PSCT_ I chose PSCT without a lot of forethought-It represented small caps and a segment of the Tech sector- so I thought it might be in a sweet spot if the swing into small caps has merit. A better choice in the narrow it segment might have been HACK- with all the news about Korea, HD, Target breaches etc- a fund that focuses on it tech security might be really well positioned- We'll see if PSCT manages to outperform the IWM. I believe i have made a mistake and overthought this trade- I simply could have gone long the 2x RUT trade, and had a leveraged trade with likely decent volume- For example- IWM is 18M, while PSCT is 10k- Poor judgement- The lower volume and narrowed sector mkt really limits the opportunity- I could have instead chosen a leveraged RUT small cap 2x or 3x TNA - I may close this trade when i have some cash cleared-and take the higher volume leveraged play that tracks the major index. Why fight the bigger picture?
A good friend wrote me concerned about my recent trades posted here. - Although he was not specific in his concerns, his caution to me was that I was making trades Intraday instead of EOD- due to the holidays/vacation, availability of real time screen time. That perhaps i was losing my objectivity- my edge....my perspective.... My friend was correct- in that by trading EOD, and not in real time- there is not any pressure to make a decision to buy this minute- or in the next 5 or 15- You are viewing a static chart that told you what has already happened during the day's active hours- and making a decision on what appears to be a likely move within a trend set up. You have the ability to stand back and grasp the bigger chart/time frame- compare- got all night to consider a trade- sleep on it and decide before you leave for work. I would not have the grit to be a day trader! Yet , there is something very gratifying to getting into a trade early- recognizing the reversal move, getting on board, and taking it higher-particularly if this can be repeated for added gain as i sought in DTN successfully on several prior moves- A good trade executed properly as early as it can be is a process to be appreciated- depending on one's time frame. My friend also asked about a position I had taken in BRKB in a different account a year ago or so- It was actually in one of my wife's account- and it turned South 2 weeks after i entered, and i stopped out for a small loss, it declined an additional $5 and then reversed- moved higher- went flat for 6 months, and then rallied after August and made a 29% gain above my entry. I failed to follow BRKB, and instead reallocated those dollars to DTN in that and several other accounts-and vacated the market for the remainder of the next 6 months. The return on the DTN trades - when i got reactive- was perhaps about a net 13-14%-plus a small amount in dividends- perhaps a net 15% overall or 1/2 of what BRKB actually did. Hindsight is always 20-20- or until we really look closer- I started off in a trade, it went South, I took a larger loss than I would have today (I was trying to cultivate a longer term holding mindset)- $116.84 on 12-23-13- it went up for 1 week, $118.66 then Jan 1 started a 4 week decline. I said-" MY "mistake' was not in selling BRKB was after it went higher the following week, I should have had a stop-loss just under my entry and gotten taken out closer to Break Even- sold weeks later at $113- the next week, the stock dropped down to 108, but then rallied higher." BRKB made 29% as of a few days ago. Impressive gains- My alternative pick made 1/2 - My friend's point -although he did not know the results- has merit to consider- The selection one chooses can be managed and perhaps successfully traded for additional gains- (DTN) but if those gains are sub par comparatively- why not seek the most promising candidates within a segment?> Yes ., DTN provided a 2x gain compared to the market historical averages, and with likely lower Risk (beta) -but to be outperformed by BRKB 2 : 1 ? So, selection is important- I did not chase the SPY- but perhaps should have instead of the other choices- The advantage of taking a relatively short term approach to trades is that one can be nimble when needed. Tactical trading can be done in a matter of days rather than weeks if that is what is required. Or stepping aside altogether- This market Christmas rally has taken me by surprise-As has the historical successive higher weekly closes- Someday, this will not be the case- but to bet that tomorrow is the day is a fools choice- Whatever happened to Peter Schiff? Gold permabull for the past 3 years. Lesson to be learned is that the market makes swings that no one expects- This permabull rally with the US leading may unwind someday- but it is a fool that tries to fight the Fed trend! Just get ready to lighten up as things get choppy-JMHO
