
    Insurance stocks- I think this is probably the trickiest area. You have to know who's liable, and for what... On the other hand, there's monster upside, especially in the reinsurance names. They'll get nuked tomorrow, and after picking through the reckage, I'm sure we'll find some gems to buy out of money calls on. I've spent at least a dozen hours researching these, and all the ones that appear to be liable are fully solvent and very capable of paying. I've even talked to a few insurance bigwigs, and all are very glad to pay, b/c they can hike up their premium rates hugely, and take this as a monster tax loss which will make profits much better in the comming years. It seems that those companies with no liability will be the ones who will miss out actually (which seems odd). I'm still working on names, but these are all still working ideas (aig, afl, rnr, re, pre, axp, met, aig, all) basically any large one will be fine, though I do have my faves out of that group.....
    Defense names- There will be a large buildup, and any defense contractor should benefit. Unfortunately, I feel that the upside is limited in many of these names, though there will be a tradable rally for a few days most likely. If some of the bigger ones are off b/c of sp sell progies, I may pick up some of the near calls as a limited risk way to play this. RTN, NOC, GD etc...
    Tech- I think the storage sector could benefit, or at least be perceived to benefit. Many companies will now realize that they need better backup methods and off site storage. I would stick to the bigger names who could land the bigger contracts. IBM is probably the best, with emc in close second. I would definately play calls only, cause they're probably both due for an earnings warning soon. I think these are definately a shorter term momentum type play.... (I want to know what you think on this one especially) Emc calls trade almost at the money, and you can probably make 3 pts or so by expiry on friday. Same with IBM (especially if it's under pressure from futs).
    Safety stocks- Gold always seems to do well during panics, but I assume it's already gonna be in the price by open. I don't know, but mo is probably gonna be good for a point or 2 if it opens down from futs pressure (which is likely). I would like us to compile a good list so we can just send in a progie at like 10 of say a k of each of like 20 names that seems good but down on sp futs pressure une
  3. Some might call this unamerican, but I have a few short ideas as well. I would look to DIS- There wasn't a chance in hell they'd make the numbers before.... Now, ABC hasn't ran a commercial in a week, and no one wants to get blown to bits at the magic kingdom, and no one will fly there anyway... Seems like my best idea, I intend to buy puts.
    Airlines might be good too, but I assume they gap down too much. I'd like more short ideas that won't be down 20% on open.
  4. Magna

    Magna Administrator


    One viable short has got to be Hotels/Lodging, as both business and leisure traveling has (and will) taper off considerably.
  5. babe714


    NY office Riets

  6. Fletch


  7. interesting list babe, do you agree with my threory on that? I'm looking at that briefing site, they have a pretty thorough listing as well.
  8. babe714


    They may choose to relocate out of the area completely , safer to be less centrally located in the post sept 11,2001 world .
  9. elie


    dont You think, that security equipment for airports etc. will do well?


  10. Elie, I do agree with you, but I was not about to post names that only trade 50k shares on this board. I have spent the majority of my time on those names looking for a few that we can gunn though. I'm not gonna post my decisions here though. Sorry.... But I recommend that everyone looks at some of the names in that sector, there are some really juicy opportunities.
    #10     Sep 17, 2001