Long term short Microsoft

Discussion in 'Trading' started by Mecro, Apr 23, 2003.

  1. Mecro

    Mecro

    Hey read this very well and non-biased article. Long read but well worth it.

    Me thinks that MS is going down unless they have a huge restructuring.

    http://www.aaxnet.com/editor/edit029.html#altpath

    P.S.: Let me know if the link is not working
     
  2. CalTrader

    CalTrader Guest

    Read the article ..... Most of it is poorly thought out. Many of the points are simply incorrect. Its pretty clear that the author has little or no experience in corporate data centers or in writing or architecting enterprise information systems. The article sounds more like a fanatical point of view rather than a position paper backed up by cold hard facts.

    My advice: ignore the article and get the facts from reliable sources. Conclusion: MS faces a tougher business environment as does the rest of the software industry. Sales cycles will be longer and margins may shrink. Still, there is plenty of business and their model is not about to collapse. Neither are those of their major competitors......
     
  3. marketsurfer

    marketsurfer Vendor



    i would not short MSFT at this time.

    best,

    surfer
     
  4. Mecro

    Mecro

    Fanatical point of view?

    The guy is writing about small business technology and of course MS has to be covered being that they are the monopoly leader. As for his "little or no" experience, I can personally vouch about what he says about corporate servers and upgrades with MS because we just went through that hell at my evening job at an investment bank. What he said about consultants is exactly what someone I trade with said (heI did not see any biased tone of anti-Microsoft, in fact, he even covers the facts about MS's strengths and why most business will stick with them.

    As for cold hard facts, maybe you should try checking out his sources and excellent citations. His points are greatly backed up, and a lot of what he states, I have heard and read even a year ago.

    Apparently you also missed the point that MS does rely on growth and constant upgrades of their beyond shitty products. And in case you have not noticed, their margins have been shrinking relative to what they were. People nor businesses are not buying their BS upgrades, hence MS is running out of products to sell. If you do not consider Linux a serious threat to Microsoft, you do not know about business and corporate technology.

    Out of curiosity, what do you think of Microsoft products?
     
  5. CalTrader

    CalTrader Guest

    Read their financial statements carefully and then get back to me.

    Yes linux is a threat, not a business killer.

    If you know what you are doing then their products work exceedingly well and are very reliable in their current incarnations. The problem is that there are many people who claim the expertise in their product lines but in fact are far from expert: this is a problem Microsoft has yet to admit or address. Their products are not as cheap to administer as they claim and expert software developers are rare: there are however many low paid people at many companies that MS claims can write high quality high performance applications for their platform: that is a lie. Again, their systems are more complicated and require more expertise than they are willing to admit. Thus their products are not really less expensive platforms upon which to develop applications - unless they are simple and rely on out of the box "wizard" functionality.

    Perform a detailed analysis of financial statements of Oracle, Sun, Hp, Microsoft, IBM and then come back with an informed opinion ....
     
  6. Mecro

    Mecro

    "Read their financial statements carefully and then get back to me. "

    Oh do you mean the zero debt, tons of cash lying around? Or the fact that MS makes more in investments than actual operations?
    Well DUHHH, it's a monopoly. But let's look at the fact that MS has lost money in everything besides Windows and MS Office. A LOT of money. All of that everything else, they actually had competitors (wow, smth so rare in corporate USA). Or maybe, lets take a look at their outstanding lawsuits that they constantly have to pay off and the many more to come.
    This company would have more success just becoming a bank.

    "Yes linux is a threat, not a business killer."
    No except that it came out of nowhere, is starting to dominate servers and large corporate mainframes and is slowly seeping into home desktops. I doubt you even have a clue how superior Linux is in everyway to Windows. BTW, young kids and teenagers that get interested in PCs use Linux, not Windows. These are the next generation if you do not get it. In other words, as the population becomes more and more computer literate, Windows platform is going out the window.

    "If you know what you are doing then their products work exceedingly well and are very reliable in their current incarnations."

    Quite the opposite. WIndows is meant for the average moron. If you actually understand PCs, you realize how crappy MS products are. It's obvious to me you do not really comprehend computers.

    "The problem is that there are many people who claim the expertise in their product lines but in fact are far from expert: this is a problem Microsoft has yet to admit or address."

