WOW! Markets up across the board over 1%! Fed must have reassured the market with their guidance! I actually thought that the market would have gotten more information to react on yesterday- and it barely moved- EWG did pop today- I think on Greece news- I did not put on a trade- there although i had considered it ........Now that Greece is on the deadline - I may try for a buy-stop above the close. BRKB followed suit - If the Russel can rally, financials rally, BRKB is due as well. (No position , but I like to monitor it on occaision. UUP- dollar bull dropped lower- close to a dbl bottom A hedged way to play Germany was mentioned by Seymour on Fast Money -HEWG- I think that a buy-stop is a prudent way to enter a trade here- with a stop-loss under the recent 3 day low. DXGE is a similar product from Wisdom Tree. There is an odd spike higher in the Feb chart of HEWG that is not reflected in DXGE. HEWG has 3x the volume of DXGE. TBT made a move higher today- will have to trail stops cl;oser here. XBI +3% +/- today ; Hack up .5, pjp -FINALLY- moving higher! up 2% ;xlf up +.9%
I had sold the IB position of PJP- it had not been acting well relative to the XBI- With today's breakout of the sideways range- (I did not have an order waiting) I will seek to get a position with the lower side of the range as a stop-loss.
Was stopped out on TBT last week. I was filled in HEWG today at the open at $27.00- it moved up over 3.5% PJP my IB add is $79.53. nice momentum finally - xbi- added +3% Small caps- IWM moving higher- up 4% for the year- QQQ's pushing 110.00 with a doji at the high- AAPL is failing to lead the tech market ..... Semi's XSD on the verge of trying to go higher- Hack is at it's recent highs- This looks like the real thing- Markets shrugging off Greece- Fed is behind us for a while- This is counter to the seasonally weaker market this time of year. DXJ reversed for the day closing higher- xlf- a diluted move higher- The XLF has generally been lackluster- barely up for the entire year-- within that sector, there have been some considerable outperformers- BX has moved 30% on the year- BAC is down for the year- JPM is up some- GS up- I think some of the brokerage houses have done very well- Without additional free time- I am simply adding to what seems to be working- XBI, hack, PJP, and HEWG on buy-stops-
I added to XBI & Hack- My average cost now in IB with XBI is now 21 @ $244.54. Today's close $259.00. Price is extended on momentum, and today's move had no follow through-but the markets were up only slightly. I made the decision to overweight XBI expecting it to continue to outperform- but the wider volatility it can exhibit- means I want to keep a stop a ways away as long as it seems to be holding the uptrend. Recognizing that price is well extended beyond it's " normal " tracking to the ema, the add to the position was expecting a further momentum move- and that appears to have possibly stalled with the markets. At this juncture, I will raise a stop to $255.00, and expect to be stopped out and the opportunity to get back in as price comes back lower. Hack is in a consolidation following the recent move higher- 100 @ $33.10 PJP - 30 @ $79.53 and I did not get added on HEWG - it gapped open higher- I think there is still potential - so I presently hold 50 @ $27.02- an entry position - I hold a small XLF position- some of the individual big banks/brokers- GS- JPM are trending nicely- BAC a bit choppy- and BX oddly- has outperformed, but has been in a pullback/consolidation- BX may be a better single breakout higher candidate on the financials- reportedly- some of the Schwab-Etrade, brokers may be doing well - in the self-directed sector- worth considering- IBKR- has gone from $29 to $41.00 in 6 months- Not too shabby! My focus has been ETF's - but when a broad sector ETF such as the XLF gives very moderate gains- perhaps there's a more focused ETF that would weight the brokers higher-? No time to do that research at present- A long ways to go on the home construction project-
Looked up etfdb and the only Broker-Dealer etf listed is IAI. IB is not among the holdings. https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239504/ishares-us-brokerdealers-etf
Thanks for taking a look-and posting the link- I think it's worth drilling down -if one has the time- to find out where out performance is being generated- in the different market segments- The benefit of trading with ETF's is that the individual stock Risk is eliminated- The downside- of course- is that the gain via the ETF is watered down- individual outperformers as well as underperformers may make up the ETF. There are certain sectors that seem inherently stock Risky - like Biotech- You might get the next big winner or get the one that drops 50% overnight on 3rd phase testing failures- I think choosing an ETF is simply the prudent way to approach that very speculative sector. Pertaining to financials- I think comparing the broker dealers to the sector in general will show that the broker/dealers are perhaps responding better to this market- and perhaps for reasons altogether different from the Fed raising rates- Broker/dealers perhaps reflect the money management trend that is occurring as more individuals seek to take more active control of their investments.? While I would like to have more time to develop this line of thinking- a recent example is the wide area of Transports $tran or the index in general- If one breaks it into the different categories within, Airlines had had a big run recently - Rails perhaps not so much - And deliveries- UPS, Fed Ex- - Suggesting a less than robust economy- Out of the larger wide grouping- Airlines certainly were leaders for a while- I don't know where they stand today- point is- there are segments within sectors that- if one has the time to search out- a more focused narrow ETF may provide a better opportunity- for a while. Thanks for posting!