This Monday 12.29.14- Dow closed down slightly- IWM higher- SPY higher - IBB , CUR, TVIX all up slightly, allowing me to consider raising stops- PSCT down slightly-but i will allow this stop to remain as set. Since the RUT went higher- my rationale for the PSCT as a small cap focus to ride the same wave does not seem to be starting off in lockstep.... The fact that the DOW was down perhaps is a sign of future DOW weakness as the large industrials face issues with currency valuations and foreign exposure- The theme some have promoted is that the (US) small caps having lagged will now take the leadership role in 2015- Large caps having global exposures- small caps US centric and benefitting from reduced energy costs, improving consumer sentiment, low rates, and a FED very accomodating. I want to discuss the CURE Trade- and to take myself to task for being slack in not immediately setting a stop-loss when i had the chance- One can have any number of excuses-in why they didn't do what they should have done when they had the opportunity- OK- Internet outage is rare- but it happens- It caused me to miss a reentry on the market Rally- Feeling like Crap and under the weather - excuse #2 I then applied an approach- Sunday pm - using a limit order lower than the trending price- hoping to get an intraday spike in volatility to give me a nice fill- expecting the trend would go higher- Indeed , I got filled Monday at the lower price, but instead of rebounding higher- it closed lower. I also caught a spot of the local crud- sniff-sniff- Not only do I feel like crap, I don't review the chart with any sense of concern- don't set a stop with this new position- go to bed early , oversleep- go to work-late- and Wham! CURE Drops over $10 that day! There is a lesson here. Forget the friggin excuses- stops are mandatory because the unexpected happens. This is rare for me, but it happened. A week apart, but it happens- S---- Happens- Prepare for it in advance and it is a non-event- or minimal. If one looks at my limit order fill- , price went down -fills at my limit- and closes lower- This was not a typical trade for me- I always use limits on orders- normally I place an order to buy with a limit with an attached bracket stop loss as well as a limit sell price higher- I didn't do that in this type of order though- and i think i felt under the weather and expected i would deal with it the following AM- but awoke late for work and never had time to do what i should have done the evening before! SET the Friggin STOP! No computer access during the day- not even at lunch ( I am at different locations) So, along comes me feeling better with a day off pre Christmas, and i am doing damage control- I have a belief that the healthcare/ biotech sector is going to be a driver for years to come as us geriatric candidates seeks to prolong our existances. Unless gov't stamps the sector trend out with over regulation. With the republicans in control, that likely will not occur. Damage Control- DAY Off- Put in a position of potential Day Trader- I see the recent healthcare sell-off as a possible opportunity to perhaps get back into the trade on a pullback- Everything is selling off because of some news about GILD and Express Scripts- It is affecting the entire sector! That seems to be market knee jerk reacting and seeing a boogeyman for all the healthcare stocks- Maybe it is profittaking, and it's just an excuse- I go long at the open and add again within 30 minutes-and double my prior position entry higher- My position size increases, I get near a full position coming off this swing low- that i hope has some legs. I also went straight into IBB with an overweight BUY. It is now a few day's later- both positions have continued to move progressively higher, and it affirms -in my mind- the benefit of applying the faster chart - Instead of using a 2 hr chart in real time, I think I used a much faster 10 minute chart- The end result is positive- Both Cure and IBB are above my entry costs and appear to be trending higher- Stops can be elevated - possibly in IBB to the entry level and in Cure to within 2-3% of my averaged entry cost. There is no reason based on present charts to get the stops too tight- but there is a comfort level in having a trade get to break even ASAP. We allmay screw up from time to time- In this example, applying the fater chart to get a better entry (and having screen time at the right time) , may have salvaged a losing trade into a break-even trade. While this chart looks 'timely' , I have a somewhat larger position that is in cash due to my mid December expectations that is not benefitting from the market gains. That is a different subject matter....
