In the prior post - I wanted to point out that each of us should compare against an index- both performance and Risk- and do not bother trying to compare against another trader's results- What counts is each trader's tolerance for Risk - balance against the Reward. This type of market is a great teaching market- It is a warm-up - to what may occur down the road here- I think I posted the other day I was getting my ass kicked- A little Ben- Gay and I felt better- added to my positions- and - Damn! NOW I find I am getting my ass kicked in a one legged ass-kicking contest- Yes- Nose down in the dirt- Good visual! I wanted this thread to be instructive in how my greater participation and attention provided larger performance- greater gains- Somehow, I got that wrong- it seems-in the short term- because i believed that once strong market segments would continue. I got hit hard today as i added to Friday's positions- and saw a lot of market decline after the opening filled my buy-stops. MY present account value is down 4.6% or $700 from the $16,225.00. I added one winning trade today- TBT- I also screwed up- this am- I intended to add 20 shares to the HACK position- with a Buy-stop- and instead Bought 120 shares on the auto-fill order .and that dropped 4% . There is no excuse on my part to overlook this order- - and i thought I had taken the time to review and adjust stops this am- but I overlooked the added auto-fill block order. Granted, i only had 1 cup of coffee - but how could i have missed this order? I think an astute trader recognizes when the environment is changing- and they adapt to that change by either increasing or decreasing the market exposure, and then seeks to adjust to where the market flow is going. I got sucked in by the market rally the other day- Not pleasant- This sector swing can be demonstrated by the trending that occurs - Dollar- oil- oil services- emerging markets- CU-copper- Dollar- Euro- Tech, Volatility makes for the need to consider wider stops- and - one has to ask- If the stops are hit- is this the playing field one wants to participate in? Final thought for this pm- Are we on the verge of a weak market report this Friday, and a greater sell-off? Will May see the proverbial decline? How am I positioned here? Do I hold - is this near a low? I feel like I have gotten caught by the market with my hand in the cookie jar- This is where I do not want to allow myself to turn from trader into unwilling investor- and i will take the loss as opposed to the mental loss of a break in the mindset/approach. I cannot allow 1 wrong to spawn a greater wrong.
Checked my stop orders this Wednesday am- I still hold partial positions in TQQQ, XBI,-full position in PJP, Hack, and a partial position in TBT- stop @ $44.80- TBT closed weakly- near the recent prior $47.50 level. Can it get past this level? USO closed above the recent range- technically 'breaking out higher'. Buy-stop entry $21.00- lmt $21.10 .I had a prior buy-stop order that was gapped over.$20.53- $20.60- I will widen that limit to $20.85 . XLB- @ the low side of the present uptrend move- Buy-stop $50.60- limit $51.00 Futures are reportedly higher at 6 am-
I was able to catch this Janet Yellen- market newsmaker headline this 5.6.15 lunch. Email notification- the remaining TQQQ stopped out- XBI is up slightly- TBT moved up sharply- I should have been filled on an addition to this position. Time to hunker down and evaluate- This has all the earmarks of the "Go Away in May" sentiment coming true. If I could access my trading account - I likely would be reducing my losing positions . I see HACK is heading straight down- and there is not a lot of history to this ETF- nor volume. I had an order adjusted that should have filled on USO as well-I gave it some ample range with the limit. Even the venerable BRKB- Canary in the Value Mine has not been immune to the selling the past 2 days- after what looked to be an attempt at reversing the recent downtrend that has been ongoing since the beginning of the year. The question to be reconciled- Will we have a deeper-steeper correction- and when is it a good buying opportunity on reduced valuations? I just caught a news clip- Pisani- discussing VIRTU- SYMBOL VIRT- Just started trading- HFT firm- mentioned that they do well trading currencies-during periods of Volatility- I hadn't thought about this area of financials- It sounds like it 's an active trading firm- using HFT techniques- Could be an interesting way to get multiple exposure to trading currencies- or whatever else they actively trade. I mention this company- it's not an ETF- but it sparked some interest in that I don't claim to even grasp the overall currency pricing/trading-that EuroD...has mentioned. Owning some shares in a company that can go both long/short with active trading in these markets might be a prudent way for an investor to approach a confusing subject-And one has exposure theoretically to multiple trade positions- Might be worth looking into as a niche segment worth pursuing. It also seems that automation- in many forms - is getting a much stronger hold on the markets of today- HFT- Robo investing- And Where else ? Lunch is over-