XBI hit my IB stop and filled 21 @ $255.00 - I think locking in some $14 or so dollars of gain above my recently increased average cost- This relected a position size of 1/3 of my account value- Which is taking on a higher level of Risk than one should do- I also hold XBI in another different account- and moved the stop-loss to today's low as well. I also raised stops in all remaining positions- HACK, PJP, XLF, HEWG. At this juncture, The Risk looks greater than the possible reward- So, If my stops are filled, ideally I lock in some profits- and reduce additional downside. The crap with Greece, Icahn, The Fed- It's what keeps CNBC on the Air- and viewers like myself tuned in- But will what happens this week matter 6 months from now? How many events get the market in duress for a day or two or three, only to be discounted the following day with a market relief rally? this stuff gets old- Glad i don't butter my bread with it. Let's just get a 15%- 20% correction and a breath of fresh air in the markets- We need a reset here, to bring things - at least in the mind of the investment community- back to a point where metrics like earnings and valuations are considered to no longer be "over valued" and just built up on a house of cards of QE inflated valuations. Outside of an overdue market correction- what will bring us back to that type of equilibrium? Usually, the pendulum swings way too far when it occurs- Seasonally, this is not a great time of year for market gains- However, There will be opportunities for those that have the time to seek them out- I personally find I have less and less time of late: And just when you think you got the picture in focus, it changes- This may turn out to be the longest bull market in history- with a few bumps along the way...... I will likely end up in stopped-out cash this week if Greece continues to erode the market's confidence- That will be good- as it will perhaps allow a lower reentry. Most of my positions should be stopped out at break-even or with a small gain. I've reverted back to the fast chart- and raising stops on weakness. There's something to be said for raising cash in volatile & choppy environments- My attitude is don't be concerned with what market gain you will miss-out on- Be more concerned with being prepared for greater volatility swings- . In the interim-My greater daily focus: Work on the addition/storm room continues small steps at a time.
PJP sold $80.30 on my tightened stop-loss - Oddly, there was a positive reaction in some healthcare stocks due to some resolution of Obamacare-and I would have expected PJP to have moved higher- PJP- like XBI- was well extended on momentum above the ema on the fast chart- and technically has not broken down- The opportunity is that it will retrace back a bit lower to the ema - but noticing the past daily chart- there have been some volatile declines during each recent high and the following pullback. I think the best way to position myself is to have a limit order waiting to fill based on a lower price - I won't seek to get the prior intraday absolute lows of $76.50- Instead, I'll try for a penetration of price back into the recent support range and a fill on a limit of $77.25 . I will do this with a partial entry position- perhaps 20 shares- because it is extreme Hubris to assume that tomorrow's chart will respect the levels of yesterday's chart. It may turn and go higher tomorrow- In which case i will repurchase on a resumption of the uptrend. With XBI I will hope to get a fill on a pullback that tests the prior consolidation- $242.00 is a midpoint there- for an initial partial position. i am limited with only 3k in freed cash- so xbi is just 5 shares at this limit- I can modify the order as cash clears. HEWG - modified the stop to the ema $26.84 (daily 10 ema) Hack looks weak- stop raised $32.60 - This would be a losing trade 100 shares $33.10 avg-cost or a loss of $50.00 if filled at the stop price. fundamentally, I believe this market segment of cyber security is going to be in demand for a long time- and i've managed to make a few profits here previously- That said, while I want to "believe" that my assessment is correct- Why even bother with stops at all? The discipline of a fast chart says I have a close on the daily below the ema- and a second day of lackluster performance- There is some distance back lower to the prior "support" of $30.50 so I'd rather take a few small lumps at the higher stop-loss - Not any time to provide any charts these days- Did get a 1/2 grout mix into some of the reinforced cells this pm.