12.30.14 Down Day for the markets across all indexes- IBB, CURE, PSCT all "rolled over" with price closing lower and dropping under the 2 hr ema-Today short positions saw some upside- and the one saving grace in my portfolio was the volatility trade i had entered before Christmas. I entered it on perhaps a whim and because it looked like it was not declining further-so- time for market complacency to get a bit of a wake up call- I had done this a couple of times with UVXY with just a couple of shares- and the right approach then- and likely now- is to not expect that the reversal entry I took to be the start of a big conter trend move- I mention this because the market trend has been overwhelming- and to bet against the trend is not a wise move- very short lived pops. That is the way I have taken prior volatility trades- not expecting major moves- but taking quick tactical trades, and getting ready to bail on any sign on weakness- Those prior "experiments' worked out for small gains-and experimental dollars at work- and this present position is more sizeable, and is also today above my entry by 6% +. The tactical way to approach this is by closing in and viewing a faster time frame chart- Not trying to hit a long term home run here- just a bunt to get on base- serves the purpose. As the trade moved and closed above my entry, That's 1st base- Second base is the stock continues higher and closes well above my entry- allowing me to get a stop above my entry. All of this has occurred within 4 days. At today's close, a higher move looks likely. The net gain in TVIX value offset the decline in gain in the remaining positions- As i quickly scanned some charts here EOD- all seem moving into a potential pullback mode. I have closing bars below moving averages across the board- at least on the 2 hr chart-Enough to ask the question is there more to come? Need to adjust stops higher just in case? Putting this into perspective- Is this selling not just locking in some profits for 2014? As my healthcare entry stocks have pushed higher - and i am looking at market wide weakness and in these sectors- I will likely raise my stops under today's pullback lows. I don't have much in terms of gains- it's not about profit taking- it is perhaps about stepping aside while some Tax loss/gain trades are exercised in a flat market- see how it shakes out. Conversely, with TVIX- I am raising the stop to above my entry and below today's price swing back low. I simply don't care for PSCT- selling at MKT Stops raised in IBB & CURE- any further decline and i will be out - for the short term
12.31.14 TVIX went higher today with a 14% single day upside move, offsetting the pullbacks in my other positions- This account is actually closing the year at a new high thanks to TVIX putting up a nice gain today. Toot , toot! Right direction at least! I stopped out on only 2/3 of my CURE position- I am left with 5 shares as a mistake on my part- I intended to have that stop for the entire position-I legged into it in 3 separate segments, and overlooked including 1/3 in the stop price- carless on my part. I will include the remaining 5 shares for Friday's orders on a stop.. Sold 10 $126.72 on a 127 stop. PSCT was a decision to sell at the open regardless- It was a poor selection - clear it out and select anew. PSCT sold at $50.25- a losing trade- approx -I think the entry was $51.09 if I can read the chicken scratch on the ledger sheet correctly- -a 25 share position- The IBB has a stop at $303 - and it has come close but did not execute today. That stop is about $4.00+ above my entry- or approx 1% gain. TVIX updated-
How to close this year out? Let's start with transparency-and sharing some past experience. I hold other investments in accounts separate from this 'active" IB trading account- company retirement accounts and other brokerage accts. Not large as accounts go- but somewhat larger than this trading account. My personal 16+ years of investing/ trading experience has taught me that - for myself- I am thankful I did not try to focus on trading my retirement assets as I did trading assets. I think this is an important point I would like to pass on and share to perhaps the 1 or 2 persons reading this thread that may have taken similar steps now as i did back in 1998?- tech bubble- Even back then, as i came to a level of financial awareness that I had not planned for a later time in my life- I was handed a lump sum check that had to be in turn rolled back into a retirement account- I think it was about 18K or so- Paid a local broker (edward Jones) some 5.75% to invest it for me- he put me in the 5 different boxes (asset allocation) - Got interested in what this money was doing- got out of some funds- bought an internet trust, had a tech trend in play, learned to trade with an online broker- made a lot of gain-(memory thinks account grew to 32k) lost everything i made and then a lot of principle on the decline of tech and my lack of knowledge. I continued to gradually win/ lose over the years- as my trading was intermittent and not focused- I took small profits, used wide stops- and hopefully made every mistake out there- but i know i am still learning- the next lesson will be around the corner. I had winning periods, losing periods, ground lower and lower in assets. Part of the driver for me was Greed, but also Fear that i was not prepared for the future- That 18k was a relatively small amount of money- I ended up with it smaller- One of the concepts i