    Wrong again. Read the article. MS products are aimed to require less experienced staff. It's part of their marketing pitch. This occurs at my workplace by far. When I read what he had to say, it all made sense why idiots at my bank can be tech support admins. But wait, they are MS NT certified.
    If you talk to any real programmer or computer science Ph.D, these people do not even touch MS products unless they have to or unless they need to do some dumbed down function like typing a quick letter.
    Do you know what an expert would does if he was to supervise an MS NT server? He hires a bunch of low paid morons to do the idiotic maintenance work because that's all you can really do.

    "Their products are not as cheap to administer as they claim"
    Their products are the most expensive to administer and this new License 6 will let MS rape the businesses but make it sound like they are getting a great deal.
    So you basically get an inferior product that is much more expensive. Does that at all make any sense to you?

    "and expert software developers are rare:"
    I can find you 10 expert self-taught software developers within minutes just through MiRC.
    You do not know what you are talking about. All software experts I know do firm-specific software development. Most are actually unemployed right now. They are not rare at all and this is just USA we are talking about. I can go to Moscow and find a top level programming team within weeks.

    "there are however many low paid people at many companies that MS claims can write high quality high performance applications for their platform: that is a lie. Again, their systems are more complicated and require more expertise than they are willing to admit. Thus their products are not really less expensive platforms upon which to develop applications - unless they are simple and rely on out of the box "wizard" functionality."

    Ok now you basically supported what the article had said. MS products are more complicated in fact, because they are so badly done and written. Running a Linux based business requires high skill level. Running an MS based business requires a much less skill level, but tons of maintenance and work because even MS themselves cannot fix the Piece of Shit products they make.
    Look, take a rotten old boat and a brand new one. You can spend all the work you can to patch up the old boat, but it will never be as good as the new one. So for all the work and maintenance, you still get worse performance
    Thats the situation with MS vs a real piece of software.

    "Perform a detailed analysis of financial statements of Oracle, Sun, Hp, Microsoft, IBM and then come back with an informed opinion ...."

    Here is factual information you cannot realize. MS IS A MONOPOLY. Do you know what business risk that involves? Practically none. Only risk is legal and we all know how that turned out.
    How can you even compare real companies that run a real business that actually requires competition versus a law breaking scumbag monopoly.

    You know what why don't you analyze how the Xbox operation has performed so far. That is a perfect example how Microsoft really operates in a real competitive environment. Actually every single venture of MS has been a pathetic failure because this company does not know how to compete. If the latest move with their rape of a License agreement and .NET does not succeed (probably won't), you can expect the same type of a real competitive environment. If all the stock options are cashed out, who knows where MS will be. Not saying they are going away, but they simply have nothing to truly compete with besides their balance sheet and enslaving license terms.

    You know, in the case of the Carnegie monopoly, at least he was involved with a simple commodity, so if ever his monopoly was broken, there was still a simple product to sell that was hard to differentiate from the others. MS makes a horrible and inferior product and if their monopoly is ever truly broken and all their slaves...oops I meant clients basically started to shop around, MS as a software company would be gone.
     
  7. And http://www.kernel.org/ and http://www.openoffice.org/ are eating away their monopoly ...
     
  8. Is it in June that the Microsoft case is to be decided by the EU?

    Will "old" Europe engage the process vindictively?

    Will certain U.S. companies and states assist the EU with it's case against Microsoft?

    Remember GE / Honeywell?
     
  9. Mecro

    Mecro

  10. Wow, yet another fanatical religious debate about the evils of Microsoft and Windows and the elegant pristine beauty of Linux - complete with those ubiquitous "you don't know your a** from third base" kind of comments we've all come to expect and adore :)

    But why is this is in the Trading forum instead of Chit Chat?

    Because someone thought that Microsoft (whose cash on hand alone BTW would be something like the 35th largest company in the US) was doomed and thus a great short??

    Kind of slim rationale to elevate a software religious argument/Microsoft bashing jamboree to trading discussion status.

    So if this is a trading discussion - how/when would you time that short entry and what timeframe are you thinking about as "long term" - years, decades, ???
     
    #10     Apr 23, 2003