I missed getting filled - low was $70.08-I had intended my Buy-stop level to be activated at $70.00 with $70.25 as the limit. I apparently reversed the order ticket- thus making $70.00 the Limit and $70.25 the stop. Just Sloppy, poor business placing orders in a hurry. XLE closed up 2.5% on the move. I will reverse the ticket to what it should have been, and see IF XLE gives a pullback/retest of that level. Note i marked up the chart with a price move i have noted in the past- where support appears to break, price drops lower, and then reverses and pushes back through the channel - and breaks out- View Wycoff and see if this qualifies as the 'Spring.'
PJP, SPXH TRENDING HIGHER - AT RESISTANCE- OUTCOME DETERMINES WHETHER THE MARKET FEELS THESE WERE OVERSOLD EARLIER- AND THAT THINGS ARE NOT AS DESPERATE AS ONCE MIGHT HAVE BEEN THOUGHT.
FINALLY- MCD- Interesting to watch what occurs- a very large gap move higher on earnings- and basing over the past week-
Thank you for charting the price and volume with coordinated color. It is much easier to evaluate. All five charts appear to me need more volumes to push them either higher or lower. None of them indicate obvious direction. They are hanging there. QQQ seems having more momentum. MCD has two gaps a small one 111 - 111.10 has been filled. The larger one 104.25 - 108.38 is waiting to be filled. All are at critical points and wait for the market to show its hand. Just my two cents of opinion.
Thanks for sharing your opinion! I'll include volume on charts for a while to compare- and see if I can make a stab at any application-or interpretation - that would assist in guesstimating future price action that's replicable .But, i don't rely on many indicators- and I think a good basic chart should be as simple as possible- with as few items as needed that are open to interpretation- I think a PA- Price Action advocate would tell me that everything that can be discovered is demonstrated by Price action alone- and anything else is quite lagging and secondary. Price action taken in context of trend- support and resistance- "Supply and Demand" are all enough areas to delve into- to master- that one could likely trade a lifetime without adding more to the mix. Let me point out: The desire to add more refinements to a trade decision is an attempt to align as many moons and stars as possible to ensure that your trading decision is well thought out and "qualifies" - Meets all the Criteria- passes the Entry consideration test. The more qualifiers one adds, the more complex is the trading decision, and the more rigid it becomes and difficult to adapt it to changing market environments. Studying Volume has to be done simultaneously with studying Price action and understanding the larger context-I also previously expressed some dissatisfaction in my own mind concerning the idea that one should wait to enter a trade breakout unless it occurs on high volume- YOU ARE LATE To THE PARTY- and Last at the Watering Trough- because the HERD preceded you-. Let's assume that the concept of waiting to see big volume confirming a big move higher is a fallacy- as to a 'safer' and much belated entry. If you-or i - are to employ Volume- we want to see what pre-breakout Volume signals- perhaps there is 'stealth' volume- just prior to an explosive up move? What I am trying to say here- Is trading AFTER the fact is already known- and the breakout occurs- Is obvious- Instead of studying After the fact- Study the price/volume just before the act occurs. If Institutional (LARGE) money is the smart money- They don't want to be the last one's to the party- They seek to develop larger positions ahead of the crowd chasing breakouts. NONE of this is my original thinking- I'm simply passing on what little i have retained that seemed to make perfect sense - I think there are several active commentators here on ET that have reinforced that point of view- and i borrow from them and try to assimilate that perspective- So, Instead of Studying What occurred belatedly After the breakout on High Volume- Because the Big Move is shown to all who care to see......Why Not learn to study and find signs- footprints- of accumulation ahead of the Breakout- Which allows the nimble trader an earlier entry- lower Risk- and larger net gain. The HERD follows the move- In some cases, The Move continues and continues- Far beyond what anyone expects- The Herd gets rewarded when this occurs- In some instances, the move fails- What happens if you were the guy that bought the day ahead of the Herd? Ahead of the 'breakout?" You likely captured a 2-5% upside move on the open- So- Instead of studying past charts to see where Volume confirms the big upside move- Let's look to if Stealth Volume preceded the breakout- where it could be recognized and an earlier position could be taken- and a lower Risk entry and larger possible net profit was there ........The way to consider that type of study would be to 1st review the price action leading up to the breakout day- and determine if there were price indications- and after add in Volume as an additional factor- Does this make sense?
11.04.15 Trade note- Energy had a pullback today. My order for XLE was filled 30 @ 70.25- I have a wide stop at $67.00 on this entry. I have raised all of my remaining stops to Break even or higher
Hi SD, What you have said makes sense and that is exactly what I want to study and have not found the answer yet. I am still working on it. ;-)
It's somewhat as i suspected- Stockcharts includes several indicators that interpret volume- and perhaps that average interpretation tells the real story of the underlying demand through buy or sell volume- http://stockcharts.com/school/doku....l_indicators:percentage_volume_oscillator_pvo. The value in an indicator is that it does not knee jerk react to every day input- but averages it out-revealing the suggested underlying directional strength or weakness. As with most indicators, they recommend it should be confirmed with another different indicator and not taken strictly as a sole indication of where price has been- or is headed.
A bit of market weakness today ahead of tomorrow's labor report- All positions dropped below their recent up trend mode. Cyber Security - FEYE had a considerable sell-off today on missed earnings. The CEO was on Cramer this pm and was talking about market cycles and PR type stuff. I think that FEYE was a market favorite - and that portends ill towards the very focused Hack position- I will be selling Hack at the open simply because it is a very focused segment ETF- and if a principal player-component is weak and disappointing the street, the entire sector is likely to follow suit. i raised stops on the remaining positions- and XLE raised to $69.50 for a minimal loss-