didn't appreciate back then, is that if you lose X % amount in value, you need to gain x% +% to get back to break even. If you hold a $100 stock and it loses 50% - The stock is at $50.00 If you hope it will go back to $100, you will need a $50 gain- or a 100% gain. This is a simple concept but not really appreciated. Fortunately, I was lucky that my company inititated an IRA program and i invested in that- and in recent years opened additional Roth IRA- I did do a good exit trade in October 2007 in the Investment Accounts-for both my wife's and my account- Thank you TA-market handwringers were right- Gartman- J Battaglia- etc. but failed to jump back in in early 2009 though- Despite that not great -reentry - The investment account has plodded on and on and has become an example of market compounding-succeeding generally without much intervention from me- (although i am essentailly in cash today- choosing how to reallocate) . The investment account has continued to grow- assets are purchased every month on a dollar cost averaging type of allocation- account is not charged any commissions per transaction. My investment account started much later than my trading account- but has SOOO outperformed because it has been done with consistency of investment and not meddled with excessively. To the extent that I did meddle with the investment account, I believe i was too conservative in the allocations. I would present this concept to readers here- for them to consider if anything rings home- Have a totally separate Investment account - perhaps a Vanguard brokerage account- with either a diversified commission free etf account- or if undecided and want to get a simple approach- invest with a single target date fund- and add to that fund every month-Roth IRA would be my 1st choice- to max out- also commission free! and -did i mention beside expenses- NO COMMISSIONS! BTW- while a brokerage account at VAnguard requires $3,000.00 to open- A Target date account is just $1,000.00 to open- Great way to start something for someone when young- !Got kids? Get them started in a target date fund target at their age 70! Get them contributing to it- Set it up as a Roth- tax free- teach them to invest a 3-5% of each paycheck- every dollar- -fruit stand- lawn mowing business- kool-aid stand- you will set them a life pattern early on - and they will be multi-millionares and retired at age 50. Wish I had been taught such a life lesson and been willing to have the discipline to do it- To the fellow reader here that may feel the Need - Got to make this Succeed- Life has caught up with me and i have to make a difference by increasing my assets NOW!- I am behind the 8 ball, and can't get ahead! Got to get Rich- This is my big chance- Everything is doing great (The complacent ones) Only You know your own situation- but it is likely not as dire as it feels- Nor is it as good as it may feel. Yes, I'm speaking to both of us- Sometimes, when we only have our own feedback - we lose our ability to have a logical perspective- AS A trader- I underperform the market. The Investor side of me is a great success -and would be better if the trader side had not held that back. What I want to share- is be the Investor First and largest and consistently every month, every quarter, every year- . Be a trader with a smaller and separate amount of your net assets- don't keep funding a trading account with assets that should go to an investment account. You have responsibilities to not only your family- but to your self- If you are restoring your trading account balance- meeting margin calls- You are screwing up and it is time to take a breather and get a reality check. WE- Collective WE- are in this for the long term- If I take 5% of my investment assets and 'trade' those assets- and lose that investment- I've learned a lesson. If I take another 5% - let's call this one a loan on our family's future prosperity- because my 5% loss would become a 20% return over a few years-and it becomes a loser- I now impact not only my "free assets" but my family's future assets. For myself personally- keeping a separation between trading and investing accounts has been a winning approach. You may want to give it the same consideration- An Investing approach can embrace larger swings- and yet stay the course- with continued regular investments buying both at market highs and market pullback lows. The best in dollar cost averaging. My goal for this thread is 2 fold- Selfishly -it coerces me to treat this account with respect and not as a recreational sideline- I may have some time and job limitations- but I have stepped up my intent and commitment- Thank you JS for allowing me to realize how removed I was.......and to stepping forward- there was no reason to continue the status quo. I also felt that i have the potential to realize some success, and in the process- share some of that development- struggles or gains - with those on a similar path in their lives- What the heck- If I can perhaps inspire just 1 other person to not screw up trading like i did- that's good Karma. Outside of myself- and personal gain-or loss- I'm willing to share the experience- HEY, I already lost more a decade + ago in this account than I will likely every make back in the next decade if I'm a success- That's correct- Take $18k up to $32K and down to $8.5k. That's what happens when you don't learn and you don't take steps to do things differently. Here's to doing things differently- Happy New Year 2015!