Still holding HEWG- surprisingly, despite the Greece refusal - HEWG was up- at least on Friday- I have limit orders pending for both PJP & XBI- PJP $77.25 & XBI 15 @ $238.00. Both of these orders are placed within a prior consolidation range- It is entirely possible that price will not retrace to these lower levels- It's all about Greece - Again.
Wow- HEWG of course stopped out $26.66. Bad day for the markets- good day for anyone holding short positions- I'm presently all cash in my IB account- with both PJP and XBI coming close to the level I have limit orders for. Cash position is $15,421.00- down from $16,225 . or a -5% drawdown. Actually, a 5% account drawdown is Nada- nothing in the larger scheme of things- but i I will say , that adopting the more stringent faster chart recently- and taking steps - such as raising the stop-loss on XBI & PJP to lock in gains on signs of weakness- prevented a larger decline and locked in some gains on both of those trades- Btw- I'm not adverse to taking short positions- or volatility positions- Wish I had some on- but too busy and not in tune .- In my IRA account, I have been largely 98% cash for months- In Part because the markets are highly valued- and the other part is that the IRA account only offers mutual funds- and has restrictions on moving assets - and no stop-losses- all at higher expense ratios. I think I have simply postponed the decision as to where i will move those assets to- Vanguard- Wealthfront-ICA- there are several others- or something i could possibly try to manage myself- My stint this year trading this past 6 months shows that i am not the agile informed tactical trader that can snatch gains from a volatile market- and that i do not have the personal time available to consider managing a larger amount of assets- nor the expertise to manage a portfolio allocation - and periodic rebalancing- By active trading, I, or 'we' 'feel' we exert a certain amount of control over our financial destiny. We have entry points and stop-losses, and elect to follow a certain set of parameters- a time frame we think we are in tune with- What happens- when the parameters of that time frame are broken by the market choosing to hold a sell-off day or two or three? Do we stay the course, or is the volatility too uncomfortable? What if the volatility causes a 5% decline/ ? That's traditionally been a 'Buying' opportunity these past 5-6 years. What about -10% ? More than that? Where will it end? No one knows when the snowball starts rolling and gathers momentum and becomes much larger than anyone expects. I caught a partial clip of Cramer tonight post CNBC- Suggesting that today was not a Buy opportunity- That this pullback could be perhaps much larger- perhaps more dangerous due to the large % of complacent market holders. Throw in Puerto Rico when you're talking about debts that will remain unpaid.......i didn't even watch it all- It's television, good theatre- BUT, LOOK at BRKB- The Canary has dropped to the bottom of it's cage. Looks ready to go lower Nexzt support is 126.00 $tran sells the same picture- Weakness- Quite simply- No one knows where this decline will stop and move higher- A resiliant market would shrug off Greece, Puerto Rico and minor economic disruptions- Instead, these may spark the sell-off fears. Why bother with this long winded post? IF BRKB blew through a prior support level without nary a pause, Where might the overheated -highly priced biotech sector go to? How about $215? for XBI? $74.59 for PJP- I have lowered my limit orders and increased my share/position size-Weekly chart view-