FWIW- I found that i was a better investor- blindly contributing money on a weekly basis into a diversified allocation for those years-My trading lacked due to my own personal fear and negative bias-I also viewed my trading account more as a recreational hobby- Last year was a distinct improvement for me- despite the fact that the market's overall return was less than the prior 2 years-It was solely because i had made a personal shift-several areas- Only trade ETF's -Individual stocks carry too much RISK -IMO- I tried to shrug off the bearish bias- focus on the chart-and start to apply a faster time frame chart (2 hour) to take entry and exit signals- I also realized that with the faster chart, I would get stopped out-more often- due to a stop trailed too closely- and i finally learned to be willing to turn right back around and reenter back into the same ETF that had just stopped out. That was a productive approach within that market environment- This market is proving itself to not be as agreeable to that method- A lot of trading success or failure is not based on technique- I wish I could expound on this from years of trading success. Excuse my generalities- But 'We' - retail traders- are slow to adapt- and modify when we get presented with higher volatility or sector rotations- We have not established a methodology- much less done any homework in seeing how our approach worked over the past N years. A lack of specificity in our approach defines us - because it also suggests that we trade based on how we feel - or think the market will react- When we look to TA - it gives us an opportunity to provide a framework to enter and exit trades -based on criteria we can choose from. There is not a single technical method that will enable us to achieve 'success' Likely , the path to 'success' would include a good ability to adapt in changing markets- to identify when it is time to pour on the gas, and when to let off. We also don't realize that it is OK to lose money when we make a trade- As a matter of fact, this is likely a major reason that we retail traders "feel' when we get a loss- an emotional reaction- and that is not a plus in doing business where losses are to be expected-a normal occurrence and a cost of doing this business. and the willingness to take a controlled loss is something to be seen as a necessary milestone- in adhering to a disciplined approach. I personally think the wide & evolving spectrum of ETF's makes a great method to employ with the reduction of Risk by holding multiple companies at one time- You cannot wake up one day and Dennis Kozlowski style- find the CEO Fiddled & partied while Rome burned- With ETF's you can be long or short a wide index- or do the same on a very narrow segment-at a very low cost- YES, the index can decline large- but never as large as a single stock in that index. " need to look at that and the need for more structure, effort and discipline in how i approach this. " This is a good place to start-Consider a technical approach that you feel makes sense- Time frame- Then go back in time and 'Sim" backtest - how that consistently applied approach would have fared- This is actually a lot of work- but may provide insightful information. There is a lot more- When putting on a new approach- in a new market- Position sizing works- A trader that will try out a new approach that looks promising after backtesting- should apply a basic position sizing model when testing that approach in real time- real trades- In general - Testing a new approach or technique- start with a max of a 10% position on any trade as the max- and a 1% position size on the potential loss- This works- Once one determines the approach is potentially viable- the test parameters can be increased- You have to realize that if you have 5 positions all in, and each position has a 10% stop-loss- Market volatility may take out all 5 positions- and the account is down 10% in a single day. If you limit your test exposure to each position is just 1/10th of the overall account- and you hold the position Risk to less than 1%- you then become more capable- because you have a metric - a measured way to evaluate your potential trade- Risk. This is a good & necessary starting point- It allows you to evaluate Technical approaches when the markets were positive, and also when they transition- Ultimately, When you decide what your preferred time frame is , and necessary Risk - It leads you to compare how you apply an approach with how much Risk you are putting on in any single trade- A fast time frame - quick response- more false entries, stops- Slower time frame- wider stops are required- Ability to stay in a trade longer . I have to note that holding a Cash position - is indeed taking a position- It is OK to not put $$$ at Risk- to not take less than opportune trades because you feel you need to be involved- . Besides selecting the individual Stock- the individual ETF - one should also evaluate the individual larger market- and don't feel compelled to have to have an active trade- (I need to work on this myself) Nothing wrong with being the more tactical trader that takes fewer shots based on a higher probability target. I personally do not consider losses on a dollar amount- but on a % of portfolio amount- An account decline of 4-5% should be considered potentially "normal' As we extend past that level- Let's regroup- I'm at that point in the trading account - Time to be less aggressive- more defensive
Europe down- US Futures looking like a down open at 6 am- Reviewed my stops on a daily chart- Most everything is sitting close to the stops-See what today brings.