ENDING 2014: Well, 2014 ended on an upnote due to my position in TVIX- a volatility play. Actually ended up a year end high - thanks in part to both a fast chart strategy and taking some contrarian plays. This account - and the methodoligy- is to see if I can effectively employ a shorter term chart to longer term positions for a net gain. and repeat on pullbacks- for a cumulative larger gain. i have not developed a specific set of divrse instruments to be traded- so, it is a goal in 2015 to define specifics trading candidates, and alternates- and to limit those to a narrower field- To keep this in perspective- I am including a screenshot of the active IB account- It is a relatively small trading account- Going forward -what is important is not the $$$$ amount but the % change in the account value. The $$$ do not account as much as the % gain or loss does. So, a $10,000.00 ora 100,000.00 - or a 1,000.000.00 account- % gain or loss is the equalizer.
WELCOME 2015. Today is the traditional day to make resolutions for this year that usually include quitting smoking, drinking, losing weight, healthier life style-etc. How about becoming more profitible in the trading account in 2015- At least Exceed the market return. I have to have a way to compare my own results against myself - or -perhaps a market benchmark. I ended 2014 on a "high" note - with approx a $1,337.00 gain after commissions. Additionally, there was $204.00 in fees for the year. IB has a minimum number of monthly trades or there is a $10 fee, and a $7.50 quarterly Roth IRA fee. Dow was up 7.5% for the year,SPY went from $180 to 205 or 13.8% . Total net profit for the account was $1132.00 after fees. net 12.77% Year to Year gain. The account value 1 year ago was $8,760.00. The overall net gain is respectable, but not outstanding. Being a smaller account, the fees $204.00 + the commissions $118 added up to $322/1377 = a 23% take away from the profit side. HMM- Fees count, and add up- However-if I had made these transactions through a conventional $7 broker- the commission expense would have been 2 - 3x higher than the combined fees and commission IB charges. What I do like about the year end results- was my profit to loss ratio. I had $2,140 in combined winning , $1061 in combined losing trades- Winning trades net 2x the losing trades. Total of 118 trades were made in 25 stocks and etfs over the year. 61 losing trades- 57 winning trades. So, despite more losers than winners-my attempt to allow a winning trade gain more and to cut losing trades quickly appears to be responsible for the overall net positive results. This approach "worked" during this period in this trading account- Will it work going forward in 2015? Compare against the DTN approach? Investment approach? Questions to consider later. End of Year snapshots:
1.1.2015 Considerations for INVESTING 1st- Trading last. Reading Swenson- 'Unconventional success" and he -like Bogle- points out how fees are what dilutes many investors returns. Let me use my trading account cost results compared to VOO- the low cost Vanguard S&P 500 fund.. THE VOO HAS A 1 YEAR RETURN OF 13.63 AS OF TODAY. https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/snapshot?FundId=0968&FundIntExt=INT Granted, this is a relatively small account - with only $1 commissions- but some added fees that occur monthly- If this was a larger account, those fees would be less proportionately- but I expect there are others out here also in similar situations with account size a detriment. Here is what is surprising as i reviewed the year statement -and then started to consider what the impact of the expenses were-commissions-fees- My actual nominal gain for the year was +16%- but after those expenses were deducted- return was 12.77% Then I started to think about what those fees cost from my decent performance- about 4% of the net 16% went to fees, and that tallied up to 23% of my profits went to fees. This is worth understanding in trading as well as in Investing- The fees the industry can extract keeps the industry alive - at the expense of the investor/trader. If I -as an active trader - have additional fees to compete against a passive index- my performance must not simply match, but outperform. If 20-25% of my gains are eaten up by the system- could i eliminate those excess costs and still achieve market matching- or beating results? reportedly a large % of professionals fail to match the market- Perhaps fees are hitting us larger than we realize-Hurting our performance. One goal is for me to analyze this cost expense further in my trading-and Investing. Another goal - what do i want to accomplish in my trading? Could i make just $10.00 a day clear ? $50/week? .... That seems very understated- But, Can I do that week in , week out? If i can, I will make $50 x $52 weeks = $2600.00 or a 27% gain above my present account value. VOO returned 13.63 % this year- with those that purchased through Vanguard not paying any commission and owning one of the least expensive low cost funds of all time, mimicing the S&P as a passive index with an expense ratio of $00.05% That 5 cents- not 5% I don't know if there are limits or time restrictions to trade in and out of these funds- but as i consider the fees and expense ratios charged in the Investment side with actively managed mutual funds charging much higher expense fees and not providing the exceptional out performance a professionally managed fund should deliver- it is worthy of evaluating what impact those higher fees are having in the overall return. To get outperformance- after fees- one has to really exceed the benchmark index. Anyone interested in learning more how fees may be eating into your investment returns can get more information- from a number of sources- John C Bogle - books and website- Vanguard.com Swenson- Unconventional Success The Ivy Portfolio-Mebane Faber- Daniel Solin- quick read- Smartest Portfolio http://www.ifa.com/ tons of video information-promoting their view of passive is better- There is an opposing point of view that suggests active management-portfolio allocation- rebalancing- is outside of many investors interests and desires to learn, and having a professional to take care of this is in the individuals best interests- But one should indeed compare results and costs for what they are receiving. For example- Where are your company's retirement accounts managed? Are you paying a commission fee (load) to them as they take your investment dollars and invest them in their products? There are likely a lot of folks that assume that this is the norm and not questioning whether it is in their best interests or not. It makes sense to get every dime of your employer match (free money) . Ideally, this would be in a no-load account and no commissions charged on the monies coming in- If there is a charge- front end load- class A or delayed back in charge- Class B or C- it would be worth talking to the powers that be to consider another investment company (Vanguard would be one- Tiaa- Creff another. If you can contribute greater than the employer match, but are paying fees and commissions- take those extra IRA dollars- or do a ROTH and open up an account with Ameritrade- or Vanguard with no fees, no commissions on many etf products- and Invest- dollar cost average in with monthly or weekly contributions- Start an account for the young ones! This year I will be giving consideration to moving my wifes & my Investment accounts over to a Vanguard account- as far as the trading account- I'll see what Friday brings- I have some freed cash- Make sure the stops are all set properly- may consider a short position- sds perhaps
As i got ready to head out this am, saw some green on the Futures, boosted the stop from $2.40 to @.54. Got taken out during the opening decline as the market tried to rally some-in the am. By $.02 ..it happens- I have to be prepared to use information- and make a decision without viewing the markets intraday. Remaining CURE position stopped out, IBB still holding above 303. My buy-stop order for SDS filled at 10:40 am $22.10