markets looking brighter at lunch -Which of course comes with TBT & USO declining today- The jobs report Friday sounds to be an important item for the markets . I did catch part of an interviewer that asked if the jobs report comes in better than expected- does the market rally higher because of the good number- improving economy- or does the market choose to interpret that negatively- meaning the FED will be compelled to raise rates sooner-.......Glass half full or half empty.....
May 7- Market put in a higher close today- TBT "rolled over" -and hit my raised stop at $47.00 I was "lucky" - in that I raised the stop to reduce any potential reversal loss- but still gave it some leeway- So, a smaller loss is always the best loss- XLB also stopped out and then rallied higher $50.21. USO- oil went down today- Close to reaching my $19.80 stop- I could try to react and tighten the stop higher- or put in a sell order- but the stop is at a valid level- Inside the recent consolidation area that price broke out from. This could be 'retest' of the breakout- or it could go lower Friday. In after hours, I am seeing higher gains in biotech- XBI, and Hack- that are not reflected on the closing charts-None the less- The losses in the stops being hit was not offset by the possible gains . Net result is that my account balance has an additional decline- I certainly would like to see a 3-4 day rally, where i could trail stops back up and recapture a bit of what I have given. This is how an Investor may feel- looking to salvage some skin..... As far as stops- I have looked at what should be logical stops -based on lower support levels not being broken- Over the past year- such pullbacks were generally buying opportunities- But this year- and recent month - has seen a different shift -The larger volatility swings- prompted me to knowingly take on some wider stops % wise- based on the daily time frame- That has not served the purpose-though- although I am still holding long positions-However, I am running thin on patience- and optimism- I think stops set tight will either get executed on tomorrows report- or price is pleased and gaps higher- While i hear Cramer talking up the reasons the market Could rally- It is simply a crapshoot as to which direction the market may go- I'll assume the direction will be higher- because if the market breaks down - It feels like it's an -OMG moment- BUT, look at where we are- where the market has come- in just the past 1 year- Looking at the Bigger -Weekly picture- SPY - Broke out last May after several volatile months- Went from 184- to 208 or a YTD return OF 13%- That's almost 2x the Historical average. OF course, that came with a bit of volatility- including a 10% correction last Sept-Oct. If we should make a 10% decline - price will breach recent support-. " The Market" has put in some substantial gains in recent years- but that also occurred with a good deal of volatility . To put this in perspective- consider a look at the monthly chart going back a few years- Consider that since 2011, SPY has not closed below the fast 10 monthly ema-although there were inter month penetrations along the way. Using a Monthly chart would not be appropriate for traders- and perhaps not even Investors- because by the time the month closes- a lot of damage could occur- However, present price looks dramatic on a daily chart- but not so on the monthly- If you have the longer term view, you get nervous if SPY closes under $202.00 for the month. For Most of US on this site- A monthly chart is not something we normally might view- But it does give a wider pesrspective. This chart suggests we are basing sideways- near the recent high made in FEB- Perhaps all is not as Dire as it may appear...BUT, .There are still 3 weeks to go for the monthly bar to close....
Futures up @ 6 am- Jobs report pre market will get interpreted- but which way? GAp higher or gap down lower? I'm not putting on any additional trades- stops are in.....Might reassess this afternoon if I get out early.